The Cook Political Report adjusted the ratings Monday for four Senate battles in favor of Democrats, as President Donald Trump’s leadership has resulted in an “increasingly sour national environment for Republicans.”
In Georgia, the crop of conservative primary candidates have struggled to distinguish themselves in a crowded field, without a clear front-runner or any endorsement from the president. Meanwhile, the incumbent Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff has been able to keep his powder dry and maintain a considerable fundraising edge over his opponents. CPR has moved that race out of the “Toss Up” category into “Lean Democrat.”
Another race that has shifted from uncertainty toward blue victory is the Senate battle in North Carolina, where Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley is facing off against Democratic former Governor Roy Cooper for Thom Tillis’s vacated seat. A recent poll by Quantus Insights saw Cooper secure a five-point lead over his opponent, continuing a positive trend since the beginning of the year.
In Ohio, former Senator Sherrod Brown is set to face off with Senator Jon Husted, who was appointed as a replacement for Vice President JD Vance. The Senate Leadership Fund, the main super PAC for Republicans in the upper chamber, is reportedly planning to spend a whopping $79 million to help Husted hold his seat. Still, CPR has moved that race from “Lean Republican” into the “Toss Up” column.
The CPR’s final leftward rating shift was for the race in Nebraska, where Independent Dan Osborn is back once again to duke it out in an increasingly chaotic primary election. In 2024, Osborn came within seven points of defeating establishment Republican Senator Deb Fischer, a remarkable feat for a progressive independent with zero name recognition in a solidly pro-Trump state. This time around, he will challenge Republican Senator Pete Ricketts. That race has been moved from “Solid Republican” to only “Likely Republican.”
Trump has put Republicans in a tough spot. Gas prices and inflation are up; employment and consumer sentiment are down. Trump’s reckless war in Iran continues to rack up an immense price tag, which will only grow if he makes good on his promise to install a military blockade around the Strait of Hormuz. (He had stated the blockade would begin at 10 a.m. EST on Monday, but as of publication, the deadline has come and gone with no confirmation that the blockade was in place.)
It’s only a matter of time before Trump’s disastrous leadership takes its toll on his own party members, and November is right around the corner.
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