We provide the Opta supercomputer’s UEFA Champions League match predictions for each of the 2025-26 quarter-final second legs.
It was a fascinating set of first-leg encounters in the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals last week.
Three of the four were won by the away team, setting up some interesting second legs for this coming Tuesday and Wednesday.
Bayern Munich, Arsenal and Atlético Madrid all took leads back home with them, defeating Real Madrid, Sporting CP and Barcelona, respectively.
We recently looked at the previous occasions that a team has lost a first leg at home in the Champions League knockout stages and managed to come back and progress. Spoiler: there aren’t many of them.
Paris Saint-Germain put the rest of the competition on notice again with a dominant performance over Liverpool in the other game, but with the Reds at home in the second leg, it would be foolish to rule them out just yet.
Ahead of this week’s second legs, we’ve powered up the Opta supercomputer to run 10,000 simulations of each match, looking at the chances of each team winning on the night, and also ultimately advancing.
Tuesday 14 April
Liverpool vs Paris Saint-Germain (0-2 agg)
These two met in the last 16 of this competition last season, with Paris Saint-Germain dominating the first leg in France, but losing 1-0. They were well on top again on Wednesday, but got their reward with a victory this time, albeit arguably not by as great a margin as they would have hoped.
A deflected goal from Désiré Doué and a fantastic second from Khvicha Kvaratskhelia following a 27-pass move ensured a 2-0 win for PSG, with Liverpool becoming the first team in the Champions League this season to fail to have a shot on target against the holders.
It was a very one-sided game at the Parc Des Princes, with Vitinha pulling the strings in midfield. The former Wolves man has completed more passes under high-intensity pressure than any other player in the Champions League this season (609), while he also has a better pass completion rate under high intensity pressure than anyone else (93% – min. 400 attempted).
Liverpool will still have some belief in a comeback, though. The power of Anfield in a European second leg has worked a treat several times in the past, not least against Barcelona in their famous Champions League semi-final in 2019, when the Reds overturned a 3-0 deficit from the first leg.
The Opta supercomputer does make Liverpool slight favourites to win on the night (39.6%), while a draw occurs in 22.8% of simulations, and PSG defeat them again, as they did on Merseyside last season, in the remaining 37.6%.
The visitors are obviously heavy favourites to advance, though, doing so in 85.8% of sims, while Liverpool manage an unlikely turnaround in 14.2%.
Atlético Madrid vs Barcelona (2-0 agg)
It was a frustrating first leg for Barcelona to say the least. They struggled to break down Atlético Madrid but seemed to be relatively in control of things until Pau Cubarsi’s red card in the 44th minute for bringing down Giuliano Simeone as the last man. Julián Alvarez’s stunning goal from the resulting free-kick really rubbed salt into the wounds.
Despite being down to 10 men, Barcelona dominated large parts of the game at the Camp Nou, but conceded again from the only shot the visitors mustered in the second half – from Alexander Sørloth – to give themselves a lot to do in the second leg in Madrid.
They are certainly familiar with one another. This will be the sixth time that Atlético and Barça have faced each other this season (2x La Liga, 2x Copa del Rey and 2x Champions League), which is their most meetings in a single campaign since 2013-14 (also six).
In their two games at the Metropolitano this season, Atlético won the first 4-0 in the Copa del Rey, but Barcelona edged a 2-1 victory just the other week in La Liga. They will need to win by at least two clear goals here, though.
Hansi Flick’s side are favourites to win on the night, doing so in 50.4% of the Opta supercomputer’s simulations, while Atlético finish the job with another victory in 27.1%, or a draw in 22.5%.
With a two-goal advantage and being at home, it is no surprise that Diego Simeone’s men have a healthy 79.6% chance of advancing to face Arsenal or Sporting in the semi-finals, but considering their plight, 20.4% is not a bad probability for Barcelona to somehow turn it around.
Wednesday 15 April
Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid (2-1 agg)
It was a thrill-a-minute game in the first leg as two of Europe’s biggest behemoths clashed in the Bernabéu.
Bayern Munich secured their first away win against Real Madrid since 2001 thanks to goals from Luis Díaz and Harry Kane, but Kylian Mbappé pulled one back in the second half to keep the tie very much alive.
Things could have been different had it not been for Manuel Neuer’s excellent performance for the visitors, making nine saves in total, though Bayern also missed a number of chances to increase their advantage.
Bayern’s victory at the Bernabéu was the 23rd time they have won away from home in the first leg of a knockout tie in the European Cup/Champions League. They have only been eliminated once before in the previous 22 ties, an away-goals defeat to Inter in the 2009-10 round of 16 (won 1-0 away, lost 3-2 at home).
Vincent Kompany’s men are fancied to complete the job at the Allianz Arena. The Opta supercomputer has them winning 56.7% of simulations on Wednesday, while the 20.3% drawn would also see them safely through to the semis to face PSG or Liverpool. Real Madrid are victorious in 23.0%. Of course, they would need to win by more than one goal to avoid extra-time and possibly penalties.
In terms of overall chances of advancing, Bayern do so in a whopping 83.7% of sims, compared to Madrid adding to their esteemed history in this competition with another comeback in the other 16.3%.
Arsenal vs Sporting CP (1-0 agg)
Dreams of a quadruple or even a treble are now gone for Arsenal after defeats in the EFL Cup final and the FA Cup quarters, but what would still be a sensational Premier League and Champions League double remains on the table.
The jitters have well and truly set in now, though, following the Gunners’ 2-1 league defeat to Bournemouth on Saturday. After Manchester City won at Chelsea on Sunday, the gap has closed to six points with City having a game in hand and they host Arsenal next weekend in a mouthwatering clash at the Etihad Stadium.
Arsenal were made to work hard in the first leg of this tie last week, but came away with a victory after a late Kai Havertz goal to bring a lead back to the Emirates Stadium, putting them in a very strong position.
Sporting had opportunities against Mikel Arteta’s side in the first leg, but couldn’t find the goal some of their build-up play deserved against the inspired figure of David Raya in between the Gunners’ sticks.
The Opta supercomputer fancies Arsenal’s chances of completing their passage to the final four with another win on home soil. The Gunners beat Sporting again in 61.9% of simulations, while a draw (21.6%) would also be enough. The Portuguese side make things interesting with an away victory in the remaining 16.5%.
Arsenal are the biggest favourites of all teams to advance to the semi-finals according to the supercomputer, doing so in 88.4% of simulations. Sporting are only able to upset the odds in north London 11.6% of the time.
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