Ever since the Ayatollahs took power in Iran in the late 1970s, Israeli political leaders have wanted to neutralise the country they regard as an existential threat. The Islamic Republic has been only too happy to play the bogeyman, incessantly declaring that the Jewish state should be wiped from the map of the world.
Few Israelis have been more vociferous advocates of dealing with Iran once and for all than long-serving Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who always knew that he had to harness the military might of the United States to get what he wanted.
Successive US presidents resisted Bibi’s blandishments including Bill Clinton during Netanyahu’s first term as prime minister from 1996 to 1999 and then, after he returned to office in 2009, Barack Obama, Joe Biden and even first-term Donald Trump held him off.
Until now. For all his pledges to be the peace president of “no more wars”, barely 15 months into his second term the increasingly imperial Trump has given Netanyahu what he wants: sending US forces to war against Iran as comrades in arms with Israel.
Much good may it do either of these autocratic leaders. They are quickly finding out that their declarations are mere words which do not necessarily become reality.
This is actually the second time Netanyahu has called in US forces. Last summer Trump claimed that the bunker-busting bombs of Operation Midnight Hammer had “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear weapons programme.
Except it turns out they did not obliterate it. In the 10-point peace plan which resulted in the current ceasefire and negotiations, Iran is demanding the right to continue its uranium enrichment programme. Israel’s displeasure at this cessation of violence manifested in its continued bombing of southern Lebanon, after Trump announced a deal negotiators believed included an end to attacks on its proxies, including Hezbollah.
The Pakistani intermediaries who negotiated the deal insist an end to the bombing in Lebanon was explicitly part of the deal. Vice President JD Vance claims this is a “misunderstanding” and that Iran would be “dumb” to allow it to collapse the talks. That, of course, may be just what Netanyahu is hoping for – given Trump’s threats to destroy a civilisation if agreement cannot be reached with Iran. Likening Iran to Nazi Germany, Israeli minister Amichai Chikli has already branded the ceasefire “a mistake”.
From Vladimir Putin to Xi Jinping and from Kim Jong-un to Viktor Orbán and Netanyahu, Trump has a long record of admiration for “strongman” leaders, with no regard as to whether they are democratic leaders or dictators. He has perhaps a special affinity for Netanyahu, since both came to power through free and fair elections but now have a strong interest in staying there come what may.
They need each other. Except for some fellow G7 leaders, Trump has met Netanyahu more often than any other foreign prime minister in both his terms. There were 10 meetings in his first term which resulted in golden relations, the moving of the US embassy to Jerusalem and the Abraham Accords with some Arab nations.
In this second term there have already been seven meetings between Trump and Netanyahu, in a much darker context. Trump facilitated the bombardment of Gaza, and has now set up his Board of Peace to control its future.
Their last and most fateful meeting took place in the Situation Room at the White House on 11 February this year. Few foreigners have ever been allowed into the US operations centre but Netanyahu delivered a multimedia presentation on the case for a joint attack on Iran.
According to The New York Times, several of the small group of senior US administration officials present at the secret meeting were convinced. Netanyahu’s first two objectives – decapitating the regime and crippling Iran’s infrastructure – looked achievable, and have indeed been largely accomplished. But there was scepticism of the Israelis’ prediction that a popular uprising would take place within days, followed by regime change. There was little discussion of the likelihood that Iran would block the Strait of Hormuz.
The director of the CIA, John Radcliffe, reportedly dismissed Netanyahu’s scenario as “farcical”. Secretary of State Marco Rubio called it “bullshit”. Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Dan “raisin’” Caine, warned that the Israelis “oversell and their plans are not always well-developed”. The isolationist Vance was conveniently absent, but let it be known he feared escalation into a regional war. But Trump seemed convinced and they all backed him publicly from then on as he started using Netanyahu’s talking points. Yet Trump has subsequently rolled back on some of them – as circumstances have not evolved as Netanyahu predicted.
Netanyahu needed this war to vindicate his hawkish leadership. Recent opinion polls show 78 per cent of Israelis support the war in Iran. Yet three weeks ago, a Times of Israel poll suggested his Likud party would likely win 28 of the 120 seats in the Knesset, a fall from the 32 it holds presently and leaving his coalition short of a majority on 51 seats. And so far, the polls have not shifted in Netanyahu’s favour.
For Trump it was a war of choice, born out of his bombastic view of his own and his country’s abilities. As yet neither has achieved their main aim. The Iranian regime seems consolidated with the shocking prospect that the US will support its right to charge ships for passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
In the short run the damage has been done to Trump. His Maga movement is split on involvement in foreign wars. And for the first time in polls since 2001, American public opinion is more in favour of the Palestinians than Israel, while split in opposite directions between Democrats and Republicans.
Trump can get out and leave the mess behind for others to clear up. But Netanyahu, having overplayed his hand and influence over Trump, still faces what he believes is an existential threat to Israel from Iran, and now with fewer and fewer friends prepared to come to his aid. With Israeli elections due in October it’s a toss-up which of the two autocrats, Trump or Netanyahu, will be the first to crumble into the sands of the Middle East.
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