Now that Donald Trump has backed off his threat to obliterate a nation of 93 million people, his propagandists are already retconning it into proof of his Solomon-like foresight and wisdom. The new spin is that the war with Iran temporarily ended in a ceasefire precisely because he made this threat, forcing Iran to renegotiate on more favorable terms.
“Iran ultimately understood—their ability to produce, to generate power, to fuel their terrorist regime—was in our hands,” Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth told reporters Wednesday, in response to questions about Trump’s threat. Hegseth insisted Trump’s vow to eradicate “a whole civilization” persuaded Iran that he could crush their ability to “export energy” and thus end the entire basis for the regime’s existence.
“That type of threat is what brought them to the place where they effectively said, ‘We want to cut this deal,’” Hegseth continued. This talking point has gone out widely: GOP Representative Mike Lawler of New York, a top target of Democrats, suggested that due to Trump’s “extreme rhetoric,” the Iranians “understand for once that they need to actually negotiate.”
But there’s a small problem with this spin. It’s that the Iranians were already negotiating with Trump before the war started. Trump largely sabotaged those negotiations, because he was talked into believing the war would be easy and deliver a quick burst of glory. Trump’s approach to the talks made success impossible—deliberately.
As The New York Times’s magnum opus on this reveals, Trump had decided to take the plunge (all that remained uncertain was the timing) weeks before those talks with Iran hit their critical phase. This was partly because Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu talked Trump into believing the risks of war were manageable—that strikes could render the Iranian regime too debilitated to close the Strait of Hormuz (which proved disastrously wrong). U.S. intelligence officials disputed Israeli confidence about all this, the Times reports, but Trump brushed off these warnings—because he “appeared to think it would be a very quick war.”
The pre-war talks with Iran were doomed because Trump shifted between objectives in a way that ensured that outcome. The core issue was supposed to be ending Iran’s capacity to develop a nuke. But the Times also reveals that Iran was prepared to make meaningful concessions on that front, yet Trump officials effectively decided only regime change was acceptable, ensuring war.
For Hegseth’s story to be true, Iran would have to be more willing to give Trump the concessions he wants than before, due to his mighty threats. But, while the war did badly degrade the Iranian military and kill many senior leaders, here’s what else we know: The regime is still there in more radicalized and brutal form. The strait is being reopened, but as Ben Rhodes notes, the regime’s control over it now appears tighter. The fate of Iran’s nuclear material remains as indeterminate as ever.
Will talks now get Trump a better deal than he might have gotten the first time? Maybe, but Iran seems emboldened by its survival to demand more this time. The points that Trump accepted as the basis for talks appear more friendly to Iran than before.
“Iran is at the table because Trump now appears willing to base negotiations on a wider range of Iranian demands,” Sina Toossi, senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told me. He cites Trump’s apparent willingness to entertain total relief from U.S. sanctions, continued control over the strait, and some form of uranium enrichment: “The civilizational threat did not factor into the ceasefire.”
So what did Trump’s threat—which would have been a massive war crime—actually accomplish? It’s exclusively negative. As Bill Kristol writes:
Trump’s war has further shaken any confidence our allies might still have in us. It will be seen as confirmation that Trump’s United States of America has become just another rogue nation in the international arena, if a less disciplined and cunning one than Putin’s Russia or Xi’s China.
Kristol is referring to the overall war’s impact, but Trump’s threat of civilizational erasure is also a factor in ensuring these outcomes. That the American president eagerly vowed to obliterate a nation of 93 million is bad enough. On top of that, the U.S. political system appeared utterly powerless to stop it—largely because one of our major parties revealed that it will not step up even when its leader threatens unthinkably massive war crimes and even genocide.
Brian Beutler points out that Republicans who wouldn’t challenge Trump’s maniacal designs got lucky that he blinked. Next time they might not be so lucky—and neither might we. Indeed, it’s also worth asking what sort of dispiriting toll this glimpse of our profound powerlessness in the face of Trump’s madness will take on the millions of Americans who find the idea of their country threatening such wanton, indiscriminate destruction extremely troubling, which surely includes a lot of ordinary Republicans.
One can hope that this galvanizes millions into voting against the GOP in the midterms—and it probably will help—but translating this into serious checks against a rerun of this insanity is a tall order. That, too, is a painful realization to endure.
In a sense, Hegseth’s spin is doing us a public service. By insisting Trump’s threat drove Iran to the table, it should force a reassessment of why the original talks fell apart, why we went to war in the first place, and what Trump’s vicious, sadistic bluster actually accomplished. This is a story of failure all around, and the threats, too, accomplished only bad things. Which reveals another layer to this catastrophe, blowing another hole in Trump’s claim of victory.
That’s because the core story that Trump and Hegseth have told about this war is that it’s showcasing that American strength and power are supreme, unquestioned, and can accomplish literally anything. That includes the mere threat to unleash that power: Because the specter of American military violence and terror can make literally anyone do anything that Trump wills, maximal threats of annihilation are inherently good. Hegseth constantly preens about America’s superlative killing power with unnerving relish and bloodlust in order to tell that story.
But it’s taken a big hit. Yes, the war showcased awesome technological prowess. But that cannot accomplish literally anything Trump wants it to. Nor can threatening to rain it down on millions innocent people with unconstrained brutality and savagery. Trump and Hegseth set out to prove otherwise, and at this, too, they failed miserably.
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