Using the FRACAS prediction model, here’s a look at golfers either on the rise or the decline since the 2025 Tour Championship.
The arrival of the Masters this week comes 14 weeks into the 2026 PGA Tour’s season, but for many golf fans, the year’s first major signals the starting point.
Golf never truly has a break. Since the 2025 Tour Championship last August, there have been 21 events on the PGA Tour: eight to wrap up 2025 and 13 this year. We could also count the international tours, including the DP World Tour, LIV Golf and Asian Tour, that also feature some of the top golfers in the world.
For fans who don’t follow the “offseason” of golf, what’s changed since the end of the 2025 PGA Tour season to the action at Augusta National? LIV remains a storyline, with big names such as Brooks Koepka and Patrick Reed leaving that tour to rejoin the PGA Tour. LIV also signed some new players, though none who are true needle-movers.
Rather than get bogged down with the endless politics of golf, let’s focus on the players themselves. Who’s gotten better heading into the Masters? Whose game is in a truly concerning state? Which new faces should we be getting familiar with?
How We’re Measuring Performance
We’re using long-term FRACAS (Field Rating and Course-Adjusted Strokes Gained) as our barometer for golfer performance.
For our simulations, we use both current form FRACAS and long-term FRACAS to gauge a golfer’s current ability. Golfers have a certain baseline of performance they tend to regress toward.
Anyone who’s ever golfed can tell you about the tiniest changes in a swing that can make the difference between a feeling you have a chance on every hole or you have to yell “Fore!” before you even approach the ball.
It’s no different for professional golfers. The best in the world can have stretches when they play like an average PGA golfer, and vice versa, but long-term FRACAS creates a stable understanding of how good a player will likely be in the future.
Let’s use J.J. Spaun as an example. Prior to his win at the Valero Texas Open this past weekend, his current form was just above PGA average (or about 100th in the world). His long-term FRACAS was still the 20th-best golfer in the world. A winning performance jumped him essentially back up to his long-term baseline. In short, he’s shown he can do it consistently before, so the modeling has more faith that this isn’t a blip.
Brian Campbell was a two-time winner on the PGA Tour last year, but his long-term baseline currently slots him as FRACAS’ 364th-best golfer in the world. The model was not fooled by his outlier performances, and sure enough, he surrounded those wins with just one other top-20 finish in 2025.
To make it easier, we’ll just use FRACAS for the remainder of the story. (Also, see our Golf Advanced Stats Zone.)
J.J. Spaun’s Valero Texas Open win heading into the Masters was the third of his career.The Best in the world.
When the 2025 season ended, FRACAS’ top six golfers in the world were Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm, Rory McIlroy, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood and Bryson DeChambeau. Heading into the Masters, the order is exactly the same.
McIlroy, the defending Masters champion, has played a bit worse while Schauffele and Fleetwood have improved the most, but none of the six have changed positions at the top of the golf rankings. In fact, only two golfers who were in the top 10 – Joaquin Niemann and Justin Thomas, who we’ll get to later – are currently out of the top 10.
PGA veterans on the precipice of the top 10.
U.S. golfer Cameron Young finished the 2025 season 36th in FRACAS. Since then, he has five top-10s in eight starts, capped by a win at The Players. He currently sits 12th in FRACAS and has jumped half a stroke over average in that time.
Si Woo Kim (South Korea) has seen almost the same jump in FRACAS while moving from 39th to 16th. While he’s without a win since 2023 and missed the 2025 Tour Championship entirely, he’s finished in the top 15 in six of his nine tournaments this year, so he’s playing like a golfer who should get a win soon.
Former PGA stars, staples who are in concerning territory.
We mentioned Justin Thomas (USA) earlier as a member of the FRACAS top 10 at the end of September. He now sits at 26th, losing 0.42 strokes per round over his previous baseline.
It’s been a frustrating couple of years for Thomas, who has just one win since 2022 after winning at least once every year from 2014 through ’22. A 26th ranking is still terrific, but he’s just not one of golf’s elite anymore.
Justin Thomas finished in a tie for 30th in his most-recent tournament, the Valspar Championship March 19-22.From 2021 to 2024, Billy Horschel (USA) had five wins on the PGA Tour. He’s always been a golfer who goes through extreme hot and cold stretches, but now the cold stretches are the standard. After being a consistent presence inside the top 50 of FRACAS for several years, Horschel has dropped out of the top 100.
A tale of two college stars.
Luke Clanton (USA) was a hot name during his amateur years. He finished fifth at the Wyndham and second at the RSM Classic in 2024, and looked like he could be the next great Florida State product on tour. He turned pro after his 2025 college season but has just one top-25 since then. While FRACAS never fully bought into the hype, Clanton has dropped from the 128th ranking to the 291st.
On the opposite end of the spectrum is Jackson Koivun (USA), a collegiate phenom at Auburn. He has very limited professional experience, but his last four PGA events have gone T-11, T-6, T-5 and T-4. FRACAS does not think this is at all fluky and currently has him at 27th. He’s only a junior, and in the NIL era in college sports, there’s no guarantee he’ll turn pro this year, but when he gets his invites to some of the summer PGA events, keep an eye out for him.
Three international golfers on the rise.
Daniel Hillier (New Zealand) is coming off a win at the New Zealand Open. He’s up to 83rd in the world by Official World Golf Ranking though FRACAS has him a bit lower at 145th. He was 329th in FRACAS six months ago and has really turned it on in 2026 with the win and second- (Dubai) and third-place finishes (Bahrain) on the DP World Tour.
Jayden Schaper (South Africa) was featured in one of our “underrated golfers” articles in 2021, and he’s about to crack the top 100 of FRACAS. He had two wins and second- and third-place finishes on the DP World Tour in 2025, jumping him from 239th to 108th.
Angel Ayora (Spain) hasn’t won a tournament since 2024, but since late August, he has a whopping 11 top-10 finishes on the DP World Tour. Over that time, he’s moved from FRACAS’ 283rd golfer all the way up to 133rd.
These three are unlikely to be household names stateside for a bit yet, but once the international schedule heats up in mid-summer, they could all be golfers competing on Sundays.
For more coverage, follow on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
As the Masters Arrives, Which Golfers Have Improved or Declined Since Last Season? Opta Analyst.
Hence then, the article about as the masters arrives which golfers have improved or declined since last season was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( As the Masters Arrives, Which Golfers Have Improved or Declined Since Last Season? )
Also on site :
- Thousands of Americans Face New IRS Deadline to Avoid Penalties
- JP Morgan Chase head warns of unexpected interest rate shocks as a result of Iran war
- The Witcher 3 multiplayer mod's latest major update adds the only mount you'll ever need - your fellow players