Europe and the UK insist they will not be dragged into the Iran war, but as pressure from the US grows and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, they could be forced to play a greater role.
On the same day that Donald Trump posted on Truth Social “Go get your own oil!”, an apparent message for countries that import energy via the key route, the European Union (EU) called on citizens to work from home, drive and fly less and save energy.
Sir Keir Starmer, the Prime Minister, has maintained that any UK involvement will be purely defensive, with other European nations similarly saying they will not join military action against Iran. But behind the scenes, economic and diplomatic pressure on the allies is intensifying. The question now is how long Europe can endure a closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
Oil and gas prices have risen sharply since the Iran war began. European leaders worry the crisis could match shortages experienced during Covid or after Russia invaded Ukraine and the allies scrambled for alternatives to Russian energy.
Jan Rosenow, professor of energy and climate policy at the University of Oxford, said that supplies are so tight that any further disruption could lead to even more “dramatic” price rises and debilitating shortages.
A problem with another supplier such as the US could destabilise Europe’s energy security. Rosenow said that if the US decided to reduce gas exports to Europe to keep domestic prices down ahead of the midterm elections, it could “send [European] markets into a tailspin”.
The US has become the biggest LNG exporter to Europe and the UK since Russian energy purchases were slashed.
Further down the line, a colder winter could also cause major issues.
Meanwhile, Trump has upped the ante and responded with a familiar threat: if Iran is not Europe’s war, then Ukraine need not be America’s. He has again raised the prospect of scaling back support for Nato and Ukraine unless European allies do more. In an interview with Al Jazeera last week, Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the US might “re-examine” its relationship with Nato and described the European response as “very disappointing”.
Mark Rutte, Nato’s secretary-general, is backing the US’s actions in Iran and urging greater European involvement in securing the Strait of Hormuz. “Everybody agrees this strait cannot stay closed. It has to open up again as soon as possible,” Rutte said, adding that allies were working on it.
The UK is among those allies as it hosted a 40-nation meeting last Thursday to discuss a coalition of countries willing to secure the key waterway once a ceasefire has been agreed.
Several European military experts told The i Paper that both the EU and the UK could, technically, deploy naval assets to the Strait of Hormuz. But doing so would be costly and risky. Any such operation would endanger European naval troops on duty, require billions-worth of military assets and come at the expense of national security. Europe’s opposition to military involvement appears to be not only driven by political or moral concerns but rooted in military shortages.
“We only have so many ships,” said Jurgen Ehle, a retired German rear admiral turned European military adviser.
He said any military mission to escort cargo vessels would require the EU and the UK to send frigates equipped with air-defence systems to repel Iranian drones and missiles. “Germany only has three frigates with air-defence systems,” he said. “One of them is currently patrolling the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, and the North Atlantic to protect sea lines of communication,” he said, “while the second recently finished a Nato operation and the third is in maintenance and training.”
Ehle added that these assets are also currently needed to guard the coasts against Russia. “There is a lot of Russian activity in the Baltic and the North Atlantic; it’s like Cold War déjà vu,” he said.
Bence Nemeth, a senior lecturer in the Defence Studies department at King’s College London, expressed similar concerns. He said that Type 45 destroyers in the UK are equipped with air defence and anti-missile capabilities and could technically be deployed to the strait. “The UK has six such destroyers,” but usually roughly half of them are in maintenance, upgrade or training, Nemeth added.
“Two to three Type 45 destroyers are available at any given time,” he said. In theory these could be deployed to the Gulf, “but then there might not be enough destroyers for national defence or fulfilling Nato commitments,” Nemeth added.
Eva Pejsova, Japan chair at the Centre for Security, Diplomacy and Strategy of the Brussels School of Governance, said that even if the allies sent three to four ships, it may not be enough to secure the waterway. “And, losing a frigate worth hundreds of millions of euros doesn’t justify escorting a tanker,” she added.
“Ideally, we would need two destroyers to escort about six tankers,” Nemeth said. Nearly 2,000 ships are stranded.
The biggest obstacle to any European or UK military role during an active conflict is the risk to their sailors.
“Currently, 2,000 ships are stuck in the Gulf, many carrying oil and gas, and they are very vulnerable. If European members of Nato try to bring them out, they need a lot of assets, a lot of ships, and there is a high risk they would be attacked,” Ehle added. “If there are swarms of drone attacks, they could hit a vessel. Air defence doesn’t ensure complete safety.”
How far Europe goes in Hormuz may depend on how long the war lasts, and how much damage it does to the economy and transatlantic relations. But the allies do appear keen to act. If they do not join the war, they may still agree to police Hormuz once active fighting subsides.
There is an existing model in place that could be strengthened and revived. In 2019, after Iranian forces seized the British tanker Stena Impero, France proposed a European maritime surveillance mission in the Strait of Hormuz (EMASOH).
“The military pillar was accompanied by a diplomatic mission led by senior diplomats, ensuring dialogue and shared real-time maritime situational awareness with regional parties, such as Qatar, Oman and others,” Pejsova said.
But it went into “sleep mode,” or what is referred to as “vigilance mode” in 2024, she said. “The allies felt the situation was stabilised, and some of those resources were shifted to Aspides,” the EU mission in the Red Sea.
Pejsova argued that EMASOH and its military pillar, Agenor, provide a basic structure that could be revived for a future operation. But it would be a defensive mission, only once the current conflict has ended.
For now, Europeans hope Washington sees all they are doing to support US operations in Iran and that they have managed to find some support within the American establishment.
European allies “have been extremely supportive”, said US Air Force General Alexus Grynkewich, Supreme Allied Commander Europe of Nato, at a recent Senate hearing, in reference to the use of European bases.
US forces direct drone attacks from the Ramstein base in Germany, refuel jets at air bases in France and Italy, and load munitions at RAF Fairford in the UK.
“There’s much more support in Europe for things that are ongoing in the Middle East right now” than is being discussed in the press, Grynkewich added.
Europeans are hoping that narrative will land at the White House and help ease the pressure – for now.
Hence then, the article about trump could worsen a huge uk weakness while demanding it joins his war was published today ( ) and is available on inews ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
Read More Details
Finally We wish PressBee provided you with enough information of ( Trump could worsen a huge UK weakness while demanding it joins his war )
Also on site :
- Britney Spears Spends Time With Diane Warren and Molly Shannon After DUI
- 'You should resign': Mamata hits out at PM Modi's silence on Pakistan's threat to strike Kolkata
- This Guitarist Helped Shape One of the Most Iconic Sounds of the '90s