We look ahead to Tuesday’s international friendly at Wembley Stadium with our England vs Japan prediction and preview. Harry Kane leads the list of Three Lions regulars to have re-joined Thomas Tuchel’s squad.
England vs Japan: The Key Stats
England are the favourites, with the Opta supercomputer handing them a 59.6% win probability to Japan’s 19.3%. Three Lions captain Harry Kane has scored 10 goals across his last 10 international appearances. England are unbeaten in their three games against Japan.Some FIFA World Cup hopefuls got a chance to show England boss Thomas Tuchel what they can do last Friday.
It is safe to say some took their chance more than others in a 1-1 draw with Uruguay.
Harry Kane, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Anthony Gordon, Elliot Anderson, Marc Guehi, Morgan Rogers and Ezri Konsa were among the regulars of the Tuchel era to be rested for the Uruguay game, while Dean Henderson and Nico O’Reilly, who surely will be in the final squad, fitness permitting, were also given a break.
In their absence, England were not at their best, though they were only denied a victory by Federico Valverde’s late penalty.
Uruguay’s equaliser ended a run of 629 minutes without conceding a goal for England, with Valverde’s goal the first they had let in since June 2025 vs Senegal (3-1 defeat).
Debutant James Garner drew Tuchel’s praise for his performance in midfield, with the German labelling the Everton man as England’s “mini Valverde”. Ben White marked his return to the fold with a goal and Harry Maguire was impressive at centre-back.
White became the 34th Arsenal player to score for England, with this the joint-most scorers for the Three Lions from one club (now level with Manchester United and Aston Villa).
But Dominic Calvert-Lewin missed a decent chance, and the Leeds United striker, along with Fikayo Tomori and Aaron Ramsdale, has now left the camp, with the rested regulars re-joining the squad ahead of Tuesday’s friendly with Japan at Wembley.
However, Tuchel will be shorn of John Stones, who has returned to Manchester City for an assessment on an injury, as well as Rice and Saka, who have headed back to Arsenal. Noni Madueke and Adam Wharton, meanwhile, suffered knocks against Uruguay and have also returned to their clubs.
There are still plenty of top-class options for Tuchel to choose from, though, as he gets one last chance to assess his players prior to picking his preliminary squad for the World Cup.
Kane, of course, is the headline name. The captain is guaranteed his spot in the squad and is arguably in the form of his career.
He has already netted 48 goals in all competitions for Bayern Munich this season.
Kane has scored 10 goals across his last 10 international appearances, while he could score 2+ goals in successive matches for the national team for the first time since November 2021, when he did so against Albania (three) and San Marino (four).
Anderson is likely to slot into midfield, but with Rice and Wharton missing, Garner will surely be confident of getting another shot, especially after he was so impressive against Uruguay.
No other player on the pitch could match Garner’s four chances created, while he also led the way for passes in the final third (15) and won six of his nine duels.
Jordan Henderson is a tried, tested and trusted member of Tuchel’s squad, but a Garner-Anderson midfield axis would be a more progressive selection.
Plus, Garner’s set-piece proficiency could also be useful.
Ten of England’s last 18 goals have come via set-pieces (5x corner, 3x free-kick, 2x penalty), with 40% of those being scored or assisted by Arsenal players.
But with Rice and Saka absent, Tuchel will have to find a new set-piece taker. Garner has created 21 chances from set-pieces in the Premier League this season, which ranks fifth in the competition. Anderson, meanwhile, ranks sixth, with 20. So, England have options.
England have scored in their last 21 matches in all competitions ever since a 0-0 draw with Slovenia at Euro 2024. It is their longest scoring streak since a 32-game run between 1902 and 1910.
And with Kane, Gordon and Rogers back in the fold, Tuchel will be hoping to give the Wembley crowd plenty to get their teeth into from an attacking perspective.
Phil Foden, meanwhile, has a point to prove after an underwhelming display against Uruguay, and it would be fair to say the Man City attacker faces a scrap to be sure of his place on the plane this summer.
Marcus Rashford, on the other hand, completed six dribbles against Uruguay, his most in an England game since November 2018 against Croatia (seven), and twice as many as he has completed in a game at club level this season (three being his most for Barcelona).
With Gordon and Rogers back, Rashford may well find himself on the bench, but he certainly did more than Foden to play himself into contention.
Japan, though, are unbeaten in their last seven matches against European nations (W6 D1), winning each of their last three – against Germany, Türkiye and Scotland.
They have won four straight games against European teams twice before, in May 2009 and February 2013.
Junya Ito got the decisive goal against Scotland on Saturday. He has recorded four goal involvements across his last three matches (one goal, three assists) and could score in successive matches for the national team for the first time since September 2023 (run of three).
England vs Japan Head-to-Head
England are unbeaten in their three games against Japan, beating them 2-1 in both June 1995 in the Umbro Cup and in a May 2010 friendly, while they shared a 1-1 draw in June 2004.
An Asian nation has never previously beaten England in 10 attempts (D4 L6) – this is the Three Lions’ first game against an Asian team since a 6-2 win over IR Iran in November 2022 at the World Cup.
England have won just two of their last seven friendly matches (D2 L3), having won 12 consecutively between 2018 and 2023 beforehand.
England vs Japan Prediction
England came out on top in 59.6% of our model’s 10,000 data-led sims, while Japan were victorious in 19.3%.
There is a 21.1% chance of a draw.
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England vs Japan Prediction: Harry Kane Among Three Lions Regulars Back in the Fold Opta Analyst.
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