How the Sabres became the NHL’s newest Stanley Cup contender ...Middle East

Kristen Shilton

Kristen Shilton

ESPN NHL reporter Kristen Shilton is a national NHL reporter for ESPN.

 and 

Greg Wyshynski

Greg Wyshynski

Senior NHL writer Greg Wyshynski is ESPN’s senior NHL writer.

Multiple Authors

Mar 31, 2026, 07:30 AM ET

The Buffalo Sabres are exemplifying why being a “wagon” became a part of sports lexicon. Finally, everyone’s on board. And we aren’t just talking about the fan base.

It took a seismic shift from within the Sabres’ own dressing room to turn the tide on a 2025-26 season that headed early on toward disaster. Buffalo’s vaunted, deeply talented young core was supposed to lead the team back to the playoffs and end its historic postseason drought at 14 seasons.

But things weren’t trending in that direction for the Sabres in the early months — until suddenly they were as Buffalo became one of the hottest teams in the NHL.

What had to happen for Buffalo to go from near the NHL’s basement to its penthouse? We examined the analytics, studied trends and gathered insights — from inside and outside the organization — to answer that question.

Basically: Are the Buffalo Sabres for real? And can they parlay this run of success into a Stanley Cup?

What had to change for Buffalo to soar?

The 2025-26 season began with Buffalo aiming to end its 14-year playoff drought. But nothing was going to plan. On Dec. 8 — only two months into the season — the Sabres were 30th in the league in points percentage (.448) with an 11-14-4 record. Those postseason hopes were already in danger.

One week later, general manager Kevyn Adams was fired and replaced by Jarmo Kekalainen. Head coach Lindy Ruff would remain in place, attempting to steer Buffalo out of its skid.

And he did. Or rather, the team did.

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Since Adams was let go on Dec. 15, Buffalo holds the best record in the NHL (31-7-4), is giving up the fewest goals against per game (2.60) and is second only to the Tampa Bay Lightning in scoring (3.76 goals per game). It has been a remarkable 180 that left a stunned hockey world at large asking: how?

“We had to have a few meetings,” captain Rasmus Dahlin said. “Eventually it just clicked. We realized that it’s us in here that’s been the problem. We can blame other guys, but it’s us in here that really had to do it. And we came together and started playing better, and went through that adversity together.”

Dahlin — who went viral this month by declaring the key to Buffalo’s burgeoning team chemistry was to “drink beers” — has been weighed down by the Sabres’ struggles since arriving as the team’s No. 1 pick in 2018. Buffalo has come close to breaking its playoff drought in recent seasons, but there was always something missing. Addressing that void took longer than it should have given the Sabres’ skill level.

“We’re working really hard out there,” Dahlin said. “We’re playing solid defense. I think that’s where our game is coming from, with backchecking, blocking shots, all that. That’s how you win games. We’ve been through a lot the last few years. Now we know what is making us successful, and it’s coming to work and working really, really hard. Winning is hard. We know that, so it’s the hard work that we need to keep doing.”

Jason Zucker is well-traveled through a 15-year career and he can attest that often the answer to what ails a team isn’t all that complicated. There’s a reason coaches preach the importance of those “little things.” At some point the players recognize them too — and that’s what can turn a season on its head.

“It’s honestly just finding a consistent game,” Zucker said. “I don’t think there’s a single thing we can put our finger on and say, ‘That was it, that was what did it.’ I think it’s a combination of guys stepping up at different times, and goaltenders playing well, and learning how to close out close games, and doing the right things. When you can commit to those things game in, game out, that’s when it clicks.”

There’s due credit to Ruff for facilitating that from behind the bench. The makeup of this Sabres team is unlike ones Ruff has coached previously in Buffalo or elsewhere. Those variations have created a dynamic for him to maximize.

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“I think I’ve had [good] depth in the past, but the depth has usually been young guys,” Ruff said. “This is a little bit different right now. Some of the depth that we have, and we have a lot of it, is more veteran guys. That’s probably the biggest difference for me.”

Zucker said there wasn’t necessarily an identifiable change in Ruff right after Adams was let go. It was more that his messaging came across in new ways, landing with, perhaps, a more attentive audience.

“Honestly, I think it was an emphasis prior [to Adams’ firing] that we had to do the right things more often,” Zucker said. “But for whatever reason, it wasn’t clicking all the way with us. And now it’s becoming more of an emphasis within the room again, and we are executing that at the right times and closing out games. We had heard it before and now it’s happening.”

Also, the Sabres aren’t so hard on themselves when things don’t go right. Goaltender Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen points to a growth in mindset “as individuals and a group” to stay the course and trust their systems regardless of the outcome.

“When you’re just playing solid hockey, it helps the confidence,” Luukkonen said. “It helps to know that we have a rhythm in our game that works. I feel like even the games we lose, there’s usually some positives to take out. Even when it’s not our best game, we are able to kind of crawl our way back and be in a position to win. We have a style of hockey that has been working for us. And I feel like in every game, we kind of find something we have to improve on, but then we also have the system that works for us.”

Will that continue to serve the Sabres when the playoffs arrive?

Is their goal-scoring rate sustainable?

The Sabres maximize their opportunities better than almost any team in the NHL.

From the span beginning Dec. 9, Buffalo was second in the NHL in goals per game (3.73) in their next 45 games, topped only by Nikita Kucherov and the Lightning (4.00). Yet the Sabres were only 17th in shots on goal per game (27.6) during that span. They don’t deal in volume. They rely on their goal scorers to finish the chances they create, which they do quite well.

Buffalo has 13 players with double-digit goals. In that same span since Dec. 9, the Sabres had a team shooting percentage of 13.6%, which was second behind Tampa Bay; and an 11.2% shooting percentage at 5-on-5, which was fifth in that span.

“The main reason that the Sabres are winning games this season is that they’re converting their chances into goals well,” Micah Blake McCurdy of HockeyViz.com said.

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The team’s goals vs. expected goals is around 13%, which is easily top-five in the league this season.

Vin Masi of ESPN Research sees the Sabres’ numbers from high-danger scoring areas as a microcosm of their offensive game. Stathletes has a metric called total slot involvement, which is the sum of their slot shot attempts and successful passes to the slot and puck carries to the slot. Most of their numbers here are middling, adding up to 22nd in total slot involvement per game.

“However, once they get there, they are making the most,” Masi said. “Their shooting percentage is first overall on shots from the slot and second overall on shots between the dots and from the inner slot.”

Combined with their stellar goaltending, this goal-scoring rate has led to some impressive results.

“This is a team that has generally outperformed their underlying [numbers] in the past few seasons due to the scoring talent on the roster,” said Jack Fraser, co-founder of HockeyStats.com. “Their PDO isn’t crazy, but they’re on pace for a goal differential almost 50 goals better than what the baseline expectation is based on their shot quality for and against.”

Can this shooting success continue in the playoffs?

“The Sabres’ finishing talent is legitimate, but all finishing talent is inherently streaky, at every level of quality,” McCurdy said. “Building a team around it makes you a little more vulnerable to cold spells that are extremely unlikely to stop a team from making the playoffs, but can easily lose them a playoff series.”

Mike Kelly of NHL Network is also wary of a cool down.

“From a process standpoint, there is cause for concern during the heater the Sabres have been on since early December,” he said. “Expected goals for and against are similar to what they were earlier in the season when things were not going well.”

Will Buffalo ‘river hockey’ translate to playoffs?

It’s undeniable that the Sabres are one of the NHL’s most entertaining teams this season, thanks to their goal-scoring prowess and the jubilant emotions of a franchise finally ending an epic postseason drought.

But there’s a long-standing tradition for “fun” teams in the NHL, in which doubters question whether their technique can succeed when the action tightens up in the playoffs. Whether it was the “Young Guns” Washington Capitals or Jon Cooper’s Lightning, those debates led to crises of conscience … until they were silenced by Stanley Cup wins.

The Sabres entered that tradition via Elliotte Friedman’s Sportsnet column on March 19, when he wrote: “I think there are a lot of people around the league who are happy to see Buffalo rising. It’s been too long and their fans deserve it. If there’s any question, it is: Can their style work during grind-time? ‘It’s river hockey,’ one opposing player said, ‘although they are very good at it.'”

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Luukkonen would agree what the Sabres have going is a great thing — and, to his mind, utterly sustainable.

“We have a young, skillful, good skating team, so we have to trust that,” he said. “It’s the other stuff we’ve tried that doesn’t really work in our favor. And as long as we play skilled and speed hockey, I feel like that’s something we’re good at and something that’s been working out for us and will keep working for us.”

River hockey, pond hockey, firewagon hockey … this style goes by many names, but they all essentially mean the same thing: freewheeling offense in front of below-average defense. But the question facing the Sabres is whether that offense can remain freewheeling in a tight-checking playoff series.

“While they are making some of their own luck, it does not stand to reason that it would continue when the games are higher checking, and scoring chances are more difficult to come by,” said Rachel Kryshak, the data analyst behind Betalytics and a prospects writer for ESPN.

A big part of the Sabres’ offensive game is their ability to create off the rush. Masi said that as of March 24, Buffalo led the NHL in rush goals and got the third-highest percentage of their non-empty-net goals off the rush, to go along with the highest shooting percentage on shot attempts off the rush.

“Will that be sustainable in the postseason where we’re led to believe it’s more of a grind?” Masi asked.

Fraser wonders about what’s really happening under the hood.

“The Sabres are a good team, but I don’t think we should discard the usual skepticism over a team running red-hot just because it’s a good story,” he said. “We have them dead average in expected goal differential, and I know that proprietary models have them in the same range.”

Can the goaltending remain this dominant?

Hockey is a simple game: get saves, win games. Hot goaltending can do everything from win a coach the Jack Adams Award to turn a playoff also-ran into a division champ.

Between Alex Lyon and Luukkonen, along with a handful of games from Colten Ellis, the Sabres have had a startling amount of saves. Last season, Buffalo was 31st in the NHL in team save percentage (.879). This season, the Sabres are third (.901) behind the Colorado Avalanche and Minnesota Wild.

Kryshak notes that during a recent 20-game stretch, the Sabres’ goalies saved nearly 20 goals more than expected — an average of a goal per game.

Lyon, 33, has had stretches in his career of pure dominance. Such as when he went 6-1-1 down the stretch to get the Florida Panthers into the 2023 playoffs, where they shocked the NHL by upsetting the record-breaking Boston Bruins in a seven-game first-round series before losing to Vegas in the Stanley Cup Final. Lyon started the first three games of the Boston series before ceding the crease back to Sergei Bobrovsky.

Lyon was in a rut this season for Buffalo, having gone 0-2-3 in his previous five games, when he was called into action against the Edmonton Oilers on Dec. 9 when starter Ellis was pulled after 19 minutes because of a concussion. Lyon made 21 saves for the win. He would go 17-2-1 with a .920 save percentage and a 2.33 goals-against average in his next 20 decisions.

“This is a guy that thinks the game at such a unique and high level,” said Kevin Woodley of InGoal Magazine and NHL.com. “I don’t think that Alex Lyon is far behind Connor Hellebuyck when it comes to reading and anticipating and thinking through the game.”

Luukkonen, 27, was Buffalo’s primary starter over the past two seasons but was coming off a brutal 2024-25 (.887 save percentage, minus-8.6 goals saved above expected). At the start of this season, it looked like more of the same: 4-5-1 record and an .884 save percentage. Since Dec. 9, Luukkonen went 13-3-2 with a .921 save percentage over his next 18 decisions.

“He moves so well for a big man,” Woodley said of the 6-foot-5 goalie. “He was really good two years ago, took a step back last year and his numbers are sort of slightly above where he was two years ago. It’s just sometimes it takes a little time to put all those pieces together.”

Lyon and Luukkonen have both been among the NHL’s best goalies during the Sabres’ ascent to the top of the conference. Clear Sight Analytics has Lyon seventh and Luukkonen eighth in goals saved above expected since Dec. 31. Lyon’s adjusted save percentage is fourth in the NHL, with Luukkonen at No. 12.

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Their success begins with the environment surrounding them.

“They’re not being asked to stop bullets in their teeth most nights, and that’s your starting point,” Woodley said. “But they’re both outperforming that environment by a pretty good margin.”

It’s the environment that gives Woodley pause when thinking about the Sabres’ goaltending in the playoffs, as their lack of playoff experience could be a factor.

“You get into the playoff series and some young guys might start running around out of position trying to do too much,” Woodley said.

Then again, Luukkonen has played in as many playoff games as rookie center Noah Ostlund. Woodley recalled a conversation with Carolina Hurricanes goalie Frederik Andersen years ago in which he acknowledged that goalies can be as susceptible as skaters in “trying to do too much” in the postseason.

“Whether that’s [Luukkonen] going through it for the first time or his teammates in front of him going through it for the first time — and maybe not holding some of this structure that they found or doing things they didn’t do to lead to the success — that’s my only hesitation,” Woodley said.

Will Buffalo stick with rotating starters in goal?

Lyon doesn’t default to small talk. Even the most benign question — “Hey, how’s it going?” — results in an honestly thoughtful reply.

“Ah, I’m good, and a little anxious at the same time,” Lyon said after the Sabres’ morning skate last week.

A follow-up query produced further truth bombs.

“Well, I just think that residing in fear is the fastest way to propel yourself into success,” he said. “When you have a deep fear of failure. No, that’s a good thing. It’s a good time here for us. I could give you like a million cool quotes about this team.”

Lyon is a unicorn in the NHL — an unapologetically free speaker, equally unbothered assessing highs or lows, and unafraid to be his whole self. That latter quality translates to his spot in the Sabres’ goalie rotation, primarily with Luukkonen — and Lyon’s partner can agree he’s a unique personality.

“Alex is a pretty intense dude, in the best way possible,” Luukkonen said. “It’s been fun to see. As a goalie, you don’t always feel the best, but he brings it every night. It doesn’t matter if it’s practice or game, he will be bringing his A-game. Not every goalie can face every game with intensity. Some people are more calm, but I feel like how he looks at the game, how he attacks them, has been impressive to me.”

Luukkonen struggled to get his game in order this season. Leaning on Lyon helped him get there. Luukkonen sat out time early in the season because of a lower-body injury, and was mediocre when he did take the crease. Another lower-body injury in late January forced him out again (and kept him out of the 2026 Winter Olympics). The 27-year-old didn’t find his sweet spot until after that break, when he emerged as a central part of Buffalo’s run up the standings.

“It’s been so up-and-down, up-and-down for me,” Luukkonen said. “And as a team, we kind of figure it out. And at the same time as goalies, we had to work together and help each other. It’s made it easier to improve our game. We have found a good rhythm here with the rotation, and it’s been working out well for us.”

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Goaltenders are the only NHL players who won’t compete for an ironman streak. That doesn’t mean they can all flourish sharing the workload the way Luukkonen and Lyon have, particularly over the past several weeks. It’s not necessarily what either player would choose — to not be a team’s bona fide No. 1 starter — but in Buffalo’s case, Ruff’s philosophy has been to stick with what works.

“I think every goalie wants to play as much as they can,” Luukkonen said. “But in the end, it’s a winning-focused business. It doesn’t matter. It’s all about if you win the games or not. And I think this year, the system has been working out. Alex has been playing great. And I’ve been somewhat happy with my own games too. I feel like as long as we kind of keep the winning going, it’s all good.”

It’s the timeliness of Lyon and Luukkonen that has breathed confidence through the Sabres’ ranks. Luukkonen notes how Buffalo is a “high-flying” group, and while their defense corps has been strong this season, the Sabres can still get burned by giving up too many opportunities. That’s where their goaltending has been a game-changer.

“They are one of the biggest reasons we’re at the spot we are right now,” Tage Thompson said of the goalies. “Honestly, it’s such a huge difference. When they’re back there, they make huge saves when we need them. That just gives us life on the bench. We’d like to limit some chances against us — and I think we’ve done a better job at that — but sometimes [other teams] are going to get good looks and you need your goalie to bail you out, and they’ve done that.”

Another cog in the Sabres’ goaltending machine is Ellis. The 25-year-old rookie has played in 13 games this season while picking up tips and tricks from Lyon and Luukkonen. It’s a valuable opportunity for him to glean everything he can from their experience.

“I can learn a lot from the two guys here, from watching how they play and seeing what attributes they have that makes them successful, and then test it out for myself,” Ellis said. “I’m always thinking about my game and how I can improve so being able to bounce ideas off them and see them play so well, it’s been a lot of fun. And obviously between the three of us, we’re very close to each other. We want the best for each other, and we all push each other.”

Will those bonds be tested come the postseason if only one player can take the reins? Ruff hasn’t committed to anything — Buffalo isn’t officially in yet, after all — but it’s not common for teams to rotate healthy netminders in the playoffs. Each remaining regular-season game could be viewed as Lyon and Luukkonen auditioning for the role of Game 1 starter.

Who winds up on top of that playbill will be unveiled in due time. Lyon is characteristically introspective about the unknown ahead for Buffalo — uncertainty has defined the 33-year-old’s nine-year career with five different teams. It also has given Lyon enough perspective to know not everything is in his control.

“Emotionally, it’s like anything else,” Lyon said of waiting to see the playoff depth chart. “At this point, I’m so trained to just not live and die with the circumstances. For sure, you’re always trying to play the best you can and get as much opportunity as you can. But that being said, the reason I’m here is also, I’m willing to be in a three-goalie rotation, and that’s part of my livelihood. It has been my livelihood in the NHL. That mentality is engrained in me as well.

“And I’ll happily say it: I hope [Luukkonen] starts 16 playoff games in a row. I hope he wins all 16, and I hope we win the Stanley Cup. Then me not playing would be a great problem to have.”

Are the playoff novice Sabres ready for prime time?

There are fewer than a dozen players on the Sabres roster with playoff experience. There are only three who have lifted the Stanley Cup: defenseman Bowen Byram with the Avalanche, winger Tanner Pearson with the Los Angeles Kings and defenseman Luke Schenn with the Lightning, twice.

Pearson has played the most postseason games among the Sabres, with 59 appearances. That’s 59 more than Thompson, Dahlin, Owen Power, Jack Quinn, Josh Doan, Josh Norris and Luukkonen.

Of course, pressure situations exist outside of the NHL. The gold medal that Thompson brought home for the U.S. from Italy is evidence of that. But the Sabres have thrived thanks to a supporting cast filled with young players who have not yet felt the pressure cooker of the postseason such as Doan (age 23), Power (22), Quinn (23) and Zach Benson (20).

“Their young players aren’t getting enough of the credit,” Kryshak said. “Yes, Thompson, [Alex] Tuch and Dahlin have been incredible. But the Sabres, flat out, are not where they are without the contributions of Josh Doan, Jack Quinn and Zach Benson.”

Ruff has rewarded his rising stars with increased responsibilities, including moving Quinn onto the team’s top power-play unit. There are a luxury of options for Ruff that wouldn’t exist if those role players weren’t ready to shoulder growing expectations.

“I think sometimes you need different looks,” Ruff said of promoting Quinn. “I think if you can move pieces around … and get the quality chances you need, then we can move a piece here or there. It’s something we’re going to [keep] looking at.”

Is this the 2019 St. Louis Blues all over again?

We’ve seen teams find a better version of themselves during the regular season.

The most recent and famous example was in 2018-19, when the St. Louis Blues went from last place in the NHL to a Stanley Cup championship in the span of roughly five months. They had a .722 points percentage in the last 45 games of the regular season. Before that, St. Louis had a .459 points percentage in 37 games.

Both those Blues and these Sabres made significant organizational changes to spark their in-season transformations: Buffalo’s was in the front office with their Adams-Kekalainen swap; the Blues did it by replacing coach Mike Yeo with Craig Berube. But Blues star Robert Thomas told ESPN that for those Blues, success ultimately boiled down to the players.

“Confidence is such a huge thing. There’s a mindset where you feel like you’re unstoppable, and our team felt like we were unstoppable that year,” he recalled. “It didn’t matter if we were down two goals in the third period — we just found a way to come back. That’s just the way it felt.”

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Not even hockey’s sharpest minds have a metric for intangibles, those elements that can’t be touched or seen or written on a stat sheet. They are, in essence, the spirit of a club.

“Outside of the numbers, this feels like a team who is really in it for each other. That kind of camaraderie, paired with earned confidence and some luck, is a recipe for success,” Kryshak said.

Kelly says he sees the same thing, and points to the construction of the team as a key reason.

“This is anecdotal, but I don’t think you can underestimate the importance of every player on a team believing they have an important role to play,” he said. “This Sabres team has bought in up and down the lineup and doesn’t seem to have many, if any, weak links.”

He points to the way Norris has been deployed as a third-line center and the addition of a player such as Sam Carrick to their bottom six.

“Since Buffalo turned its season around, there isn’t a regular forward on the team who plays more than 20 minutes per night or less than 10,” he said. “They get contributions from just about everywhere and have players slotted into roles where they have a chance to succeed.”

Can the Sabres win the Stanley Cup?

In January, Tuch delivered a thesis statement for the Sabres.

“Everybody’s coming in trying to prove themselves, and we’re trying to prove as a team that we’re legit,” he said. “We’re not just going to go for the playoffs. We’re going to go for the Cup and that’s our goal: get better each and every day. That’s it. That’s the end goal. We’re not in here just to squeak in.”

It was bold, and it was inspiring. Some felt it was delusional.

But as the wins continued to pile up for the Sabres, Tuch’s words seemed potentially prophetic. And the fact that it was Tuch — who grew up only 2½ hours down I-90 in Syracuse — making that declaration offers emotional heft to a fan base that has been waiting for the Sabres to get their act together.

It doesn’t matter how long a player has been in Buffalo, either. The passion is palpable.

“As much as you want to say, you don’t wear that [expectation] and players don’t wear that, it’s impossible not to to some degree,” Lyon said. “And so I think we try to take a lot of pride in just representing the crest well and that’s been fun and the city has been great.”

Is it all too good to be true? Or could Buffalo win the Stanley Cup for the first time in franchise history?

“Aside from being the luckiest team in terms of outperforming expected goals in the Betalytics model, I think there is some real magic in Buffalo,” Kryshak said. “They are getting incredible goaltending, truly otherworldly stuff when compared to the chances they give up.”

Said McCurdy: “Both of their main goaltenders are overperforming their career results, so that would make me a little worried, but the results this season themselves aren’t so silly as to be really unsettling. I don’t see any other red flags; in fact, if anything I think they haven’t gotten quite as much reward in standings points for their goaltending as the saves themselves would suggest.”

Added Fraser: “Getting into the playoffs is huge — especially for them — and getting a high seed to guarantee at least some home ice and potentially a soft-ish matchup against a team like the Canadiens, Bruins or Red Wings is beneficial as well. I think they could beat any one of those teams. But we’ve still got them at a 5% Cup chance, which is seventh overall. They’ve looked good against contenders lately, but there’s plenty of room for skepticism that they belong in the conversation with them in a seven-game playoff series.”

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