With a diplomatic solution to the Iran conflict looking unlikely, and Americans feeling the cost of the war at the gas pump, Donald Trump is contemplating a stronger military approach to bring it to an end.
Iran, which denied any peace talks had taken place earlier this week, on Sunday accused the US of secretly preparing a ground operation even as it discussed negotiations.
While ministers from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Egypt were getting ready for talks in Islamabad to try to end the fighting, the warship USS Tripoli was arriving in the region, leading a unit of about 3,500 sailors and marines, along with transport and strike fighter aircraft.
Experts told The i Paper that Trump cannot end the war now, with vital oil route the Strait of Hormuz closed, but that a ground war would escalate the conflict, with potentially “catastrophic” consequences for the global economy.
The Pentagon is planning for weeks of ground operations in Iran, according to the Washington Post, with Special Operations teams and infantry troops to be deployed on land, and proposed raids on specific military targets that stop short of a full-on invasion.
Other US outlets have reported the administration is considering sending 10,000 more troops to the region in a land assault that could stretch to months.
The White House told the Post the Pentagon works to give the president “maximum optionality”, but that this “does not mean the President has made a decision”.
U.S. Sailors and Marines aboard USS Tripoli (LHA 7) arrived in the U.S. Central Command area of responsibility, March 27. The America-class amphibious assault ship serves as the flagship for the Tripoli Amphibious Ready Group / 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit composed of about… pic.twitter.com/JFWiPBbkd2
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 28, 2026An unacceptable outcome
Earlier this week, it looked as though Trump was preparing to bring the war to a close, telling reporters that peace talks were ‘”going very well”.
But Iran on Wednesday cast doubt on this, with a spokesperson for Iran’s armed forces accusing the US of “negotiating with yourself”.
According to a social media post by US Central Command, the warship USS Tripoli arrived in the Gulf on Friday, carrying 3,500 marines and sailors, along with fighter aircraft and “amphibious assault and tactical assets”.
Dr Jack Clayton, a US foreign policy analyst from the School of Oriental and African Studies (Soas), explained that Iran’s blocking of the Strait of Hormuz and the impact on global shipping means there is pressure on Trump to defeat Iran, at least in this area, before he can declare the war a success.
“It would not be an acceptable outcome for Donald Trump politically to end the war with the Strait closed, from the domestic side or for America’s credibility in the geopolitical sphere,” he said.
A U.S. Air Force F-22 Raptor takes off from a base in the Middle East during Operation Epic Fury. The Raptor is unmatched by any known or projected fighter aircraft. pic.twitter.com/aZd59BlP3h
— U.S. Central Command (@CENTCOM) March 29, 2026‘Hit and run’ or degrading Iran’s forces
The Pentagon has floated plans to seize Kharg Island, where 90 per cent of Iranian oil is exported, as well as targeted raids to destroy weapons Iran is using to interrupt shipping.
“We do not really know the type of the ground operations there would be, whether they will be basically ‘hit and run’, attacking certain positions in Kharg Island and in the Strait of Hormuz, or trying to degrade Iranian naval and ground forces,” Professor Fawaz Gerges, professor of international relations at the London School of Economics and Political Science, told The i Paper.
Any US escalation will see a retaliation in kind by Iran, he added. “Iran basically has the ground forces to really bog down the American forces and turn this into a war of attrition and that is exactly what it has been trying to do. If Trump orders ground operations he will be doubling down and he will be falling into Iran’s trap.”
Trump is sending thousands of troops to the Middle East ahead of a possible ground operation. Pictured, US soldiers training in South Korea earlier this month (Photo: Jung Yeon-je / AFP via Getty Images)‘Worst-case scenario’
While Iran favours a long war as it has the military reserves to support it, a dragged-out conflict would be “catastrophic” for the global economy, as well as costing lives, said Gerges.
“The reality is any ground operation by the United States will dramatically and radically escalate the war,” he explained. “A war of attrition would be the worst-case scenario for the US and its allies: the Gulf states, Lebanon, and Israel.”
Gerges warned that the economic consequences of the war could lead to political instability in countries like Egypt, Syria and Jordan. Inflation is already causing prices to soar and Egypt has started rationing electricity as energy supply runs low.
Israel spent a reported $320m (£240m) per day in the first 20 days of the war, a cost it will not be able to keep up if it becomes embroiled in a prolonged land war.
Risks to the UK
Clayton said the US launching a ground offensive “poses some risks” to the UK, even if it doesn’t join military action.
“It’s likely that the Iranians thought from the start anyway that the UK was part of a wider US operation. We’ve seen them attack UK bases since the war began,” he said.
“[Keir] Starmer is going to have to set out clear lines about what is being done as defensive action and what possible change in circumstances could lead to offensive action.”
The Prime Minister said on Thursday that he is not going to change his mind on joining the war, despite “a lot [being] said and done'” to put pressure on him to do so. But the government has already softened its position once, allowing the US to use regional bases like Diego Garcia for defensive strikes despite asserting days before that they would not be used for this.
If the ground offensive goes ahead, it’s likely that the pressure will only increase in the coming weeks, and his position may have to shift again.
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