NC’s latest revenue forecast shows growth, prompting GOP cheer but Democratic calls for caution ...Middle East

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NC’s latest revenue forecast shows growth, prompting GOP cheer but Democratic calls for caution

North Carolina Legislative Building (Photo: Galen Bacharier/NC Newsline)

North Carolina’s nonpartisan consensus economic forecast, released Tuesday, projected hundred of millions of dollars more in revenue than anticipated. But state leaders were far from consensus on how to view the change, with Republican legislative leaders voicing optimism and Democratic Gov. Josh Stein warning that the state’s financial future is still in doubt.

    The report, a collaboration between the legislature’s Fiscal Research Division and the Office of State Budget and Management, which is overseen by the governor, reflected a $370 million increase in expected revenue for the current fiscal year, a bump of 1%. The 2026-27 fiscal year forecast increased by $951 million, or 2.8%, following higher-than-expected economic growth estimates.

    The report noted that the financial outlook may still change, pointing to the potential of the U.S. war with Iran to slow economic growth and raise prices, and the chance for an “April Surprise” of lower-than-expected income tax payments.

    The adjusted outlook still predicts a decrease in revenue from the current fiscal year to the upcoming one, from $35.07 billion in 2025-26 to $34.72 billion in 2026-27, a point that the governor’s office cited as reason to pause pending tax cuts passed by the legislature years ago.

    “It is time to fund Medicaid,” Gov. Josh Stein said in a news conference Thursday, Nov. 6, 2025 in Raleigh. “Because if [lawmakers] fail to do so, people are suffering. And it is unacceptable.” (Photo: Galen Bacharier/NC Newsline)Those cuts are set to take effect when the state hits certain levels of revenue. According to the report, the state is expected to hit two triggers for personal income tax rate reductions this biennium, dropping the rate to 2.99% by tax year 2028, which Stein warned would cause a deficit.

    “Today’s forecast means that we will soon fall into a budget gap of at least $2.8 billion, causing the state to have to make painful cuts to critical services like public safety, education, and health care,” Stein said in a statement. “As our population rapidly grows and the federal government becomes a less reliable partner, I urge this General Assembly to study these new realities, hit pause on outdated, irresponsible tax triggers, and invest in our most important resource: our people.”

    Both Stein and House Speaker Destin Hall (R-Caldwell) identified the automatic tax cuts as a concern, urging budget restraint in response.

    “Today’s announcement of a surplus demonstrates the success of the fiscally responsible policies enacted by our Republican majority over the last fifteen years,” Hall said. “We must protect North Carolina’s hard-earned reputation for fiscal strength by passing a responsible budget sooner rather than later.”

    North Carolina has gone more than two years without a full budget, in part because of policy differences between Senate and House Republicans over whether to pause the automatic tax cuts, a move that both Stein and House leadership support but which the state Senate has resisted.

    North Carolina House Speaker Destin Hall (R-Caldwell) speaks to reporters on Oct. 21, 2025. (Photo: Galen Bacharier/NC Newsline)

    Hall’s statement called for continuing “gradual, thoughtful tax cuts” and cutting down on Medicaid spending, which he said has “entirely consumed” any gains from the revenue surplus. “This program must be reformed in order to preserve our ability to fund public safety, education, and other priorities,” Hall said.

    Senate President Pro Tem Phil Berger (R-Rockingham), who on Tuesday afternoon conceded his primary to opponent Rockingham Sheriff Sam Page, did not express any need for caution in his statement on the forecast.

    “Today’s forecast once again confirms that Republican-led, pro-growth fiscal policies have transformed North Carolina into an economic juggernaut,” Berger said. “As we prepare for the legislative session, this forecast provides a roadmap to continue those efforts and ease the tax burden for hardworking North Carolinians.”

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