We’ve simulated the NCAA men’s basketball tournament thousands of times to find the chances of teams advancing in March Madness. Here’s where we stand prior to the Sweet 16.
The first weekend of the 2026 NCAA Tournament delivered some moments that help define it as March Madness.
High Point won as a 12-seed and Siena put a scare into Duke in the first round, and St. John’s knocked out Kansas on a buzzer beater and No. 9 Iowa sent No. 1 Florida home in the second round.
But those moments never fully turned into chaos.
The bracket is still largely intact, including No. 1 seeds Duke, Arizona and Michigan alive, and the Sweet 16 is once again dominated by power conference teams. Outside No. 9 Iowa and No. 11 Texas, there are few true surprises left in the field.
It leads to a second weekend that feels very top-heavy.
This Weekend’s Schedule
South and West Regions: Sweet 16, Thursday night; Elite Eight, Saturday East and Midwest Regions: Sweet 16, Friday night; Elite Eight, SundayInstead of a wide-open bracket, the focus shifts to a group of contenders that have looked the part all season. Beyond Duke, Arizona and Michigan, teams like Houston, Purdue, Iowa State, Illinois and UConn appear capable of winning it all.
That does not mean the outcomes are predictable.
At this point in the tournament, the gap between teams is quite small, so playing well and executing on both ends of the court are must-haves. Underdogs need an edge, whether that’s controlling pace, creating difficult shots on defense or relying on a player who can take over late.
To separate teams for Sweet 16 predictions, we’ve simulated March Madness thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster), a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
Here’s what we learned.
East Region
After the shaky start against Siena, Duke settled in and handled business against TCU in the second round. The Blue Devils remain the favorite to come out of the East, backed by the second-best TRACR rating in the country and the dominant presence of freshman forward Cam Boozer, who’s No. 1 in the nation in both DRIP and WAR.
But Duke’s path quickly gets more difficult. St. John’s presents the first real test, with Hall of Fame coach Rick Pitino leading a tough, experienced group. Senior forward Zuby Ejiofor ranks ninth nationally in DRIP, while Bryce Hopkins brings scoring firepower after knocking down six 3-pointers against Kansas.
Even beyond that Sweet 16 matchup, the East has March Madness staples. UConn combines elite veterans such as Alex Karaban with championship-level coaching from Dan Hurley, helping power a team ranked 12th in TRACR. The Huskies – the 2023 and ’24 national champs – take on Michigan State, which is 10th in TRACR under Tom Izzo as it continues a 28th straight appearance in the NCAA Tournament. Sophomore guard Jeremy Fears is ranked 10th in WAR and comes off a double-double in the Spartans’ win over Louisville.
Duke may be the favorite, but there is little margin for error in this region.
Sweet 16 Win Probability
No. 1 Duke (66.5%) vs. No. 5 St. John’s (33.5%)
No. 2 UConn (49.2%) vs. No. 3 Michigan State (50.8%)
Final Four Probability
Duke (43.7%), UConn (20.4%), Michigan State (20.1%), St. John’s (15.8%)
Midwest Region
After rolling in their first two NCAA Tournament games, Michigan remains the favorite to come out of the Midwest, and it holds the highest TRACR rating in the country. Yaxel Lendeborg scored 25 points in the Wolverines’ win over Saint Louis in the round of 32 and sits second nationally in WAR and third in DRIP.
Still, TRACR ranks No. 2 seed Iowa State as the fourth best-team in the country, and a close second defensively behind Houston. Alabama and Tennessee both have over a 13% chance of making it to the Final Four as well, according to the Opta supercomputer.
Tennessee’s Ja’Kobi Gillepsie ranks fourth in DRIP and sixth in WAR. Alabama is fourth overall in offensive TRACR, led by Labaron Philon Jr., who’s sixth in individual O-DRIP.
Sweet 16 Win Probability
No. 1 Michigan (69.1%) vs. No. 4 Alabama (30.9%)
No. 2 Iowa State (64.0%) vs. No. 6 Tennessee (36.0%)
Final Four Probability
Michigan (41.8%), Iowa State (31.5%), Alabama (13.6%), Tennessee (13.2%)
West Region
Arizona, ranked third in TRACR, was sharp while moving through the first weekend with little drama, averaging 85.0 points and posting a tourney-high 53 rebounds per game. The West Region favorite is led by freshman guard Brayden Burries (10th in DRIP), but the Wildcats feature one of the field’s more balanced rosters, with seven players averaging at least 8.8 points per game.
The path forward will not be easy, however. Purdue has looked just as strong through the first two rounds. Senior guard Braden Smith, who ranks fifth nationally in WAR and recently set the NCAA record for career assists, helps power a team that’s ranked eighth in TRACR.
Arkansas, led by coach John Calipari, presents another tough matchup, with freshman guard Darius Acuff Jr. emerging as an elite scorer. He ranks 11th in WAR and is coming off a 36-point performance against High Point.
Additionally. Texas remains one of the last true dark horses in the field, having started as an 11-seed in the First Four against NC State, then knocking off BYU and Gonzaga (the three wins are by a combined 16 points). Senior guard Daily Swain and sophomore center Matas Vokietaitis have helped the Longhorns show they are more than capable of extending their run.
Sweet 16 Win Probability
No. 1 Arizona (68.4%) vs. No. 4 Arkansas (31.6%)
No. 2 Purdue (69.2%) vs. No. 11 Texas (30.8%)
Final Four Probability
Arizona (43.4%), Purdue (34.8%), Arkansas (13.7%), Texas (8.1%)
South Region
The South Region is the tightest of the bunch, as no team has more than a 52.6% chance of making the Elite 8. But the winner of the Sweet 16 matchup between Houston (fifth in TRACR; Emanuel Sharp and Kingston Flemings both top-30 in DRIP) and Illinois (sixth TRACR; Keaton Wagler eighth in WAR) combine for a 63.9% chance of advancing out of the region and to the Final Four.
That doesn’t mean Nebraska and Iowa lack a chance of advancing to Indianapolis. Iowa’s Bennett Stirtz has been one of the best players in the country all season and ranks fourth in WAR. Nebraska is sixth-best in defensive TRACR, with Sam Hoiberg ranking third in defensive VAPR and ninth in defensive DRIP.
Sweet 16 Win Probability
No. 2 Houston (50.9%) vs. No. 3 Illinois (49.1%)
No. 4 Nebraska (52.6%) vs. No. 9 Iowa (47.4%)
Final Four Probability
Houston (32.3%), Illinois (31.6%), Nebraska (20.0%), Iowa (16.1%)
Two Questions
Which Region Has Strongest Remaining Teams?
With Michigan and Iowa State first and fourth, respectively, in TRACR, the Midwest has the highest-average TRACR of the four regions. The West ranks the lowest, mostly weighed down by Texas being ranked 31st.
Average TRACR
Midwest Region: 37.3 East Region: 35.8 South Region: 35.0 West Region: 33.7What Are the Championship Percentages?
Duke entered the NCAA Tournament as the favorite, but after the near loss to Siena in the first round, and an impressive showing from Michigan in the first two rounds, the Wolverines have become the current top team in TRACR and overall favorite.
National Championship Probability
Michigan (33-3): 15.6% Duke (34-2): 14.8% Arizona (34-2): 13.7% Houston (30-6): 9.2% Iowa State (29.7): 9.1% Illinois (26.8): 8.7% Purdue (29-8): 7.9% UConn (31.5): 3.6% Michigan State (27-7): 3.5% Nebraska (28-6): 3.1% St. John’s (30-6): 2.8% Alabama (25-9): 2.3% Iowa (23-12): 1.9% Tennessee (24-11): 1.8% Arkansas (28-8): 1.4% Texas (21-14): 0.6%Enjoy the Sweet 16 predictions? For more coverage, follow on social media at Instagram, Bluesky, Facebook and X.
Sweet 16 Predictions: As Power Conferences Flex Muscle, the Gap is Small for Contenders Opta Analyst.
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