Having been dumped out of Europe, we look ahead to Chelsea’s crucial Premier League game on Saturday evening with our Everton vs Chelsea prediction and preview.
Everton vs Chelsea: The Key Stats
Hosts Everton have lost just one of their last eight Premier League home games against Chelsea (W5 D2), last going down 1-0 back in August 2022. Nonetheless, Chelsea have kept 12 clean sheets across the last 19 league meetings, including each of the last four. The Opta supercomputer found this one tough to call. Chelsea won 37.1% of its 10,000 simulations compared to 36.6% for the Toffees.After suffering another three-goal defeat to European champions Paris Saint-Germain in midweek, Chelsea‘s 2025-26 campaign seems in danger of falling apart.
Well beaten in both legs, the Blues sustained their joint-heaviest defeat in a two-legged UEFA Champions League tie as they were swept aside by PSG at Stamford Bridge, ultimately losing their last-16 clash 8-2 on aggregate.
Remarkably, Liam Rosenior’s side were still level after 73 minutes of last week’s first leg, but they trailed by five goals overall when PSG struck for a second time on Tuesday.
Still, with their pursuit of a place in next term’s competition and the FA Cup still left to play for, they can’t afford to spend too long reflecting on that result.
Sitting sixth in the Premier League after losing 1-0 at home to Newcastle last time out, Chelsea have lost two of their last three top-flight matches, as many defeats as in their previous 13, and they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet in any of the last eight.
While fifth place should secure Champions League football, inconsistent Liverpool lie one point above them, with ailing Aston Villa just two further ahead, setting up an eight-game dash to the finish line.
So, after their 2-0 home win in December, Chelsea will be desperate to do a league double over Everton for the first time since 2017, strengthening their hand in the race for Europe and deflecting some of the scrutiny being faced by top-flight rookie Rosenior.
At the other end of the experience scale, Everton boss David Moyes has taken charge of 746 Premier League matches – a tally only bettered by Arsène Wenger (828) and Alex Ferguson (810) – and he’ll look to make that nous pay this weekend.
Last time out, his team narrowly lost to Arsenal, having held firm for almost 90 minutes before being thwarted by two late goals. Of course, that game will primarily be remembered for Max Dowman becoming the youngest scorer in Premier League history at 16 years and 73 days old.
From Everton’s perspective, defeat dealt a blow to their European aspirations, after back-to-back wins over Newcastle United and Burnley had raised hopes of a return to continental competition.
Even so, there’s a strong chance the FA Cup winner will come from within the Premier League’s top seven, so a top-eight finish may prove enough to at least qualify for the Conference League.
Everton have already won 43 points from 30 games – the Merseyside club’s best tally at this stage since 2021 – while just two more wins will see them beat their final total (48) from the 2024-25 campaign.
Yet, on Saturday, they must try again to post consecutive Premier League victories at the Hill Dickinson Stadium for the very first time. This is the latest into a league campaign they’ve not won successive home games since April 2015.
Success would also close the deficit to Chelsea to two points, but Everton have failed to even score in a dozen of the clubs’ last 19 top-flight meetings – including all of the most recent four.
Set to face his former club, Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall is enjoying his best top-tier season; he leads Everton for Premier League goal involvements (nine), and sits third in terms of both chances created (27) and expected assists (4.1).
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2 days ago Matt FurnissDespite his hat-trick at Wolves and another goal against Aston Villa, Cole Palmer remains something of an enigma, with João Pedro arguably proving Chelsea’s most consistent threat – particularly on the road.
Across all competitions, the Brazilian has been directly involved in eight goals in his last eight away appearances (seven goals, one assist); his tally of 11 for the season is already the most by any Chelsea player away from home in a single campaign since 2019-20 (Tammy Abraham, 12).
Elsewhere, Rosenior could recall defensive duo Malo Gusto and Benoît Badiashile – both of whom missed out against PSG due to illness – but captain Reece James has just been joined by Trevoh Chalobah on the visitors’ injury list.
Everton vs Chelsea Head-to-Head
Following their 2-0 win in December’s reverse fixture – when Palmer and Gusto both found the target – Chelsea are looking to do a Premier League double over Everton for the first time in nine years.
Across the last four league meetings, Chelsea have won three times and drawn once, racking up nine goals without reply.
However, Everton have won five and lost just one of their last eight top-flight home games against Chelsea.
Everton vs Chelsea Prediction
The Opta supercomputer struggled to split these two teams, giving Chelsea a slightly greater chance of victory. The visitors won 37.1% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Everton came out on top in fewer of Opta’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, but only just, their hopes of success rated at 36.6%.
That leaves a 26.3% chance of the points being shared, a result that would probably frustrate both sides.
Everton vs Chelsea Predicted Lineups
Everton: Jordan Pickford, Vitalii Mykolenko, Michael Keane, Jake O’Brien, James Garner, Idrissa Gueye, Tim Iroegbunam, Iliman Ndiaye, Kiernan Dewsbury‑Hall, Dwight McNeil, Beto.
Head coach: David Moyes
Chelsea: Robert Sánchez, Marc Cucurella, Tosin Adarabioyo, Wesley Fofana, Josh Acheampong, Moisés Caicedo, Andrey Santos, Alejandro Garnacho, Enzo Fernández, Cole Palmer, João Pedro.
Head coach: Liam Rosenior
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Everton vs Chelsea Prediction: Can Rosenior’s Side Bounce Back From PSG Humbling? Opta Analyst.
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