Yesterday, the Orioles announced they optioned left-hander Cade Povich to Triple-A Norfolk. That news was hardly a surprise, as Povich is perhaps the seventh or eighth starter on the team’s depth chart. Kyle Bradish and Trevor Rogers form a solid top two, while offseason additions Shane Baz, Chris Bassitt, and Zach Eflin fill the group out on paper.
That would leave Tyler Wells and Dean Kremer on the outside looking in. That’s at least true of Wells, who was officially informed he’d start the season in the bullpen two weeks ago. There remains a certain level of ambiguity regarding Kremer’s role, however. That’s a fairly new feeling for the right-hander, who has started 123 of his 126 games in the majors and been a full-time player in the majors since June 2022. In those four years, he’s been a solid but unspectacular back-end rotation piece with a 3.95 ERA and 4.17 FIP across 599 1/3 innings. He’s struck out 20.3% of his opponents while walking 7.4%, both numbers that hover right around league average.
Being a league average starting pitcher is hardly a bad thing. Volume has value, and Kremer’s 171 2/3 innings last year made him one of just 47 qualified starters in MLB. On the other hand, it’s not too difficult to improve on what he offers. Just 11 of those 47 pitchers had a worse season by ERA- than Kremer. Even by lowering the innings threshold to 100, Kremer clocks in ahead of just 40 of 119 starters on the list.
So, how is Kremer best used for Baltimore this year? The right-hander does have an option remaining, so the club could simply send him to the minors and have him at the ready in case one of their starting five gets injured. That could be preferable to moving Kremer to the bullpen. Having both Wells and Kremer in relief roles would leave the Orioles with their depth hollowed out to an extent. While there are certainly pitchers capable of sliding between the bullpen and rotation on a moment’s notice, it can take time for even players experienced in that sort of swing role to stretch out fully after moving from the bullpen.
The O’s could also give Kremer a spot in a six-man rotation. While the team’s bullpen has more than a dozen viable options, the only pitchers truly locked into spots appear to be Wells, Ryan Helsley, Keegan Akin, Dietrich Enns and Yennier Cano. They’ll eventually reinstall Andrew Kittredge into the late-inning mix, but he’ll start the season on the injured list after battling shoulder inflammation early in camp.
That’s the sort of depth that could support a six-man rotation, especially with Wells available to cover multiple innings. That could be an attractive option given that the rest of the rotation has plenty of reason to need extra rest. Bradish is coming off UCL surgery. Bassitt is entering his age-37 season. Rogers has never made more than 25 starts, and Eflin just suffered through an injury-marred season that ended in back surgery. A six-man rotation would offer each of those players some additional rest days and make it much easier to keep that group fresh for what the Orioles are surely hoping will be a deep run into October.
That aforementioned offseason surgery for Eflin could, at least in theory, offer a third option. Kremer could begin the season as the Orioles’ fifth starter while Eflin opens the season on the injured list, giving him more time to build up and kicking the decision down the road for a few weeks. Eflin was targeting an Opening Day return to action as far back as December, but even at the time acknowledged that it was far from a sure thing.
Fast forward to today, and he’s so far made just two appearances in Spring Training, the latest of which was abbreviated by a rainout. While he impressed in both outings, neither lasted more than two innings. It’s unclear, at this point, if Baltimore will be able to get Eflin fully stretched out for the start of the season or if they would be willing to dedicate a spot in a five-man rotation to him if he isn’t built up to anything close to the 90-100 pitches typically expected of an MLB starter.
How do MLBTR readers think the Orioles will settle their Opening Day rotation? Will they send Kremer to the minors, place Eflin on the injured list, or use both in a six-man rotation? Have your say in the poll below:
What will the Orioles rotation look like on Opening Day?
Dean Kremer will begin the season in the minor leagues or the bullpen. Zach Eflin will begin the season on the injured list. The Orioles will fit both Eflin and Kremer into a six-man rotation. Vote Vote to see results Zach Eflin will begin the season on the injured list. 53% (50) The Orioles will fit both Eflin and Kremer into a six-man rotation. 36% (34) Dean Kremer will begin the season in the minor leagues or the bullpen. 11% (10)Total votes: 94
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