College basketball expert Ryan Fagan breaks down his 2026 NCAA Tournament bracket with input from our TRACR model. He reveals his picks and teams lurking for one shining moment.
What a great time of the year: Baseball’s on its annual collision course with opening day and the NCAA Basketball Tournament is waiting to show sports fans everywhere its cupboard of surprises.
It’s OK if you’ve missed most of the college hoops season (it’s been a busy year), but we’re here to help you fill out your annual March Madness bracket.
Opta Analyst’s TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster) rankings have a pretty solid track record of showing which teams are underseeded and which teams are overseeded, which is helpful info when trying to choose your upsets.
Here’s our region-by-region breakdown of this year’s field, with TRACR insights and helpful suggestions of which teams might help you win this new approach to filling out your NCAA Tournament bracket.
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Upset Special: No. 7 UCLA over No. 2 UConn. Sure, this isn’t a first-round upset, but a 2-seed failing to make it out of the opening weekend is absolutely an upset. Those UCLA Bruins are 26th overall in the TRACR ratings and played great basketball down the stretch of the regular season, beating then-nationally ranked top-10 teams Nebraska and Michigan State before injuries led to a Big Ten Tournament downfall. But with Tyler Bilodeau and Donovan Dent expected back at full strength, this is a nightmarish matchup for coach Dan Hurley’s UConn squad that got smoked by St. John’s in the Big East Tournament title game.
Dark Horse: Take your pick, the region is stacked with them. The aforementioned UCLA team could be a handful, the No. 4 seed (Kansas) has the potential No. 1 overall pick in the NBA Draft (Darryn Peterson), the No. 5 seed (St. John’s) just won the Big East Tournament, the No. 9 seed (TCU) has wins over Florida and Iowa State and almost knocked off Michigan early in the season. Top 10 TRACR ratings always catch our eye, so we’ll note St. John’s is No. 8 in the defensive ratings this season.
Favorite Potential Matchup: No. 1 Duke vs. No. 4 Kansas, Sweet 16. Cam Boozer vs. Darryn Peterson, on that stage? Cancel every single appointment for a six-hour window of time – to prepare and plan for potential overtimes. Peterson has missed his fair share of big regular-season games, as everyone knows, but show up big in this one and none of that matters.
The Pick: No. 1 Duke. Yeah, the region is loaded with talent and high-upside/high-risk teams. But take a look at the TRACR standings and you’ll find the Blue Devils in the No. 3 spot in offense and the No. 1 spot in defense. That’s the consistent excellence that wins in March (and early April).
South Region
Upset Special: No. 11 VCU over No. 6 North Carolina. The Heels have been a bit erratic with star freshman Caleb Wilson sidelined by injury, and VCU has been incredible down the stretch, with 16 wins in their last 17 games plus the Atlantic 10 Tournament title.
Dark Horse: Defense wins championships, so it’s hard to confidently pick No. 3 seed Illinois to make a long run, but any team that can catch fire from the outside like those guys is a terrifying team to play in the NCAA Tournament. The Illini – No. 2 in offensive TRACR – feature five shooters with at least 43 made 3-point attempts, and three more with at least 18.
Favorite Potential Matchup: No. 5 Vanderbilt vs. No. 1 Florida, Sweet 16. The Commodores bounced the Gators from the SEC Tournament with extreme prejudice, winning by 17 points. Would be fun to see that rematch (though maybe not so much for UF fans).
The Pick: No. 2 Houston. The Cougars are just so very good – sixth in overall TRACR – and they’re playing the second weekend in Houston? Yes, please.
West Region
Upset Special: No. 12 High Point vs. No. 5 Wisconsin. Gotta pick at least one 12-over-5, right? High Point is 30-4, has lost only once since mid-December and is averaging 90.0 points per game. Yup, nine-zero. The Panthers don’t necessarily have the ingredients for a long run, but they can score with anyone in the country.
Dark Horse: We’ll get to Arkansas in a moment, but for now, let’s go with No. 6 seed BYU. Yeah, the Cougars have underperformed in the W/L column but even now it’s hard to shake the memories of the 2003 NCAA Tournament, when we saw what a high-impact NBA prospect (Carmelo Anthony, for Syracuse) can do to give March its madness. A.J. Dybantsa is averaging 25.3 points per game, and even though the Cougars have lost a lot of matchups with top teams, they’ve been right in the game for most of them. Lessons learned, tweaks made?
Favorite Potential Matchup: No. 1 Arizona vs. No. 4 Arkansas, Sweet 16. This absolutely could be one of the best games of the entire bracket. Arkansas has the talent – led, of course, by point guard/superstar Darius Acuff Jr. – to line up with just about everybody, and coach John Calipari has his team playing its best basketball heading down the stretch. And Arizona is legit.
The Pick: No. 1 Arizona. Like I said, legit.
Midwest Region
Upset Special: No. 11 Miami (Ohio) over No. 6 Tennessee. At some point, winning matters, right? The RedHawks got that pesky loss out of the way in the MAC Tournament, and they got to spend plenty of time thinking about those 31 wins they had to start the season. Yes, they have to get past a good SMU team in the First Four matchup, but they’ll be highly motivated to prove they are more than a decent team that played a mediocre schedule with a win over Tennessee.
Dark Horse: Texas Tech. It’s not often you have a No. 5 seed with wins over two 1-seeds (Duke and Arizona) and two 2-seeds (Houston and Iowa State). Obviously, the absence of star JT Toppin – with his torn ACL – is a reason the Red Raiders have lost three straight games to drop to its 5-seed, but the NCAA Tournament is a chance for Christian Anderson to show his star on the biggest stage.
Favorite Potential Matchup: No. 1 Michigan vs. No. 2 Iowa State, Elite 8. Sometimes, folks, chalk is fun. Both the Wolverines and Cyclones are top 13 in both offensive and defensive ratings, and this would be all kinds of fun to watch.
The Pick: No. 1 Michigan. Confident in this pick? Not really. The Wolverines looked destined to win it all at times this season, but the offense struggled at times down the stretch and they weren’t exactly burying teams in the final few weeks. Rediscover that killer instinct, though, and they should get to the Final Four.
Ryan Fagan’s Final Four
Most years, the analytics of this Duke team would make the Blue Devils the easy pick to win the title. Also, most years, the analytics of this Michigan team would make the Wolverines the easy pick to win the title. Oh, and most years, the analytics of this Arizona team would make the Wildcats the easy pick to win the title.
And you’re starting to see the dilemma. These three are just powerhouse clubs, but somebody has to lose and somebody has to come out on top.
The pick here is for Arizona to win its second national title. The first one was in 1997, back when the Wildcats were part of the Pac-10.
National Semifinals
No. 1 Arizona over No. 1 MichiganNo. 1 Duke over No. 2 Houston
Championship Game
No. 1 Arizona over No. 1 Duke
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March Madness 2026: Ryan Fagan’s Expert NCAA Tournament Bracket Picks Opta Analyst.
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