One wrong move by Vladimir Putin in Donald Trump‘s Iran war could prompt US retaliation against Russian assets as the American death toll ticks up following reports that Moscow is providing intelligence to Tehran.
Clear and direct involvement by Russia in Iranian strikes against the United States would risk a dangerous escalation that could include hits on Moscow’s assets in the region, experts have said.
John Healey, the UK Defence Secretary, said this week that the “hidden hand” of Russian President Putin was behind the “tactics” and even military capabilities of Iran in its response to attacks by the US and Israel. Iranian attacks on targets across the Middle East “have the hallmarks” of Russian troop operations in their war against Ukraine, he added.
Russia is believed to have passed Iran targeting information to attack US forces in the Middle East, according to the Washington Post. In its report last week, it said Russia had passed Iran the locations of US military assets, including warships and aircraft, citing three officials familiar with the intelligence.
The extent of Russia’s targeting assistance to Iran is not entirely clear. Recent reports have suggested Russia’s support of Iran may have stepped up from general intelligence-sharing to advanced tactical advice regarding the use of drones.
The Trump administration appears to have brushed off Russia’s activity, with Trump admitting Putin “might be helping [Iran] a little bit”.
He added: “It’s not doing much, if you take a look at what’s happened to Iran over the past week,” he said. “[Russia] would say we do it against them, wouldn’t they?”
However, six US troops were killed by an Iranian drone in Kuwait this month and on Thursday, six US more were confirmed to have been killed when a military refuelling plane crashed in western Iraq. US Central Command said the circumstances of that crash were being investigated, but the incident was not due to hostile or friendly fire.
John Healey, the UK Defence Secretary, said this week that the ‘hidden hand’ of Russian President Putin was behind Iran’s tactics (Photo: Leon Neal/Getty Images)‘No choice’ but for Trump to respond if strikes show ‘clear’ Russian involvement
Though none of these incidents have been linked back to Russia, experts say that were clear and indisputable connections to emerge, the calculus for Trump could change.
Trump would have no choice but to retaliate and “demonstrate strength against Russia” in some way if Moscow were found to have directed, for example, strikes on a “clearly American asset” such as US infrastructure, an embassy or an aircraft carrier in an incident that caused significant loss of life, said Dr Melanie Garson, an associate professor in the political science department at University College London.
Pressure would be likely to come from the US President’s domestic base, who would have a “very low tolerance” for loss of personnel, she assessed.
“The other aspect of that from a strategic point of view is that if you don’t [react], what’s going to stop the next one?”
“Is the US going to go bomb and open a front with Russia? Unlikely. Would they hit any kind of Russian strategic asset in the region, maybe even an embassy? Possibly.” She added that the tensions associated with hitting an embassy in an allied country meant that might be unlikely.
She emphasised that the key element” of any prerequisite to an escalation between Russia and the US would have to be “absolutely clear, intentional, guided instruction from Putin”.
“The link would have to be extraordinarily clear for Trump to react,” she said.
Dr Jack Clayton, a US foreign policy analyst, agreed that it was “not out of the question” that the US military would respond “if it turned out Russia had become involved in harming US personnel”.
“I think it would be perfectly possible that some form of Russian assets might get targeted militarily as a sort of retaliatory response,” he said, but added that a more likely response would be attempts at diplomatic dialogue and increased economic measures.
Highlighting “parallels” in the Russia-Iran relationship with how the US has supplied intelligence and aid to Ukraine against Russia, Dr Garson said a “direct slap in the face” on that front may be the likeliest retaliation method by Trump to hold Putin “accountable”, if the situation called for it.
A damaged building in the vicinity of Dubai Creek Harbour after a drone attack by Iran (Photo: Stringer/ Reuters)One wrong move – and other countries could join the war
There remains a risk of an escalating conflict pulling in other countries, from the Middle East and further afield.
There could be miscalculations involving China as well,” said Dr Marina Miron, a researcher in the defence studies department at King’s College London. “There are many actors involved in this overtly – Turkey, Azerbaijan, and so on.
“It’s quite complex, and therefore coming to a definitive conclusion that a specific state actor was at fault will be difficult, which reduces the risk of escalation but doesn’t eliminate it.”
She continued: “What could tip the US over? Maybe providing Iran with tactical nuclear warheads which Iran then uses with a clear trail.
“But the Iranians, the Russians, the Chinese and even the North Koreans are certainly not stupid. None of them really want a nuclear war or escalation despite what many might believe.”
Trump will be reluctant to target Russia
Experts cautioned, however, that the chance of direct military confrontation between Russia and the US sparked by developments in the Iran war was unlikely at present, with no proof linking US soldiers’ deaths to Russia’s actions.
Dr Miron said the death of US servicemembers would not necessarily be “catastrophic” for US-Russia relations because it could be difficult to find sufficiently strong proof to confirm Russia’s role in any such event.
“We should bear in mind that there are closed channels between the two militaries for deconflicting; for instance, when Russian troops were operating in Syria and US troops were there, they used those channels to make sure there was no accidental clash that could lead to an escalation,” she told The i Paper.
“I think both nuclear powers are very, very concerned about miscalculations and that’s why there is a direct channel to Moscow from Washington DC, specifically to ensure no incidents happen.
“It will probably take more than servicemembers being killed – maybe the clear use of Russian missiles that strike a symbolic US target, like sinking an aircraft carrier – for it to spiral out of control,” Dr Miron continued.
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin during a press conference following their meeting for Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Alaska, in August 2025 (Photo: Kevin Lamarque/Reuters)Furthermore, Trump’s oddly admiring relationship with the Russian President meant he was unlikely to retaliate against Russian unless he were forced into it.
Dr Clayton said the “impulsive” Trump’s “peculiar” relationship with Putin and his “general admiration for the ‘strongman’ sort of politics” exhibited by the Russian President made it hard to predict the US President’s next move.
And Russia would be careful not to make itself a target for Trump’s ire. Russia, Dr Miron said, was seeing benefits from not having the US “completely against it”, as evidenced by the recent relaxing of sanctions on its oil and would therefore be “careful to calibrate their operations in such a way so as not to trigger any escalatory behaviour”.
The same applies to Trump. “From Trump’s perspective, he has much more to gain globally and geopolitically from working with – not being an adversary to – Russia. His global plans are quite ambitious, so he cannot overstretch US capabilities,” she said.
“I think that if Trump really wanted to irk Putin, it would be done by giving something to [Ukrainian President Volodomyr] Zelensky – I think that’s where the chess game is being played,” Garson said.
“Or, Trump plays it out on the Ukraine front by providing something Volodymyr Zelensky wants against Russia, as a counterbalance – as if to say, ‘you mess with us, we’ll get more actively involved here’.”
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