Well friends, a few days back I told you I’d be checking in today with an update from the MAC Tournament in Cleveland, Ohio, where I spent 10 glorious hours on Thursday watching college hoops. I expected that I would be writing about the Miami (OH) RedHawks and their quest for an undefeated season heading into the NCAA Tournament. However, the Massachusetts Minutemen had other plans.
After winning 8 games during the regular season that were decided by 4 or fewer points, the RedHawks’ late-game heroics ran out on Thursday afternoon, as the previously unbeaten 1-seed in the MAC was stunned by the Frank Martin-led Minutemen 87-83. This loss puts an unnecessary amount of stress on the RedHawks, every team on the bubble, and maybe most importantly, the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee.
Now look, I’ve been doing Bracketology for a long time, and I’ve been following college basketball even longer. I can sit here and admit that Miami (OH) does not have the prototypical NCAA Tournament résumé. The RedHawks are ranked 93rd in KenPom, behind programs like Marquette (12-20 record), Notre Dame (13-18), Minnesota (15-17), and Arizona State (17-16, and now without a head coach). They’re ranked 64th in NET, and they have exactly 2 Quad 1/Quad 2 wins to brag about. By those metrics alone, Miami’s at-large candidacy looks murky.
However… Miami won its first 31 games of the regular season. And hey, if you want to say that 3 of those wins came against non-Division I opponents, I hear you. But that means this season began with 28 legitimate wins, and if a perfect regular season doesn’t get you into the Big Dance, then why play the regular season at all? Yes, Miami was incredibly fortunate to have gone 8-0 in its first 8 games that were decided by 4 or fewer points this season, and yes, there are some serious holes that will be exploited if it gets a bad tourney matchup.
I don’t care. I really don’t. I’ve got the RedHawks in the field. That won’t change no matter what happens over the next 3 days of hoops. And I hope the NCAA Tournament Selection Committee is aligned with me.
The Bracket
Bracketology Breakdown
No. 1 Seeds: Duke Blue Devils (East Region), Michigan Wolverines (Midwest Region), Arizona Wildcats (West Region), Florida Gators (South Region)
Multi-Bid Leagues: Atlantic 10 (2), ACC (8), Big East (3), Big Ten (9), Big 12 (8), MAC (2), SEC (10), WCC (3)
SEC Seeding: Florida (1), Alabama (3), Arkansas (5), Vanderbilt (5), Tennessee (6), Kentucky (7), Georgia (9), Texas A&M (10), Mizzou (10), Texas (11)
Will a team from the SEC cut down the nets in Indianapolis? Here’s what the Kalshi market says:
Prediction Markets 2026 College Basketball Champion? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Michigan 21% Duke 20% Florida 15% Arizona 14% UConn 6% Houston 6% Illinois 5% Iowa St. 4% Kansas 3% Purdue 3% PredictBubble Watch
Last 4 Byes: Santa Clara, Texas A&M, Missouri, Miami (OH)
Last 4 In: Texas, UCF, VCU, SMU
First 4 Out: New Mexico, San Diego State, Oklahoma, Auburn
Next 4 Out: Indiana, Seton Hall, California, Cincinnati
Bubble Tidbits
The at-large credentials of the Miami (OH) RedHawks have already been covered up above, and as I mentioned, there’s not a chance that I’m leaving the 31-1 regular season champs of the MAC out of the tournament field. I hope that the Selection Committee follows suit, but if they do, that’s bad news for every team on the bubble. Unfortunately for those very same teams, the eventual MAC Tournament champion isn’t the last potential bid thief out there.
Let’s take a look at the potential bid thieves still standing during Championship Week:
Atlantic 10 — By my count, we’ve got 6 teams in the A-10 that could steal an at-large bid, and that doesn’t even include the Saint Louis Billikens, safely in the field despite a 3-week swoon, or the VCU Rams, which I have right near the cut line. But if George Washington, Dayton, St. Bonaventure, Duquesne, Saint Joseph’s or Davidson cut down the nets in Pittsburgh, then it’s a certainty that the A-10 will be at 2, or potentially even 3-bid league.
Big East — The Big East includes 3 tournament locks (UConn, St. John’s and Villanova), 1 team currently in the Next 4 Out (Seton Hall), and a long shot (Georgetown) looking to capture some Big East magic of yesteryear as a tournament semifinalist. The Hoyas would need to win the whole damn thing to make the field of 68, and the same may be said of Seton Hall. The Pirates would have an outside chance of snagging an at-large bid if they upset St. John’s in the semis and put up one heck of a fight against the Huskies.
Mountain West — Regular season champs Utah State will make the NCAA Tournament no matter what happens in the MWC Tournament, but New Mexico and San Diego State — opponents in the semifinals — are still very much in the mix for an at-large, or auto bid. Nevada looms as a bid thief as well, but the Wolf Pack would need to win the conference in order to return to the NCAA Tournament for the third time in 4 seasons.
SEC — We could debate the merits of SEC bubble teams such as Missouri, Texas A&M and Texas, but right now, I have the Tigers, Aggies and Longhorns in the field. That could change, depending on the amount of bid thievery that takes place over the next 2 days. And there are 2 teams left standing in the SEC that could complicate matters. The Oklahoma Sooners — the 3rd team out in my current projections — and Ole Miss Rebels are still alive in Nashville, and while the Rebels would need to win the SEC Tournament to get into the Big Dance, the Sooners’ path is much more clear. If Oklahoma defeats Arkansas, the Sooners would temporarily be moved into the field of 68, and if they manage to upset Alabama in the semifinals and make it to the championship round, then Selection Sunday could be kind to Porter Moser’s squad.
SDS Bracketology: Our latest NCAA Tournament projections (March 13) Saturday Down South.
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