Who are the best FPL Challenge GW30 picks? Players who have three or more goal attempts will receive an additional six points this week. We use Opta data to find the top players to target in the Premier League.
In Gameweek 30 of FPL Challenge, Goal Threat, we’re going back to basics: any player who records three or more attempts at goal will receive an additional six points. That means we’re going to see some top-heavy lineups this week.
There feels like no better opportunity to remind readers of Opta Analyst’s Premier League Player Stat Predictions page, which features data-driven Premier League player stat predictions every week for goals, assists, shots, passes, tackles, cards and more.
Among those with a good chance of starting, let’s see which players are predicted to have the most shots in Gameweek 30:
What becomes immediately clear is that Opta’s prediction model thinks Liverpool could do some serious damage against Tottenham Hotspur on Sunday. Remember, though: you can only pick a maximum of one player per club.
There is also the added complication of this Gameweek falling between the first and second legs of the UEFA Champions League knockout phase, meaning many of these players run the risk of being substituted early or rested entirely.
Unsurprisingly, we’ll be setting up in a 1-1-1-3 formation this week.
Goalkeeper
Dean Henderson: Crystal Palace vs Leeds United (H)
One of the toughest decisions this week is selecting a goalkeeper, largely because the teams most likely to keep a clean sheet this week (Arsenal, Liverpool, Brentford) have players further up the pitch that we’d rather prioritise.
With that in mind, our pick between the sticks is Dean Henderson, whose Crystal Palace side host Leeds United on Sunday.
Palace appear to be finding a hint of rhythm after a sharp drop-off in performance during the festive period, and it wouldn’t be surprising to see them frustrate a Leeds side who have failed to score in their last two Premier League games.
Defender:
Gabriel Magalhães: Arsenal vs Everton (H)
We aren’t expecting Gabriel Magalhães to hit the three-shot threshold this week (he is yet to do so this season), but if any defender were to manage it, few would be surprised given his threat from set-pieces.
Three goals, four assists and 13 clean sheets combine to earn Gabriel 7.1 points per start on average this season in FPL, the second most of any player behind Erling Haaland (7.2). That’s why he’s a lock for this column on a near-weekly basis.
Midfielder
Bruno Fernandes: Manchester United vs Aston Villa (H)
Another column regular is Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes, whose predicted shot tally for this Gameweek is 2.77 – narrowly outside the top 10.
The reason we’ll be picking Fernandes ahead of other midfielders with marginally higher shot projections is simple: Man Utd do not have a European fixture to worry about in midweek. That should mean he’s safe for a full 90-minute appearance, and we don’t have to worry about a frustrating substitution when he’s sat on two shot attempts.
It must be said, of course, that most of his threat comes from setting players up rather than scoring himself. He has 14 assists in the Premier League this season – six more than any other player – and needs just one more to tie David Beckham for the single-season record for Man Utd.
Forwards
Hugo Ekitiké: Liverpool vs Tottenham Hotspur (H)
Our first forward selection is Liverpool’s Hugo Ekitiké, who will be licking his lips at the prospect of facing Tottenham Hotspur this weekend.
Liverpool aren’t exactly in top form either, having lost the first leg of their UEFA Champions League tie against Galatasaray, but Spurs are at their lowest ebb in memory, and fantasy managers can capitalise on their strife.
Ekitiké has the highest predicted shot tally of any player in FPL this week, with 3.85, and his predicted goal tally (0.79) is the highest, too. He will captain our side this week.
Igor Thiago: Brentford vs Wolves (H)
Next up is Brentford’s Igor Thiago, who has the second-highest predicted shot tally this week, with 3.36.
Thiago faces a Wolves side who, on the back of wins against Aston Villa and Liverpool, are dreaming of a miracle escape from certain relegation this season. They have no time to spare, and that means they’re likely to push for a victory against Brentford if the opportunity arises.
Ready to benefit is Thiago, who has already eclipsed all expectations this season with 21 goals in all competitions, adding two more last time out in the FA Cup against West Ham.
João Pedro: Chelsea vs Newcastle United (H)
The most in-form player in the Premier League right now may well be Chelsea’s João Pedro. The Brazilian has earned an astonishing 76 points since Gameweek 22 – the next most in this timeframe is Bruno Fernandes with 60.
Chelsea trail by three goals against Paris Saint-Germain in the UEFA Champions League, and given they are only ahead of Liverpool in fifth place in the Premier League on goal difference, they will surely play their strongest XI against Newcastle.
Newcastle are themselves unlikely to qualify for European football next season via league table placement, and they are likely to rotate to a degree against Chelsea before seeing if they can pull off an unlikely result at Camp Nou.
With João Pedro’s predicted shot tally of 3.18, we now have each of three forwards with the best shot estimates this week.
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Nico O’Reilly is your best shot at reaching the three-shot threshold with a defender this week, given he has nine shots across his last three league games in a midfield role. Alas, he struggled against Real Madrid in midweek and could be rested here.
Marcus Tavernier is estimated to have 2.63 shots for Bournemouth against Burnley – he has nine shots across his last two appearances.
Benjamin Sesko is a strong alternative to Bruno Fernandes as a Man Utd pick. The Slovenian is averaging 3.5 shots per 90 minutes in the Premier League this season, the third-most of any player.
Opta Analyst’s Team Reveal: Gameweek 30 FPL Challenge Picks
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FPL Challenge GW30 Picks: Six Points for Three or More Goal Attempts Opta Analyst.
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