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The Primary Showed a Weak GOP Establishment
A perspective from Alexander H. Jones
I never knew Phil Berger was a wine connoisseur. At his watch party in Rockingham County, the President Pro Tem, equipped with his Latin title and entourage of worthies, served wine in plastic cups and conversed with Important Men in good suits. The Senator, who likes the role of political boss, held a highbrow soiree to observe the possible end of his political career. When the results came in, he was down by two votes.
Last Tuesday’s Republican primary brought sobering disappointments for the GOP elite. In both Berger’s primary and the primary for U.S. Senate, GOP leaders’ preferred candidates lagged behind the outcomes a vastly well-funded, long-entrenched Republican power structure should have guaranteed for them. The NCGOP has delivered spectacular results for its base for 15 years. The plebeians in the countryside did not reciprocate their betters with thanks.
Michael Whatley is running with the full support of Donald Trump, the God-Emperor of Red America. Whatley’s Trump-backing ought to be common knowledge in the state after this lifelong political apparatchik spent months boasting of his fealty to the pater familias. But in the primary Whatley’s performance was merely adequate. He won two-thirds of the vote—typical for Trump’ endorsees, per my fellow Substacker Michael Bitzer. But 35% of Republican voters voted against Whatley even though he spent millions of dollars emphasizing his support from Donald Trump. Given that he got only the typical two-thirds of the vote, it appears that the Trump endorsement was the only asset Whatley carried into this race. His personal attributes (whatever they are) didn’t score him any support over the minimal Trump dividend.
One third—more than one-third—of Republican primary voters pulled the lever for one of Michael Whatley’s opponents. Their preference for alternative candidates came even though neither Don Brown, nor Michele Morrow, nor any of the lesser-known contenders ran TV ads. Whatley was the only candidate making use of the main medium for reaching GOP voters, and he still lost 35% of the vote to opponents’ whose media presence was limited to the internet and radio ads. This suggests strong resistance to Whatley from the party’s most-MAGA voters. I also wonder what would have happened if Brown had run TV ads. I think it’s possible the final outcome would have been much closer.
But at least Whatley won the primary. Phil Berger has not yet won his—and he currently sits at a 2-vote disadvantage. I think it’s important to remove ourselves from the day-to-day political narrative a little bit and view Berger’s results from a critical distance. Phil Berger is the most powerful man in North Carolina. I believe that he has been the single-most influential individual legislator in North Carolina history. And he lost his on election night.
Imagine if Nancy Pelosi had lost to the sheriff of San Francisco on election night. Then imagine that Nancy Pelosi had actually been more powerful than the President of the United States and had still lost. Spend a moment immersed in that thought experiment, and you’ll have a legitimate picture of what happened to Berger on Tuesday night.
Based on Whatley’s mediocre victory and Berger’s indeterminate outcome, it appears that Republican leaders have lost quite a bit of support from their base. This is both remarkable and devastating. The NCGOP establishment has fully embraced MAGA populism in an effort to placate, and stoke, their strongest supporters. Despite institutionalizing radicalism, GOP leaders are losing the support of the state’s MAGA voters. The GOP has often been resilient in North Carolina, outperforming expectations. But the March 3 primary suggests that the red-hot zealots who powered an era of Republican rule are losing faith in their self-appointed champions, and Berger is losing to a man who dresses like the Texas Pete logo.
“Viewpoints” on Chapelboro is a recurring series of community-submitted opinion columns. All thoughts, ideas, opinions and expressions in this series are those of the author, and do not reflect the work or reporting of 97.9 The Hill and Chapelboro.com.
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