Manchester City will face Real Madrid for the 16th time in the UEFA Champions League. Look ahead to Wednesday’s last-16 first-leg match at the Santiago Bernabéu with our Real Madrid vs Man City prediction and preview.
Real Madrid vs Man City: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes Manchester City (45.5% win probability) the favourites to beat Real Madrid (29.9%) Man City will face Madrid for the 16th time in the UEFA Champions League (W5 D5 L5), twice as often as they have faced any other team in the competition. Only Bayern Munich (eight) and Juventus (seven) have won more Champions League games against Real Madrid than Man City (five).Death, taxes, and Real Madrid going up against Manchester City in the UEFA Champions League. Some things are just inevitable.
Once again, these two heavyweights will do battle in the knockout stages.
These teams have gone up against each other in knockout ties in the past four campaigns. This will be the first time that two sides have met in the knockout phase of the Champions League in five consecutive seasons.
So, there isn’t really much new for City to learn about Los Blancos, or vice versa. It is second in La Liga versus second in the Premier League, too.
Pep Guardiola’s team were knocked out by Real Madrid in the play-off round last season, and they have already faced off this term, with City winning 2-1 at the Santiago Bernabéu in the league phase.
Rodrygo scored Madrid’s goal in that game, but he will be absent for this tie, out for the season due to an ACL injury that will also keep him out of the FIFA World Cup.
Kylian Mbappé netted four times in last season’s play-off tie, but he too is a big doubt for this one, having missed Madrid’s last three games due to a knee issue.
The France star has scored more Champions League goals against Man City than any other opponent (seven). He has already netted 13 times in the competition this term, meaning he is just four short of Cristiano Ronaldo’s single-season record of 17.
Jude Bellingham is another injury concern for the Spanish giants, who got back on track after successive La Liga defeats by beating Celta Vigo 2-1 on Friday, thanks to Federico Valverde’s last-gasp goal.
So, the onus could well be on Vinícius Júnior to do the damage for Alvaro Arbeloa’s team.
The Brazilian is on 25 Champions League assists. He needs two more to match the tally managed by Man City great Kevin De Bruyne, Madrid legend Raul, and his former teammate Karim Benzema (all 27).
Among teams still remaining in the 2025-26 edition and prior to the round of 16 ties, the two players who have accounted for the highest share of their side’s goals in the Champions League this term are Mbappé (54% – 13/24) and Erling Haaland (47% – 7/15).
And while Mbappe is a doubt, Haaland should be set to lead City’s line.
Since the start of the 2019-20 edition (Haaland’s first UCL campaign), only four players have registered 50+ goal involvements in the Champions League – three of which play for either Madrid (Mbappé 71, Vinícius Jr 55) or City (Haaland 61), along with Barcelona’s Robert Lewandowski (63).
Haaland and his fellow City attackers will, though, be going up against a fine goalkeeper.
Since (and including) the 2022 final against Liverpool, Madrid’s Thibaut Courtois has only conceded 39 goals (excl. OGs) from 53.2 xG on target faced in the Champions League. This positive differential (+14.2) is the highest of any goalkeeper in the competition in this period.
At the other end, City’s defence could also have their work cut out.
The last away team to keep a clean sheet in a Champions League knockout stage game away to Madrid was Barcelona, who were managed by Guardiola (2-0 win), back in April 2011.
Since then, the Spanish side have scored in 39 home games in a row, averaging 2.2 goals per match (86 in total).
And we could be in for a clash of styles over this two-legged encounter.
Coming into the round of 16 ties, City have scored the most goals following build-up sequences (six) in the Champions League this season, while no side has netted more following direct attacks than Madrid (four – level with Benfica). The La Liga giants are also ranked first for total direct attacks (31) this term.
This is also a special occasion for Guardiola. It’ll mark his 190th Champions League match as a manager, equalling Alex Ferguson’s total in the competition.
Following this fixture, Guardiola will only trail former Madrid boss Carlo Ancelotti (218) on the list of most Champions League games by managers.
City are seven points off Premier League leaders Arsenal, and while Guardiola has not given up on the title hunt, it may well be that European glory is more likely than a domestic triumph.
According to the Opta supercomputer, City are fourth favourites to win the Champions League (11.1%). Remarkably, Madrid’s chances are ranked at just 1.9%.
Real Madrid vs Man City Head-to-Head
Man City have been eliminated from the Champions League by Real Madrid on four previous occasions. Madrid are the only side to knock City out more than twice in the competition. That includes in each of the last two seasons: 2023-24 quarter-finals and 2024-25 play-offs.
However, only Bayern (eight) and Juventus (seven) have won more Champions League games against Real Madrid than Man City (five).
Of the last six meetings between these teams, it is an even split of two City wins, two Madrid victories and two draws.
Real Madrid vs Man City Prediction
Man City are made the favourites to win this match by the Opta supercomputer, with a 45.5% win probability.
Madrid’s chances come in at 29.9%, while there is a 24.6% likelihood of a draw.
Overall, City are also the favourites to progress from the tie, with our model handing them a 69.0% chance of making the last eight.
Real Madrid vs Man City Predicted Lineups
Real Madrid: Thibaut Courtois, Trent Alexander-Arnold, Raúl Asencio, Antonio Rüdiger, Ferland Mendy, Federico Valverde, Arda Güler, Aurélien Tchouaméni, Thiago Pitarch, Vinícius Júnior, Gonzalo García.
Head coach: Alvaro Arbeloa
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Marc Guéhi, Rúben Dias, Rayan Aït-Nouri, Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Rayan Cherki, Omar Marmoush, Jérémy Doku, Erling Haaland.
Manager: Pep Guardiola
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night in Spain, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Real Madrid vs Man City Prediction: Heavyweights Set for Another Champions League Reunion Opta Analyst.
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