World Baseball Classic Predictions: Team USA Bulks Up Pitching to Match the Power Bats ...Middle East

The U.S. lineup is flexing its muscle again at the 2026 World Baseball Classic, and a stronger pitching staff really stands out as the pre-tournament favorite tries to overcome defending champ Japan, the Dominican Republic and the rest of the 20-nation field.

The enduring image of the 2023 World Baseball Classic – maybe for all WBCs – is Shohei Ohtani striking out Mike Trout in the bottom of the ninth inning of the championship game.

The epic sequence came down to a 3-2 count, Japan holding a 3-2 lead, and the then-Los Angeles Angels teammates squaring off in a Hollywood script of an at-bat.

Team USA had what it wanted in the home run power of the once-generational player Trout; Team Japan had what it wanted in the shutdown pitching from Ohtani’s two-way tool belt.

Fast forward three years to the 2026 WBC, which begins for 20 national teams this week and concludes with the championship game on March 17 in Miami, and returning U.S. manager Mark DeRosa has another lineup stacked with MLB sluggers. The difference in the sixth edition of the tournament is the Americans also have a pitching staff that’s not only decidedly stronger than in 2023 but is their best ever on paper.

Of course, what’s on paper doesn’t always materialize on the field. Team USA has always been among the pre-tournament favorites, but it failed to medal in any of the first three WBCs in 2006, ’09 and ’13 before it finally won the 2017 WBC with pitcher Marcus Stroman earning tournament MVP.

After Japan once again unveiled elite pitching while claiming its third WBC title in 2023, DeRosa made who’s on the mound for Team USA this year a priority with the pressure on to deliver a title. The Opta supercomputer installs the Americans as the team to beat. 

Elite Pitchers in Their Prime

A pitch count is in place during the WBC, with a maximum of 65 in the first round escalating to 95 for the championship round, so starters generally work only four, five, six innings. At the least, stronger pitching will be good for DeRosa’s in-game stress level: The United States trailed in five of its seven games while going 5-2 in the 2023 WBC.

That staff, which posted a 4.20 ERA and 1.32 WHIP in the tournament, included just two left-handers among 14 pitchers and had an average fastball velocity of 92.4 (per MLB.com) that ranked just ninth out of the 20 teams. The four right-handers who made all the starts had an average age of 38: Adam Wainwright, then 41, Nick Martinez, 32, Lance Lynn, 35, and Merrill Kelly, 34.

This time around, DeRosa doesn’t just have more pitchers in their prime, he’s anchored the staff with the two reigning Cy Young Award winners – Detroit Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal, who’s claimed the AL award in the last two seasons, and Pittsburgh Pirates righty Paul Skenes, who took top NL honors one year after being its rookie of the year. Skenes is committed to pitching twice in the WBC, but Skubal just once.

Our advanced metric raw value- measures how a pitcher performs with command, swing-and-miss ability and other factors throughout an at-bat rather than just the end result. The league average is 100, with the lower, the better, and Skenes (41 RV-) and Skubal (44 RV-) easily ranked No. 1 and 2, respectively, in MLB last year.

San Francisco Giants ace Logan Webb (90 RV-, 18th among MLB qualifying pitchers) is scheduled to start the United States’ first game in Pool B against Brazil followed by Skubal against Great Britain and Skenes versus Mexico.

With Joe Ryan dropping off the roster this week due to a back issue, the fourth starter against Italy could come from a myriad of options, including New York Mets rookie sensation Nolan McLean (83 RV- in with a 5-1 record, 2.06 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 in eight starts) or Chicago Cubs left-hander Matthew Boyd off his best season (94.3 RV-, 25th). No matter the direction, the average age of the starting pitchers could be anywhere from nine to 12 years younger than in 2023.  

A front four with McLean would be coming off a combined 43-28 record, 2.45 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 last season, while one with Boyd would be coming off a combined 52-35 record, 2.65 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and 9.6 K/9. That’s the kind of pitching success Japan had in the 2023 WBC when its staff went 7-0 with a 2.29 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 11.4 K/9.

Team USA Schedule

Pool B in Houston:

With six left-handers overall, including Ryan Yarbrough replacing Ryan, DeRosa didn’t leave the 2026 staff shorthanded. There’s also Gabe Speier (.179 batting average against to lefties in 2025) and Garrett Cleavinger (.187) as specialists out of the bullpen, and a near-38-year-old Clayton Kershaw on the staff for insurance and a swansong.

It also might be said Team USA has the reliever of the moment. Mason Miller, 27, is one of the hardest throwers in baseball, coming off a season with the Athletics and San Diego Padres when his 15.2 K/9 ranked No. 1 in MLB and his .139 BAA was third among pitchers who faced 85+ batters.

DeRosa even has reason to believe his team has the best version of No. 2 closer option David Bednar, the lone returning pitcher from the 2023 squad. Bednar had just become the Pirates’ closer in 2022, going 3-4 with 19 saves, a 2.61 ERA, 1.12 WHIP and 12.0 K/9. He’s now a veteran of 111 career saves, earning 27 with the Pirates and New York Yankees last season while adding in a 6-5 record, 2.30 ERA, 1.04 WHIP and a personal-best 12.4 K/9.

Another All-Star Lineup

While the pitching differentiates Team USA from its past WBC squads, the Red, White & Blue has long been about flexing muscle in the tournament.

In 2023, the United States had tourney highs of 12 home runs and 30 extra-base hits in seven games. Even with Skubal and Skenes anchoring the pitching this year, three-time AL MVP Aaron Judge is the face of the team, basically filling Trout’s former Captain America role. He led the majors last season with a 185 raw value+, which measures discipline, contact and slug in one metric, with the higher, the better than the 100 league average.

In Cal Raleigh (60), Kyle Schwarber (56) and Judge (53), the United States boasts the No. 1, 2 and 4 home run hitters, respectively, in MLB last year. And, yes, you can expect to see a lot of them near the top of the batting order because DeRosa penciled in a first four of Mookie Betts, Trout, Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado for all of his 2023 WBC lineups.

Bobby Witt Jr. should bat leadoff in a much-larger role from three years ago and is one of four returning position players, along with Schwarber, Goldschmidt and Will Smith. Among active MLB players in the WBC, Goldschmidt ranks No. 1 in career home runs (372) with Judge (368) third, Bryce Harper (363) fourth and Schwarber (340) sixth. Witt and Gunnar Henderson also are top 25 in the majors over the last three seasons.

Losing Corbin Carroll to an injury just before spring training denies Team USA of one of its more multi-faceted offensive threats. Even if it had his speed, the squad probably won’t risk outs on the base path, having attempted just two stolen bases in 2023.

If there’s something the United States could pattern from Japan outside the pitching, it may be taking pitches at the plate – at the least to wait for the ones that offer home run contact. In 2023, the Americans drew half as many walks (64 to 32) as Ohtani and Co.

Sizing Up the WBC Field

The World Baseball Classic consists of four five-nation pools with the top two finishers in each round robin advancing to the quarterfinals.

Japan’s success in the tournament is unmatched, never failing to medal with two third-place finishes in addition to the three titles. Ohtani, a four-time MVP in just eight MLB seasons, his World Series MVP teammate Yoshinobu Yamamoto from the L.A. Dodgers and Chicago Cubs slugger Seiya Suzuki help headline a squad that rivals the United States.

World Baseball Classic

Winning score of championship game in parentheses:

The Dominican Republic, even with winning the 2017 title, has underperformed in its WBC history, notably failing to advance from pool play three years ago. It features the deepest lineup in the tournament with the likes of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Juan Soto, Manny Machado, Julio Rodriguez, Fernando Tatis Jr., Ketel Marte and Oneil Cruz. Whether it has enough pitching to outlast the field is the question, with the top challenge in Pool D coming from Venezuela and a roster with Ronald Acuna Jr., Eugenio Suarez, Salvador Perez and the Contreras brothers, William and Wilson.

Mexico, which finished third in the 2023 WBC, is considered the biggest threat to the United States in Pool B, but even with Randy Arozarena, Jarren Duran and Andres Munoz, it lacks the same star power.

Quite simply, the pressure is on Team USA on home soil. But with the pitching bulked up alongside the power bats, there’s an increased chance of it being the last nation standing in the 2026 WBC.

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World Baseball Classic Predictions: Team USA Bulks Up Pitching to Match the Power Bats Opta Analyst.

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