British intelligence are closely monitoring Iranian sleeper cells in the UK amid heightened fears of hostile retaliation to Donald Trump’s critical military strikes on Iran, The i Paper understands.
While UK officials believe the US and Israel will be priority targets for Tehran’s response, several intelligence and counterterrorism sources have said British support has significantly increased the risk of retaliation on UK streets.
Iranian intelligence has traditionally used spies and proxies to plot assassinations of dissidents in the UK. But there are fears that the regime’s activities could expand to terror incidents, cyber attacks and the spread of misinformation across the West.
After initially denying the US access to UK airbases for strikes against Iran, Sir Keir Starmer reversed his decision on Sunday. American troops are now able to utilise bases such as RAF Fairford, in Gloucestershire, and Diego Garcia, in the Indian Ocean, for defensive strikes against Iran.
The US military action, co-ordinated with Israel, killed Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and a number of high-ranking regime officials on Saturday. This sparked a string of retaliatory strikes at nearby Western targets, including the RAF Akrotiri base in Cyprus.
Retaliation could also see state-backed Iranian terrorism or cyber operations against critical British infrastructure, such as banks and energy supplies.
A UK intelligence source said British involvement in the conflict risked an increase of cyber attacks from Tehran, while a counter-terror official warned of an increase in “lone wolf” attacks.
They told The i Paper there could be “thousands of individuals” who might see an “opportunity and a cause to attack now”. In a worst-case scenario, they warned, the UK could potentially witness a “series of attacks in the UK similar to 2017”.
That year the country endured a deadly string of terror attacks, with five incidents resulting in 40 people killed and more than 900 injured. The deadliest was a bombing at an Ariana Grande concert in the Manchester Arena.
The aftermath of an Iranian retaliatory strike on Dubai. Tehran’s response to US-Israeli attacks has so far been limited to the wider region but could reach Western cities, experts warn (Photo: Altaf Qadri/AP)A Cabinet Office source said that while Tehran will be looking to respond within the West, the UK is a “significantly lesser target” compared to the US.
The official added that UK intelligence officers tasked with monitoring Iranian espionage in Britain are actively monitoring sleeper cells to get ahead of any hostile reaction.
“I can confidently say that MI5 is going to be closely monitoring these units,” they told The i Paper. “They will be looking at who is coming and going [in and out of the UK] over the next few weeks and months.”
Andreas Krieg, associate professor in Security Studies at King’s College London, said sleeper cells traditionally used to harass Iranian dissidents could feasibly be “repurposed for retaliation” – providing surveillance or “introductions to criminal intermediaries”.
Such networks, he said, can act as “a safe layer between a planner overseas and an executor on the ground”. However, he cautioned that moving from harassment to a physical attack would mark “a significant escalation” carrying far higher operational risk and a greater chance of disruption.
The National Cyber Security Centre (NCSC), the UK’s cyber agency, advised local organisations to review security methods in response to the evolving events in the Middle East.
The guidance, issued on Monday, warned there was “almost certainly a heightened risk” of cyber threat for organisations and entities that have a presence, or supply chains, in the Middle East.
“Iranian state and Iran-linked cyber actors almost certainly currently maintain at least some capability to conduct cyber activity,” the NCSC notice warned.
On Sunday evening, an alert to US service personnel was shared on social media, warning them to turn off location settings on mobile devices in fear of retaliatory attacks.
The US Department of War has since called these alerts false, and the Cabinet Office source said this was an example of “Iranian misinformation”.
“They want to make Western societies feel vulnerable,” they said. “Iranians follow US politics, they will know midterms are coming up, understand polls and will want to turn public opinion against Trump’s actions in Iran.”
Matthew Dunn, a former MI6 field officer, warned the Iranian state will “lash out” at anyone it sees aligned to the US strikes, including the UK, using a combination of human and cyber tactics.
“Sleeper cells and Iranian proxies in the UK, mainland Europe, and the US will be activated,” he said. “Military targets will of course be an objective but more worryingly will be the softer targets of Iranian diaspora who could be political candidates for regime change.”
Threat level increase
There has been no change to the UK’s national terror threat level, which currently sits at “substantial” – meaning an attack is probable – but this paper understands that MI5 is monitoring threats rising from the instability in the Middle East.
On Sunday, Defence Secretary, John Healey, said there was a risk of “increasing Iranian indiscriminate retaliatory attacks” which required a review of the threat level. There are two higher levels – “severe” and “critical”.
Speaking on Sky News, Healey said: “When you have some of [Iran’s] proxies capable of other actions on their behalf then of course our force protection in the region is at its highest. Our alert and vigilance in the UK is also high.”
On Saturday, Starmer said the Iranian regime was “utterly abhorrent” and said it poses a “direct threat” to dissidents and the Jewish community in the UK.
Last year, Sir Ken McCallum, director-general of MI5, said the agency’s state threats investigations had increased by 48 per cent in the previous 12 months, noting that since January 2022, the police and MI5 had responded to 20 Iran-backed plots presenting potentially lethal threats.
The UK counter-terror official who spoke to this paper said they expected Britain’s terror threat level to be raised “imminently”, adding: “If it isn’t, I can’t think of a threat-based assessment scenario that would conclude that it shouldn’t be.”
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