Care to dance? We’re diving through the men’s basketball conference tournaments to reveal our super computer projections for all competing teams.
Upsets. Buzzer-beaters. Improbable runs. Epic performances.
March Madness begins with the conference tournaments that go a long way toward who will get into 2026 NCAA Tournament and the seeding there.
Cinderellas will sneak in, bubbles will burst, and the cream will rise to the top.
Leagues like the ACC, Big 12 and SEC will have teams doing all they can to boost their resumes for Selection Sunday. Others will need to win their tournament to be one of 68. And sure, there are some teams that are locks to make the Big Dance but looking to improve their seeding.
We’ve simulated each conference tournament thousands of times using TRACR (Team Rating Adjusted for Conference and Roster). It’s a net efficiency metric that calculates a team’s points per possession on both sides of the ball, adjusted for the strength of the opponent.
TRACR represents how many points above or below a team is per 100 possessions. An average team is at 0.0, while a really good team might have a TRACR rating of 20 or more.
As an example, a team with a TRACR rating of 20 is projected to outscore an average team by .20 points per possession (20 divided by 100) in a game. If the game had 70 possessions, then that team would be expected to outscore the average team by 0.2*70=14 points.
We’re going to dive through each conference field, starting with the first league tourneys to get underway this week, and see who our model favors. The teams within each conference are ranked by the highest probability of winning the league tournament, with that probability in parentheses.
(Conference tournament odds for each team are their projection entering the tourney. Some conferences are still finishing their regular season; these projections will continually update after the end of each conference’s regular season.)
Atlantic Sun
1. Central Arkansas (26.6%) 2. Austin Peay (25.2%) 3. Lipscomb (17.8%) 4. Queens University (16.9%) 5. Bellarmine (3.3%) 6. West Georgia (2.8%) 7. FGCU (2.5%) 8. Eastern Kentucky (2.1%) 9. Jacksonville (1.4%) 10. Stetson (0.8%) 11. North Florida (0.3%) 12. North Alabama (0.3%)The Atlantic Sun regular season ended in a tightly contested battle, with Central Arkansas and Austin Peay both finishing 15-3 in conference play. That reinforces their status as co-favorites entering the Atlantic Sun Tournament.
Central Arkansas is powered by freshman Ty Robinson, who leads the conference in WAR (2.85), and guard Camren Hunter leads in scoring at 19.7 points per game. Austin Peay counters with senior Collin Parker, who paces the Governors in both scoring and WAR, giving them a proven option in high-leverage moments.
Even with Central Arkansas and Austin Peay holding slight statistical edges, Lipscomb and Queens remain firmly in the mix. Junior guard Mateo Esmeraldo ranks second in the conference in WAR and leads a Lipscomb team capable of stretching defenses, while Queens brings balance with six players – yes, six! – averaging 10+ points. In a single-elimination format, that depth could close the narrow gap at the top.
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1. High Point (65.3%) 2. Winthrop (13.6%) 3. Charleston Southern (5.1%) 4. Longwood (4.6%) 5. Presbyterian (4.5%) 6. Radford (4.2%) 7. UNC Asheville (2.4%) 8. USC Upstate (0.3%) 9. Gardner-Webb (Hence then, the article about men s basketball conference tournaments predictions for ncaa bids at stake this week was published today ( ) and is available on The Analyst ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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