Arsenal are considered the favourites by the Opta supercomputer when they visit Brighton & Hove Albion on Wednesday. Look ahead to the game at the Amex Stadium with our Brighton vs Arsenal prediction and preview.
Brighton vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
The Opta Supercomputer rates Arsenal as favourites for this clash with a win probability of 56% to Brighton’s 22%. Arsenal have scored 14 goals in six Premier League away games since the turn of the year, a rate of 2.3 per game. Only two of the last nine Premier League meetings between Brighton and Arsenal have been won by the home side.Arsenal will hope their improved goals return on the road since the turn of the year can see them to a crucial victory in Wednesday’s Premier League trip to Brighton & Hove Albion.
The Gunners defeated Chelsea 2-1 on Sunday to protect a five-point lead over second-place Manchester City, who still have a game in hand over Mikel Arteta’s men.
One statistic should give the Gunners hope of victory on the south coast. Between August and December, Arsenal managed just 11 goals in nine away Premier League games at an average of 1.2 per game. However, since then they have netted 14 in six on their travels at an average of 2.3 per game.
It is also little secret that Arsenal have enjoyed a real propensity for set-piece goals in recent times. Of the 20 occasions they have gone 1-0 up in the top flight this season, their opening goal came from either a set-piece or a penalty in 13 of them. That represents the joint-most set-piece/penalty opening goals by any side in a single Premier League campaign.
Arsenal have also impressed in evening kick-offs and are unbeaten in their last 19 night (19:00 or later) Premier League matches (W14, D5) since a 2-0 home loss to West Ham in December 2023. However, all three games to meet that criteria in 2026 have finished level (0-0 versus Liverpool, 1-1 against Brentford, 2-2 with Wolves).
Viktor Gyökeres has been enjoying some good form on the road for the Gunners. The Sweden striker has been involved in six goals in his last seven away games in all competitions (five goals, one assist) after scoring just twice (no assists) in his first 12 on the road for the club.
Only two of the last nine Premier League meetings between Brighton and Arsenal have been won by the home side (3 draws, 4 away wins), though Arsenal won 2-1 earlier this season. The last time both league fixtures between the two were won by the home team was in 2017-18.
Brighton go into this game on the high of recording back-to-back victories over Brentford and Nottingham Forest, and they are looking to win three league games on the spin for the first time since May last year.
The Seagulls have won two of their last four Premier League home games against the team starting the day top of the table (D1 L1), both by a 3-2 scoreline. However, those victories came after their opponents had already won the Premier League title (Man City in May 2021, Liverpool in May 2025).
Danny Welbeck was on target in Sunday’s 2-1 win over Forest, meaning the former Arsenal forward has now scored 10 Premier League goals this season, matching a personal best set in 2024-25.
One more goal would make him only the third player to score more than 10 goals in a Premier League season for the very first time while aged 35 or older, after Gary McAllister in 1990-00 and Zlatan Ibrahimovic in 2016-17 (both were 35).
Declan Rice is an injury concern for Arsenal after he had to be replaced in the Chelsea win, while captain Martin Ødegaard and Ben White remain doubts after missing out against the Blues. Yasin Ayari will hope to be back involved for Brighton, but Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas remain long-term absentees.
Brighton vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
Arsenal lost two of their first three Premier League visits to the Amex against Brighton, and drew the other.
However, they have not lost any of their five trips since 2020-21 (W3, D2).
Brighton have won two, drawn three, and lost six of their previous 11 Premier League meetings with Arsenal.
Both the wins they celebrated, however, came at the Emirates Stadium – a 2-1 win in April 2022, and a 3-0 victory in May 2023.
Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction
Arsenal are considered the strong favourites to leave the Amex Stadium with all three points on Wednesday, with the Opta supercomputer giving the Gunners a 56% chance of victory.
By contrast, the Seagulls have a 22% win probability, while the draw is also rated as a 22% shot.
In terms of the season overall, Arsenal’s lead at the top of the Premier League has been cut by Man City in recent weeks, but they are still rated as having an 83.3% chance of finishing the season as champions.
Brighton sit 11th and their projections are way more varied, though currently the likeliest probability is 10th (14.9%).
Brighton vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Brighton: Bart Verbruggen, Mats Wieffer, Jan Paul van Hecke, Lewis Dunk, Ferdi Kadioglu, Carlos Baleba, Yasin Ayari, Yankuba Minteh, Georginio Rutter, Kaoru Mitoma, Danny Welbeck.
Head coach: Fabian Hürzeler
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurrien Timber, William Saliba, Gabriel Magalhães, Riccardo Calafiori, Martín Zubimendi, Christian Nørgaard, Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Leandro Trossard, Viktor Gyökeres.
Manager: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Brighton vs Arsenal Prediction: Can Gunners Continue Excellent League Form Under the Floodlights? Opta Analyst.
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