College basketball efficiency is at historic highs. The 2-point shot is why ...Middle East

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College basketball efficiency is at historic highs. The 2-point shot is why

College basketball’s 3-point revolution has been underway for years, but it’s peaking now. The 2026 season is on pace to be the first year where 3-point attempt rate is north of 40%. 

And yet, it’s the 2-point shot that’s driving one of the biggest explosions in offensive efficiency that this sport has seen.  

    At all levels, basketball has undergone massive analytical changes over the past decade. It started at the highest level in the NBA, where figures such as Daryl Morey and Steph Curry ushered in a drastic shift in basketball strategy almost overnight. 

    Since the heyday of Morey Ball, the 3-point shot has been increasing in popularity among teams for a simple reason: Math. Some prefer to blame (or credit, depending on who is talking) “analytics,” but it’s just simple math. If you make 50% of your 2s, it’s worth 1 point per shot. If you make 40% of your 3s, it’s worth 1.2 points per shot. Math. Nothing fancy. 

    Thus, basketball decision-makers began to bang the table for more 3-point shots. They were objectively correct, supported by the math explained above so long as their team had even mediocre shooting talent. Every year from 2003 through 2024, 3-point attempts yielded more on a per-shot basis than 2-point shots, sometimes by as much as .074 points per shot. Magnified over an entire season, that’s an enormous difference in offensive efficiency. 

    Prediction Markets 2026 College Basketball Champion? Learn more about Prediction Markets Kalshi Michigan 21% Duke 18% Arizona 12% Houston 9% Florida 9% UConn 7% Illinois 7% Iowa St. 5% Kansas 4% Purdue 4% Predict

    College basketball efficiency is at historic highs. The 2-point shot is why Saturday Down South.

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