After last week’s one-sided first leg in Azerbaijan, we look ahead to Tuesday’s UEFA Champions League clash with our Newcastle vs Qarabag prediction and preview.
Newcastle vs Qarabag: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer has given Eddie Howe’s men a substantial 77.7% chance of another win against Qarabag in the second leg. Another victory for Newcastle would set a new club record for a single Champions League campaign, surpassing five wins from 12 games back in 2002-03. Outside of qualifying, Qarabag have conceded an average of three goals per game in the UCL this season, including 12 in their last two matches.With almost two feet already in the last 16, Newcastle United will be looking to finish the job on Tuesday evening when they host Qarabag for the second leg of their UEFA Champions League play-off.
The pair met in Azerbaijan for the first leg last week in what was a first Champions League knockout game with both clubs, and the Premier League side strolled to a 6-1 victory at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.
Anthony Gordon became both the 18th player to score four goals in one Champions League match – all in the first half, including two from the penalty spot – and the first Englishman to bag a hat-trick in the knockout phase.
Having also missed a couple of gilt-edged chances, Gordon could have had two hat-tricks on the night, but still became the second-quickest English player to reach double figures for goals in the Champions League (10 in 15 appearances), just behind Harry Kane (10 in 12).
Indeed, the only players with more goals for a Premier League club in one Champions League campaign are Ruud van Nistelrooy (12 for Manchester United in 2002-03) and Erling Haaland (12 for Manchester City in 2022-23).
Newcastle have now scored in their last 11 Champions League fixtures, at an average above two goals per game. Only Bayern Munich (15) are currently on a longer streak.
Should Howe’s side win again on Tuesday, it will be their sixth UCL victory from 10 games this season, which would set a new club record for victories achieved in a single edition, surpassing a tally of five from 12 outings in 2002-03.
By stark contrast, Qarabag will arrive at St. James’ Park with history stacked against them, perhaps hoping to end an otherwise groundbreaking campaign with their dignity intact.
The Azeri side face a 2,529-mile trip to the north east of England, a country where they have been beaten on all five previous visits by an aggregate score of 19-1.
Newcastle’s first-leg success also means English sides have won nine of 10 games against Qarabag in major European competition (D1), with an overall scoreline of 33-2.
Despite squeezing through the league phase, Gurban Gurbanov’s team have leaked 27 goals, just one shy of the most conceded by any team in a single season in the Champions League: Bayer Leverkusen let in 28 across 17 games back in 2001-02.
Qarabag are also one of just three teams this century to concede six goals in back-to-back Champions League games in the same campaign, having lost 6-0 to Liverpool at Anfield in their final league-phase game, before their humbling at home to Newcastle.
While they somehow need to win by at least five goals on Tuesday, the Baku-based club can cling to a very slight slither of hope. Their biggest European victories have been by a five-goal margin, having hit that mark on three separate occasions, most recently in the 2024-25 Champions League qualifiers against Ludogorets when they won 7-2 in Bulgaria.
A much tougher test awaits this week, though; Newcastle have never lost a European match by more than three goals.
The Magpies may also be in the mood to break new ground. They last won a two-legged continental tie by five or more back in 2004-05, thumping Olympiakos 7-1 in the UEFA Cup. Meanwhile, their biggest aggregate win is by eight goals, against Antwerp in 1994 (10-2).
It remains to be seen whether Howe’s men try and ease through the game in a lower gear, though, with a tough looking game against Everton at St. James’ Park to come at the weekend.
Newcastle come into this game off a decent showing at title-chasing Man City on Saturday evening, albeit in a 2-1 loss. Lewis Hall’s deflected strike pulled them level midway through an eventful first half at the Etihad Stadium, though they ultimately succumbed to a 17th straight league defeat at City’s ground.
They did so without captain and top scorer Bruno Guimaraes, whose hamstring injury will keep him out of Tuesday’s game – plus a potential last-16 tie – while Fabian Schar and Tino Livramento are also sidelined.
After missing the trip to Manchester, Lewis Miley, Yoane Wissa and Sven Botman will be assessed, though Howe is unlikely to take any risks with progress all but assured.
Qarabag – whose domestic fixture against Neftci was cancelled to aid preparations – will still be without injured goalkeeper Shahrudin Mahammadaliyev.
While they can only dream of a miraculous comeback, any slim hopes could rest on Colombian forward Camilo Duran, who has scored four Champions League goals this season.
Newcastle vs Qarabag Head-to-Head
Newcastle’s 6-1 win in Baku was the clubs’ first-ever meeting, setting the hosts up as huge favourites for this return leg.
Qarabag’s two previous Champions League games in England have both brought 6-0 defeats – against Chelsea in 2017 and Liverpool last month.
Across all UEFA competitions, the Azeri side have lost five from five on English soil, failing to score on their last four visits.
Newcastle vs Qarabag Prediction
Backing Newcastle to win both legs, the Opta supercomputer gives Howe’s side a huge 77.7% chance of victory on Tuesday night.
Starting with just a 9.5% chance of success, Qarabag rarely prevailed in Opta’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, leaving a 12.8% chance of a draw.
Unsurprisingly, with a 6-1 advantage, the supercomputer has not envisaged many scenarios in its 10,000 sims in which Newcastle do not advance to the last 16. Qarabag only managed a sensational turnaround in 22 of them, meaning Newcastle have a 99.78% chance of going through.
Newcastle vs Qarabag Predicted Lineups
Newcastle: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Sven Botman, Dan Burn, Lewis Hall, Sandro Tonali, Joe Willock, Harvey Barnes, Anthony Elanga, Nick Woltemade, Anthony Gordon.
Head Coach: Eddie Howe
Qarabag: Mateusz Kochalski, Matheus Silva, Bahlul Mustafazada, Kevin Medina, Elvin Cafarquliyev, Pedro Bicalho, Marko Jankovic, Joni Montiel, Leandro Andrade, Abdellah Zoubir, Camilo Durán.
Head Coach: Gurban Gurbanov
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Newcastle vs Qarabag Prediction: Will Magpies Fly Through to Champions League Last 16 in Style? Opta Analyst.
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