Many things were odd about Sir Keir Starmer’s appearance among world leaders and security and tech titans milling in the heat and chatter of the Munich Security Conference.
He arrived as a Prime Minister very nearly topped at home, to deliver a speech with a vast sweep of ambition about the defence of Europe in the years ahead. What it lacked in certainty of outlook, it made up for in rhetorical elevation – and an aim of amping up the UK’s European identity. “We are not,” he said, “the Britain of the Brexit years.”
This is what he would like to convince skeptical EU countries is the case. But in many ways, the UK is very much still a post-Brexit country.
Labour has an immigration and asylum tightening underway, a bitter learning from the failures to heed the anxieties on these subjects which boiled over in the 2016 referendum. It is still conflicted about whether growth for the UK lies with Europe or a more “global Britain” approach. It has an unstable premier – which is a tres post-Brexit thing we keep doing to confuse the neighbours.
And it is in supplicant mode, trying to avoid being caught up in a new protectionism on the continent in schemes like France’s “Made in Europe” proposals which would damage British exporters by prioritising EU-based production in strategic areas green tech and defence.
It’s often said that “never here Keir” goes abroad to get a warmer reception than he gets at home. Closer up, it feels more like the UK is welcome as long as it keeps apologising – the applause lines in a hall with some empty seats were for the parts of the speech which either said the UK would do lots for European defence – or that he was, in effect, not Greens leader Zack Polanski or Reform UK leader Nigel Farage when it came to his outlook on Nato.
The entire government delegation here was under the shadow of the near-death week. When I asked John Healey, the aquiline defence secretary being eyed by anxious centrists as an emergency candidate for an interim premiership, how he thought the week had gone for Labour, he quipped he had been in Norway’s frozen high north to front a boost to Russia-facing troop numbers. It had, he told me, been preferable to sitting through Prime Minister’s Questions. Afterwards, an aide was keen to reassure me that this was indeed to be taken “as a joke – to be clear”.
But for many countries looking at the UK, the outlook is bewildering. On defence, where the currency of influence is money and the ability to spend it quickly, the UK is aiming to leverage its commitment to providing better long-range weaponry and the next generation of drones tested in the conditions that matter – on the Ukrainian battlefields against Russian defence technology – as a national asset.
Starmer reiterated Britain’s commitments to any Nato state which might come under attack under the Article 5 mutual defence clause. Critics might point out that it would be nice if the UK leader had rounded out that sentence by saying that he was sure the same would happen if Britain were to face any form of outright attacks too, given the wandering beam of US attention in such matters. In truth, in the era of hybrid and persistent cyber warfare, that threshold is hard to define precisely.
But Starmer’s speech was really an attempt to remind a preoccupied EU that we are making clear security commitments and deserve to be allowed more trade alignment on non-punitive terms in return.
At home, as MPs lick their wounds after a traumatic week, one centrist backbencher notes that the other problem with these big Starmer sermons is that they tend to pop up without using the opportunity to lead the party through the logic of what is being said, and thereby ensure that there is follow up from junior ministers and MPs who can amplify the message.
In truth, many don’t really know what his reconnection to Europe really means – or tend to dress it in their own preferences.
The Europe minister, Nick Thomas Symonds, does a sturdy job of shuttle diplomacy to pursue the Prime Minister’s treasured “re-connection” and has built strong alliances with Maros Sefkovic, the EU’s most senior trade official. Business Secretary Peter Kyle, meanwhile, sounded early alarms about the need to keep French “Made in Europe” measures from kicking the fragile attempts to reboot UK trade in the shins. And Chancellor Rachel Reeves thinks Europe will cure her growth headache but the evidence for why is scant – or at least not clearly laid out.
Back home, as long as the Defence Investment Plan outlining clear delivery dates for funding to go into orders for weaponry and systems enhancement is delayed, both Army chiefs and defence industry innovators fret in unison about the gap between the Government’s talk at big international gatherings and its capacity to expedite the promised investment at home.
A good deal of this is the result of accumulated delays: spending on arms and security was not wildly popular with many MPs, nor indeed the public and media, before the full invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and the retreat of the US as a guarantor of our safety.
But Starmer has also sought international profile because it gives him a role; he clearly finds it hard to define himself domestically with much authority or consistency. Alas, the question most people here posed about the Prime Minister is, but as one German official put it brutally, “How long has he got?”
Because his own party, officials and ministerial benches struggle to answer that with a straight face, a working assumption is that the “dear Keir” name badge will soon be pinned on someone else. That means that, however intense the Prime Minister’s rhetorical windpower may be, it lacks the hard power or durability to make others sit up and listen.
Anne McElvoy is executive editor at POLITICO and co-host of Politics at Sam and Anne’s
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