ROCHESTER, N.Y. – It’s another cold morning, but far from the subzero temperatures we were having early last week. It’ll be another above-freezing day for us with a mix of sun and clouds, and the warmer trend continues through tomorrow and Tuesday.
Highs will be around 40 degrees both Monday and Tuesday; it’ll be the first time in over a month that we see such warmth. The lakeshore will be a bit cooler by a few degrees however. Some snow will melt over that time, but only around 3 inches or so at most. Several nights ahead will be below freezing, but cloud cover could help limit snowmelt from refreezing… Nevertheless, it’s a good idea to keep your driveway and sidewalk salted to safeguard against any black ice formation. Both days will be largely precipitation free, save for some showers Monday night.
Wednesday is a tricky one. A wave of low pressure spews out from the west which will combine with moist air over the Plains, then split into two low pressure centers, one over Minnesota and one over the lower Great Lakes. This will create some unsettled weather across that stretch… The question is will it be rain, freezing rain, sleet, snow, or a mix for us? The answer lies in the storm’s exact strength and positioning. Our low pressure center will be sandwiched between two wedges of high pressure, creating a tight temperature gradient from north to south, so tight that Buffalo could be 40 degrees while Toronto is 30. That means the line between rain and snow could fall close enough to us to give us some slippery conditions. The good news is it’s increasingly likely that line will be north of us, so right now we believe it will be mostly rain. But colder air wrapping behind the center could still cause some ice or snow briefly overnight. But keep in mind this is a delicate forecast with a higher degree of uncertainty, meaning we’ll have a much better idea over the next 48 hours. Threat Tracker is still Green for now. Make sure to check back in for updates.
Thursday should be mainly dry, but Friday another low pressure system rolls through which will bring us another batch of wintry mixed precipitation. Afterwards the weekend will be colder than normal with northerly air kicking up some lake flakes. The cold punch continues into early next week, but it should not last forever (unlike our last conga with the cold). Stay tuned for more details.
First Alert Weather: Break from the bitter cold continues, and tracking unsettled weather by midweek WHEC.com.
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