T20 World Cup Super 8 qualification scenario, Group D: South Africa, New Zealand clear favourites ...Middle East

ICC Men’s T20 World Cup Group D was dubbed as the ‘group of death’. Two heavyweights in New Zealand and South Africa were the favourites. But the presence of Afghanistan, the dangerous disruptor, added spice. Given the Asian conditions and their resurgence, Afghanistan were backed to cause an upset. UAE and Canada as sides capable of springing a surprise.

All the five teams have played two games each and the picture is clearer now. Afghanistan faltered as a bowling unit against New Zealand before suffering a heartbreak in a double Super Over against the Proteas. New Zealand and South Africa have won both their matches and sit comfortably on four points each. The Black Caps lead the table with a Net Run Rate (NRR) of +1.919, while South Africa are close behind at +1.425. UAE have two points from two games, while Canada are yet to open their account.

ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 – Group D Standings

Qualification Scenario for New Zealand & South Africa

Both teams control their fate. One more win from their remaining two games should be enough to seal a Super 8 berth. If their head-to-head clash on February 14 produces a winner, that team will move to six points and virtually confirm qualification. South Africa’s other is against the UAE, which is expected to see the Proteas as victors. The Kiwis, meanwhile, will face Canada on Feb 17. Both NZ and SA are set to qualify for Super 8 unless we see a massive upset by either UAE or Canada.

Qualification Scenario for Afghanistan

Afghanistan are not out yet but they are hanging by a thread. Rashid Khan’s side must win both their remaining matches against UAE (Feb 16) and Canada (Feb 19), and by convincing margins to repair their NRR. Even then, they need either New Zealand or South Africa to lose both of their remaining games. So basically, if New Zealand lose on Feb 14, Afghanistan would want Canada to beat NZ again.

If that happens, Afghanistan can finish on four points alongside one of the big two. Qualification would then come down to Net Run Rate.

Qualification scenario for UAE

UAE are on two points from two matches with an NRR of -1.030. They have two games left — against Afghanistan (Feb 16) and South Africa (Feb 18). Two tough fixtures but if they play well, UAE have an outside chance. The simplest route? Win both games. If UAE beat Afghanistan and then upset South Africa, they will move to six points. Six guarantees qualification, no matter what happens elsewhere.

If the UAE beat Afghanistan but lose to South Africa, they finish on four points. In that case, things get complicated. Then, everything will be dependent on the NRR.

ICC Men’s T20 World Cup 2026 – Group D Matches

T20 World Cup Super 8 qualification scenario, Group D: South Africa, New Zealand clear favourites Inside Sport India.

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