Donald Trump has ordered a second aircraft carrier to prepare to sail to the Middle East, officials have said, expanding the US President’s options for a major military attack on Iran.
The Pentagon has told the carrier strike group to prepare to deploy within a fortnight although the final decision has not been taken, the Wall Street Journal reported, citing government sources.
The ship would probably deploy from the east coast of the US, according to the report, where the USS George HW Bush is conducting exercises.
The 97,000-tonne carrier is equipped to carry dozens of fighter aircraft, which would substantially strengthen the ongoing US military buildup around Iran.
Trump has already sent what he called an “armada” to the region including the USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier, and said this week that he could send a second.
Trump said on Wednesday that his preference was for a deal with Iran, centred on Tehran’s nuclear programme, instead of military action. But if there is no deal “we will just have to see what the outcome will be”, he added, referring to the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites last year.
If USS George HW Bush does depart in two weeks, the ship could be in position by mid-March, military news outlet The War Zone estimated.
Military specialists believe the carrier could give Trump more options than he currently possesses.
Key features of the USS George HW BushThis bombing campaign could be bigger
Many military experts believe the US does not yet have sufficient assets in the region for a large-scale, sustained campaign against Iran.
A second carrier could change the picture to some extent, suggested Ken Katzman, a former CIA Iran specialist now at the Soufan Center think-tank.
“More aircraft give you a chance to destroy more missile positions, because ultimately that’s what you are looking at – a race between the US trying to destroy these missiles and Iran firing back,” he said.
“The quicker you can destroy these missiles, the less blowback you face, and Iran has less opportunity to expand [the conflict] into the region.”
“Bolstering the number of aircraft in theatre gives you the ability to conduct more sorties per day and strike more targets more quickly.”
The USS George HW Bush would also give the US military more independence because it could launch attacks from the sea rather than relying on using the airspace of regional allies that are wary of involvement, said Katzman.
Nick Childs, Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and Maritime Security at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the additional carrier and accompanying escort ships “would bring significant additional firepower for any initial strike”.
“Equally, as the carriers can operate independently, a second carrier could provide added flexibility to deal with other threats, for example if the Houthis decide to take a hand again.
“Conversely, a carrier cannot maintain constant operations indefinitely. They need cycles of operation and recovery, as well as having to replenish ammunition, stores and aviation fuel at some point…Having two in tandem allows you to maintain sustained operations for much longer.”
Colonel Mark Cancian, a former Marine and now a defence analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested the carrier could play a defensive role.
“I think its biggest contribution would be for defence,” he said. “Carriers have tremendous offensive capability but the US already has a lot of that; it can conduct long-range missile strikes. But allies have been very nervous about retaliation.”
“With two carriers we could protect them more effectively. I think the new one may end up in the eastern Mediterranean, mostly to protect Israel, whereas the Lincoln will probably stay in the Indian Ocean to protect Gulf partners.”
US boosts military presence in Middle East against Iran (Photo: Getty/Anadolu)Blockading Iran
Trump has made use of blockade tactics in the Caribbean against Venezuela and Cuba, and is reportedly considering seizing Iranian oil tankers to choke off the regime’s most important source of revenue.
A second carrier could play a part in blocking oil experts, said Katzman, suggesting that US naval assets around Iran were now “comparable” to the buildup around Venezuela.
“It would be an incremental escalation to start seizing or blocking oil. They might respond militarily, which could provide a justification to strike them.”
“You can start slowly and ratchet it up until it becomes a blockade. [US forces are] maybe a little smaller in the Gulf [than the Caribbean] but you can add ships any time.”
Colonel Cancian said a second carrier could help to enforce a blockade of Iran’s disguised “ghost tankers” .
“[The US] would still need more ships,” he said. “But the tankers all have to come out through the Strait of Hormuz. We can watch what goes through there and intercept them.”
Gunboat diplomacy
The choreographed deployment of US forces to the region is also likely to be intended to increase diplomatic pressure on Tehran to meet US demands on its nuclear programme, missiles and other issues, Colonel Cancian said.
“I think there’s a lot of that,” he said. “Trump keeps talking about the armada he’s building. We saw that [approach] in the Caribbean too and we’re seeing that here.”
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Childs suggested that intimidation was part of the value of the deployment.
“There are a variety of options sending another carrier could offer, including just for sabre-rattling purposes to concentrate minds in Tehran. That is part of the flexibility and signalling that carrier deployments can bring,” he said.
Katzman agrees. “There is definitely a psychological warfare dimension to this. [Trump] is looking at options to put pressure on the regime and to get their attention.”
But the regime has shown it is willing to absorb pain and it has not been intimidated by US shows of force so far, he added.
“I think the only way to really scare them into a major compromise would be to put ground troops around Iran,” the analyst said.
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