A couple weeks ago, we discussed the release of the very-early projected ZiPS standings for the 2026 MLB season. It’s a way to translate a projection system for players into league-wide results, which is absolutely interesting stuff, but is also not the kind of thing you lock down as a certainty. It’s all probability bands, to so speak, even among the most accurate systems.
The median outcome there in the early ZiPS had the Chicago Cubs winning the NL Central in 2026, but only by about a game over the Milwaukee Brewers. As far as the rosters looked at the time and the on-paper evaluation went, that felt about right. Projection systems at the median are basically always going to look conservative, so 87 wins for the Cubs and 86 wins for the Brewers was far from outrageous.
Now we have the initial PECOTA standings projection from Baseball Prospectus to consider and, while I won’t call them outrageous, it will be immediately apparent to you how different they are from ZiPS:
OH MY. That’s three more wins for the Cubs, and six FEWER for the Brewers, compared to ZiPS. Combine them, and you have the Cubs absolutely running away with the NL Central by 10.0 games. Heck, the Brewers barely surpass the Pirates and Reds in this model.
I know enough by now – we all do – not to presume the on-paper Brewers will show up when the bell rings. They tend to find ways to outperform the models and even their own underlying metrics, somehow. I’d be very surprised if the Brewers actually wound up winning only 80 games this year, absent a rash of deeply unexpected issues in the first half and then a big sell-off in July that impacts game results in August and September.
As for the Cubs, those 90 wins would be the third most in the National League, and they are actually only about a half of a win behind the Braves for the second spot in the NL (which, if it happened, would come with the all-important first round bye). The Dodgers project at 104 wins, which, good gravy. The Mariners are the class of the AL at 94 wins, with every single AL East club between 81 and 88 wins, and the Royals atop the AL Central at just 85 wins (surely the Tigers will win more than 84 games, right?).
It’s worth checking out the standings projections here at BP to see how they’re evaluating the many other clubs and divisional races.
You can also see the win total probability distributions from the simulations used to create the median standings. It gives you an even better sense of, for example, how much better the Cubs are considered than the other NL Central teams:
One way to consider those lumps is that the Cubs, in order to lose the division, would have to significantly underperform PECOTA’s expectations at the same time as another NL Central team significantly overperforms PECOTA’s expectations. This is seriously an enormous blowout on paper, of the type we don’t usually see in the NL Central in these systems.
I choose not to take too much away from it, even as I do recognize the Cubs are a very strong-looking club this year. Ultimate outcomes can disappoint. We know this. But acknowledging that possibility shouldn’t prevent us from taking a clear-eyed look at this group and saying, “Yeah, this is pretty clearly one of the best four or five on-paper teams in the NL. Maybe even better.” That’s certainly what PECOTA is saying.
Hence then, the article about the initial pecota standings have the chicago cubs running away with the nl central was published today ( ) and is available on Bleacher Nation ( Middle East ) The editorial team at PressBee has edited and verified it, and it may have been modified, fully republished, or quoted. You can read and follow the updates of this news or article from its original source.
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