‘Hatred will explode’: How a dying warlord could empower Putin’s enemies ...Middle East

The death of the notorious Chechen warlord Ramzan Kadyrov could spark an explosion of violence and chaos across southern Russia that threatens Vladimir Putin himself, according to regional experts and officials.

Kadyrov, 49, a close Putin ally who rules the small Chechen Republic in Russia’s south-west, is said to be in declining health with chronic kidney and pancreatic conditions.

The strongman leader “barely” survived hospitalisation over Christmas, according to the independent Russian outlet Novaya Gazeta. Another Russian outlet, Cheka, said Kadyrov was “experiencing severe pain, requiring strong medications and having difficulty moving”.

A Ukrainian intelligence source described his condition with a phrase that roughly translates to “at death’s door”. Footage from recent public appearances show the Chechen leader appearing frail, slurring words, and using a cane to walk.

Kadyrov has dismissed past questions over his health, posting clips showing himself in the gym in response. But recent comments appeared to show him contemplating death. “I don’t want to live to old age,” he said. “I want to leave this life loved and respected by everyone.”

Chechnya's Ramzan Kadyrov– heavily slurring, maybe more than usual — makes an appearance today at the Kremlin, where the UAE president is meeting Putin and other Russian officials. pic.twitter.com/RFQlHCPSBK

Kadyrov, a flamboyant leader known for his love of MMA fighting and lavish parties as well as numerous human rights abuse allegations under his totalitarian rule, has remained one of Putin’s closest provincial allies over his two decades in power. He was installed as president by Putin in 2007 during the second Chechen war, when the Russian army brutally put down a pro-independence uprising.

The two men forged a mutually beneficial alliance based on an offer from Putin, said James Nixey, former head of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at the Chatham House think-tank in London.

“There was a deal: I’ll rebuild Chechnya – that Moscow wrecked – and keep you [Kadyrov] in position and flush with cash. In return, I need your loyalty and your ruthlessness in suppressing Chechen separatist sentiment,” said Nixey.

Kadyrov’s reign has been marked by killings and disappearances of rivals, and there have been no major uprisings to trouble the Kremlin. The Chechen leader has instead made a show of loyalty to the Kremlin and the war in Ukraine, sending soldiers to fight on Russia’s behalf.

Kadyrov’s death could prompt ‘explosion of hatred’

Were Kadyrov to die, however, the brutal regime he has held together could fracture, causing an explosion of violence across Chechnya.

His death could lead to a revival of suppressed groups in one of the “most problematic regions of Russia to govern”, suggested Abbas Gallyamov, a former Putin aide.

“For many years, Kadyrov was oppressing all the other Chechen social groups with the exception of his own, and he created a serious degree of hatred,” he told The i Paper. “Nobody can rule out that this hatred will explode after his death.”

There is also a risk of a violent, chaotic split within the sprawling Kadyrov clan over succession, Gallyamov added.

“Different groups might decide that the chosen successor is not the best option. And they might try to play their own game,” he said. “Taking into account the ways they are accustomed to, there could be shootings, explosions and killing.”

A series of promotions for the youngest of Kadyrov’s sons, Adam, appeared to mark him out as the most likely successor. But the 18-year-old was injured in a recent car accident, with some reports suggesting he was left on a life support machine, which could force a change.

The Chechen constitution also requires a leader to be at least 30, raising questions over a possible regency to govern in the interim before any of Kadyrov’s sons could take charge.

This could be led by trusted elders of the Kadyrov clan, said Anton Barbashin, editor of Russian political analysis journal Ridl, suggesting some details might have been agreed in advance with the Kremlin.

“Kadyrov has been dying for a while now. Things were prepared for the day,” he said. But any successor was likely to be weaker, Barbashin added.

Why Putin should fear a power vacuum

Kadyrov’s influence is felt beyond Chechnya in the wider North Caucasus region, according to Max Hess, an author and scholar focused on Eurasia, and the leader’s death could create opportunities for insurgent groups across the vast territory.

“I would say a power vacuum in Chechnya is very dangerous for Putin because of the wider potential for movements to emerge in the North Caucasus and Kadyrov is the glue keeping them from doing so thus far,” he said.

“The North Caucasus is full of people who have various resentments against both the federal centre in Moscow and… the increasing Russification of their own regions,” Hess added, citing a recent case of soldiers from North Ossetia, a southern Russian republic bordering Georgia, who refused to fight in Ukraine.

Kadyrov’s Chechen forces have often been active in neighbouring regions putting down protest movements and rival factions, said Hess, which could now gain ground if Moscow lost its main “local enforcer”.

Unrest in the region could benefit Ukraine by stretching the Kremlin’s resources at a time much of its military manpower and resources are deployed in Ukraine, suggested the Ukrainian MP Oleksii Goncharenko.

“I think we could expect several scenarios,” he told The i Paper. “The first is that his inner circle could turn on each other, leading to a real struggle – even a war – for power. The second is that Moscow could brutally suppress any unrest.”

Either could relieve pressure on the front lines of Ukraine, where Russian forces continue to make slow and costly gains. Goncharenko said Kyiv stood ready to offer support for insurgent or pro-independence movements in Chechnya in the aftermath of Kadyrov’s death.

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Ukraine already has anti-Kremlin Chechen soldiers fighting in its ranks, he claimed.

Gallyamov agreed that Ukraine could benefit from an uprising in Chechnya. “Russia doesn’t have troops – they are all in Ukraine. And they struggled to beat the Chechens even when there was no Ukraine war,” he said.

Ukraine and its allies could also fuel a crisis “by provoking oppressed groups in Chechnya to become bold and vocal, to show their displeasure, to demand free elections and an end to oppression,” he added. “This would be very popular.”

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