With Spring Training set to begin in just a couple of weeks, three-time batting champion Luis Arraez continues to linger on the market. Having played out his final arbitration year with the Padres, Arraez always figured to be an interesting case in free agency. His high contact and low strikeout rates earn him plenty of old-school fans. On the flip side, his lack of power, low walk rates, and defensive limitations make his value questionable from an analytics standpoint.
The rumor mill has been extremely quiet on Arraez outside of the Padres’ reported interest in a reunion back in November. Early last week, 75.17% of MLBTR readers predicted that he would settle for a one-year deal rather than hold out for a multi-year pact. Now, Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reports that Arraez is weighing one-year and multi-year offers from clubs, with a priority of returning to playing second base.
The 28-year-old has played at every infield spot since debuting with the Twins in 2019. Second and first base account for the overwhelming majority of those innings. Defensive metrics have been largely negative on his glove at second. In 2,793 defensive innings there, Arraez has been worth -6 Defensive Runs Saved and -35 Outs Above Average. His most recent year as a regular second baseman was 2023 with the Marlins. In 1,124 innings that year, he was worth 4 DRS but -11 OAA. His glovework at the keystone was last seen positively by both metrics in 2022 (3 DRS and 1 OAA), but that was in just 277 2/3 innings.
Statcast considers Arraez’s range and arm strength well-below-average, both of which limit his value. Perhaps recognizing that, the Padres shifted him to first base after acquiring him in May 2024. From 2024-25 with San Diego, Arraez played 1,517 2/3 innings at first base compared to just 140 innings at the keystone. That move didn’t necessarily improve his defensive value. DRS painted him as an average first baseman in that span (0 DRS), while OAA remained negative in their outlook (-11 OAA). His -6 OAA in 2025 tied with the Athletics’ Nick Kurtz for third-worst among qualified first basemen.
From that track record, it’s not unreasonable that teams might want to limit his time in the field. Of course, that raises the issue of whether Arraez’s offense is enough for a full-time DH role. In 2025, designated hitters posted a 110 wRC+ with a .188 isolated power output. Arraez’s 107 wRC+ since the start of 2024 is comparable to that, but his .089 ISO is less than half the usual mark for the position. Feinsand’s post doesn’t specify the interested teams or the terms of their offers, so it’s still not clear how the market values Arraez overall. In any case, the fact that he is prioritizing a return to second base could limit his earning power, especially on a multi-year deal.
The one-year route may be his best option. Arraez turns 29 in April and has several prime years remaining, so if he performs well in 2026, he could return to the market still young enough for a multi-year deal. He’ll never become a Gold Glover, but a pillow contract could at least allow him to improving his offense relative to his walk year this time around. His .292/.327/.392 slash line in 2025 amounted to a 104 wRC+. Though above-average, it was underwhelming production at first base, a position with 9% better-than-average offense by wRC+ this year. In contrast, second basemen were 10% below average as hitters, though with much better defense than first basemen.
From that lens, the question is which version of Arraez the market values more. He doesn’t hit as well as the average first baseman, but poor defense isn’t unusual for that position anyway. As a second baseman, Arraez’s offense plays up, but his defense becomes a much bigger liability. He has reportedly been working on his defense at second base during the offseason (link via Daniel Alvarez-Montes of El Extrabase), though it remains to be seen how much that matters to the teams alluded to by Feinsand.
Photo courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea, Imagn Images
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