Trump’s right – China has made a fool of Starmer ...Middle East

As trips go, a visit by a British prime minister to China is a high-wire act. They are quizzed on when and what did they said about human rights (in this case if there would be any reprieve for Jimmy Lai, the British citizen languishing in a Hong Kong cell – spoiler alert – no, there won’t be), or Beijing’s bellicosity against Taiwan – a country vital to global prosperity. And of course, the reason any leader visits in the first place – what trade deals of any worth did they actually get.

Keir Starmer is no doubt breathing a sigh of relief. For all the fanfare, the encounter – with President Xi Jinping staged against the grandeur of the Great Hall of the People – passed without surprise or incident. Foreign Office mandarins are likely congratulating themselves on securing a full hour of Xi’s time, up from a derisory 40-minute slot. For a Prime Minister who has made a career out of platitudes over policy, Xi’s vague entreaty to “rise above differences” would have been music to Starmer’s ears.

But look a little closer and Starmer has very little to show for his efforts. While a few of Starmer’s 60-strong business entourage may return with some modest deals, the cold reality remains: Beijing does not yield to those it views as mere supplicants.

In a typically random intervention overnight, Donald Trump told the world it was “very dangerous” for the UK to do business with China. This, despite the fact Trump himself is going to Beijing in a matter of weeks. For Britain to be taken seriously by the world’s strongmen – whether in Beijing or Washington – it will need to start investing in its own leverage.

This is, of course, on one level, about military power. If the UK and its European allies could better service their defence needs in their own back yard, it wouldn’t be so dependent on a capricious US. Similarly, if the UK had a stronger naval presence than two paltry patrol ships in the Indo-Pacific, it could play a far more meaningful role in allied deterrence over Taiwan. The urgency of investing in Britain’s own military and industrial capabilities could not be clearer.

However, defending Britain’s interests is also about soft power. Not soft power in the woolly cultural sense – as if Premier League football and the Harry Potter franchise could make Xi and Vladimir Putin think twice – but soft power through strategic partnerships built through presence, partnership and sustained engagement. This is particularly true in developing countries where relationships forged through development, education, health and infrastructure endure for decades. When those relationships weaken, influence does not simply fade. It is transferred.

The UK’s announcement last year that it would be cutting its aid budget by the largest amount in a generation threatens to hollow out the very programmes and partnerships that underpin Britain’s soft power, eroding its global influence and undermining the credibility of its commitments abroad. In the US, the shift has been even more stark. This month marks the anniversary of Trump’s dismantling of USAid – a move not only with devastating humanitarian consequences, but also one that sent US influence in the developing world into freefall.

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China is doing the opposite. Rather than being drawn into a false choice between hard and soft power, it is investing in both. Alongside ramping up production of stealth fighter jets, it is also pledging $51bn (£37bn) over three years in loans and traditional aid to the African continent. While Westminster dithers over whether development spending is affordable or politically defensible, China is quietly getting on with it – investing at scale, with fewer conditions and often on timelines longer than any elected government can dream of.

This has direct strategic implications for Britain’s influence. Countries that benefit from Chinese finance are far more likely to support Beijing’s positions on international issues. Take China’s efforts to build global coalitions against Taiwan, for example. Together, the 87 countries which have publicly stated support for Beijing’s so-called reunification efforts received over 63 per cent of China’s development finance. Many have even lined up to defend China’s abysmal record at the UN Human Rights Council. The next time a global crisis emerges – whether over Taiwan, AI safety or critical minerals – the UK could well find itself among a shrinking minority – with or without the US on its side.

At a time when the US is haemorrhaging global support, the UK’s role as one of the great powers of democracy is more important than ever. Starmer might enjoy his jolly in Beijing, but the real work begins back at home.

Investing in the UK’s leverage – both hard and soft power – is the only way to be taken seriously on the world stage.

Andrew Yeh is executive director, China Strategic Risks Institute, Taipei

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