Following the conclusion of the league phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League, we revisit the Opta supercomputer projections to try to figure out who will lift the trophy in Budapest in May.
The second annual league phase of the UEFA Champions League has concluded. A total of 144 games were played, 487 goals scored, eight teams safely into the last 16, 12 eliminated, and another 16 waiting to discover their fate in the knockout play-offs.
And all anyone can talk about is that a goalkeeper scored with the last kick (or header) on Matchday 8. Never change, football. Never change.
Anatoliy Trubin’s dramatic header at the death for Benfica snuck José Mourinho’s side into the top 24, eliminating Marseille, while also confirming Real Madrid would have to settle for a play-off place again.
Arsenal also sealed top spot in the final round of games, with their 3-2 win over Kairat ensuring they became the first team to have a 100% record through the league phase of the Champions League, while fellow Premier League sides Liverpool, Tottenham, Chelsea and Manchester City also finished in the top eight.
Bayern Munich, Barcelona and Sporting CP joined them, while along with Real Madrid and Newcastle United, both of last season’s finalists, Paris Saint-Germain and Inter, had to make do with a play-off spot.
With the league phase done and dusted, it’s time to switch on the Opta supercomputer and see what all of that football did to the projection numbers for the rest of this season’s competition.
Who Will Win the Champions League in 2025-26?
Before the league phase kicked off, Liverpool were the favourites according to the Opta supercomputer. Arne Slot’s side had made a perfect start in the Premier League and were top of the Opta Power Rankings; they went on to win the Champions League in 20.4% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations.
However, despite finishing a very respectable third in the league phase following a 6-0 thrashing of Qarabag in their final game, the Reds are no longer favourites. That is largely due to their poor form in the league, which has seen them also slide down the Power Rankings. They won the Champions League in 8.9% of the latest simulations, making them fourth favourites.
Arsenal were second favourites at the start of the season (16%), but the impressive form of Mikel Arteta’s men in winning all eight of their league phase games, as well as leading the Premier League, means they are now favourites to go all the way in Europe’s premier club competition.
The Gunners lifted the famous trophy for the first time in their history in 29.8% of sims, and reached the final in almost half (47.1%).
Last year’s winners, PSG, went into the campaign as third favourites (12.1%), and some might have thought that was a bit stingy given how brilliant Luis Enrique’s side were as they won their first Champions League crown in 2024-25.
However, for a second season in a row, PSG made a bit of a mess of the league phase and once again must go through the play-offs to reach the last 16. As a result, their chances of retaining their European title are down to just 5.1% now, making them only seventh favourites.
Bayern Munich weren’t particularly fancied back in early September, winning the UCL in just 4.3% of sims (eighth favourites), but Vincent Kompany’s men finished second in the league phase, and now go all the way in more sims than everyone except Arsenal (14.9%).
Manchester City only just made it into the top eight. Their 2-0 win over Galatasaray on MD8 was enough thanks to results elsewhere going their way, and their chances haven’t changed all that much.
Pep Guardiola’s side were fourth favourites in September (8.4%) and are now up to third (10.5%). The fact they are likely to play either Real Madrid or Inter in the last 16 probably didn’t help their chances in the eyes of the supercomputer, though.
Speaking of whom, Real Madrid were left heartbroken by two Lisbon-based teams on Wednesday, losing 4-2 at Benfica while Sporting CP won 3-2 at Athletic Club, meaning Los Blancos finished outside the top eight for a second consecutive season.
As fate would have it, Álvaro Arbeloa’s team have a 50/50 chance of being drawn against Benfica again in the play-offs, and made it through to the last 16 in 65.8% of sims.
Despite winning far more European Cup/Champions League titles than anyone else (15), Madrid were not fancied at the start of the season (5.8%), and are even less so now (1.9%). An astonishing 11 teams have a better chance, according to the supercomputer.
Inter reached the final last year but probably won’t want to talk too much about how that went. The Nerazzurri were in a great position this season too after winning their first four league phase games, but three losses in a row put them in danger of missing out on automatic qualification for the last 16. Sure enough, their win at Borussia Dortmund on MD8 wasn’t enough, and like Madrid, they must go through the play-offs.
Cristian Chivu’s side only won the UCL in 3% of sims at the start of the season, and that has only dipped slightly now to just 2.7%.
Chelsea looked in trouble when they trailed Napoli 2-1 on MD8 but managed to turn things around to win 3-2 in Naples and seal a top-eight berth. Liam Rosenior has made an excellent start to life at Stamford Bridge, and his new team won a third Champions League title in 7.5% of simulations.
Barcelona fans may have been panicking a tad at half-time on Wednesday, with the Catalan giants trailing 1-0 at home to Copenhagen. However, Hansi Flick’s side eventually ran out 4-1 winners at Camp Nou, securing a top-eight finish.
Their chances of winning the Champions League have gone down slightly since the start of the season, from 8.4% to 7%, but remember, these numbers will change again once the draw for the last 16, and the remainder of the knockout stages, has been made next month.
Newcastle United earned a very respectable draw at PSG on MD8, but sadly for them, it wasn’t enough for the top eight. That said, the Opta supercomputer gives them a very strong chance of making the last 16. They will play either Monaco or Qarabag in the play-offs, and overcame either one in 85.9% of simulations. That will likely go down if they are drawn against Monaco on Friday, but they will still be big favourites.
As for the competition as a whole, Newcastle went all the way and won the Champions League 3.2% of the time, marginally up from their 3% chance at the start of the season, and interestingly, more often than both Inter and Real Madrid.
Tottenham may be struggling in the Premier League, but they breezed through their Champions League duties, finishing fourth after a 2-0 win at Eintracht Frankfurt on MD8.
Spurs won the Europa League last season despite their poor league form, and they repeated the trick of winning a European trophy this time around in 2.3% of sims, more than double their chances back in September (1.1%).
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Champions League Predictions 2025-26: The Opta Supercomputer Projections After the League Phase Opta Analyst.
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