We look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League game at the Etihad Stadium with our Man City vs Galatasaray prediction and preview.
Man City vs Galatasaray: The Key Stats
Manchester City came up with the goods to earn all three points against Galatasaray in 74.1% of the Opta supercomputer’s 10,000 simulations of this match. Galatasaray manager Okan Buruk won three of his five previous UEFA Champions League games against English opposition. Man City striker Erling Haaland has scored 35 goals in just 27 home appearances in the UEFA Champions League.Manchester City could have all but secured their place in the UEFA Champions League round of 16 with victory away to Bodø/Glimt last week, but a dismal display in Norway means automatic progression to the next round is now largely out of their hands.
Pep Guardiola’s side, currently placed 11th in the competition’s league phase table, will host Galatasaray at the Etihad Stadium on Wednesday; not only will they likely have to defeat the Turkish giants to finish inside the top eight, but they will also need a few favours from other teams.
Handily, Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle, who are sixth and seventh respectively, face each other in Paris, and Man City will be hoping for a draw.
Chelsea, in eighth, have a tough fixture away to Serie A’s reigning champions, Napoli.
Directly above Man City are ninth-placed Barcelona and 10th-placed Sporting CP; Barça have a well-timed home meeting with FC København, while Sporting will have work to do at San Mamés against Athletic Club.
With all of this and more in mind, the Opta supercomputer regards Man City as having a 61.2% chance of finishing inside the top eight, which may well be higher than some had envisioned after last week’s shock result.
Galatasaray are not to be taken lightly; they have won the Turkish Süper Lig in three consecutive seasons, and they are on course to do so again this year.
They have a host of familiar faces in their squad, but none more so than İlkay Gündoğan and Leroy Sané, who made a combined 493 appearances for Man City.
Galatasaray’s biggest threat, though, is likely to come from Victor Osimhen. The Nigerian scored his 50th goal for the club on Saturday, in what was his 59th appearance. He has scored six goals from five Champions League outings this season, which is third only to Kylian Mbappé (11) and Harry Kane (7).
He is expected to be a huge danger on the counter-attack in this match, and this is a clear area of weakness for Man City; all three of the goals they conceded against Bodø/Glimt last week came from fast breaks, while since the start of last season, they have faced the most shots following fast breaks of any team in the UEFA Champions League (25).
Galatasaray manager, Okan Buruk, has a strong record against English opposition. He has won three of his five previous UEFA Champions League games against English teams, including an away win with Galatasaray against Manchester United in October 2023; he also led Istanbul Basaksehir to victory over the Red Devils in November 2020, and Galatasaray to a 1-0 win over Liverpool in this season’s league phase.
Man City have lost two of their last three UEFA Champions League games, having only lost three of their prior 24 league phase or group stage matches in the competition.
They lost 2-0 to Bayer Leverkusen in their most recent such home game but have never lost back-to-back group/league phase games at the Etihad Stadium in the competition.
Man City have struggled in 2026, but they got back to winning ways at the weekend with a 2-0 victory at home to Wolverhampton Wanderers. Still, it wasn’t an entirely one-sided match, and Galatasaray will be expected to provide a tougher challenge.
January signings Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi were among Man City’s top performers against Wolves, but neither will be available for selection in this match.
Erling Haaland and Phil Foden were provided with rare opportunities for rest at the weekend, but both still came on for the second half.
Matheus Nunes returned from illness against Wolves, but Savinho, John Stones, Josko Gvardiol, Ruben Dias, Mateo Kovacic, Oscar Bobb and Nico Gonzalez will all be unavailable due to injury, while Rodri is suspended.
Man City vs Galatasaray Head-to-Head
This will be the first meeting between Man City and Galatasaray, as well as Pep Guardiola’s first ever game against the Turkish side.
The last English team to beat Galatasaray in the UEFA Champions League were Arsenal in December 2014 – since then, the Turkish side are unbeaten in three meetings with English opponents in the competition, including a win over Liverpool earlier this season in the most recent one.
Man City’s only previous meetings with a Turkish side came 57 years ago in the 1968-69 European Cup, when they were eliminated by Fenerbahçe in the first round.
Man City vs Galatasaray Prediction
The Opta supercomputer regards Man City as strong favourites to win this match, coming out on top in 74.1% of simulations.
A draw was the second most common result, occurring in 14.8% of sims, while Galatasaray were victorious in the remaining 11.1%.
Man City vs Galatasaray Predicted Lineups
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Max Alleyne, Nico O’Reilly, Rico Lewis, Bernardo Silva, Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, Phil Foden, Erling Haaland.
Head coach: Pep Guardiola
Galatasaray: Uğurcan Çakır, Roland Sallai, Abdülkerim Bardakci, Davinson Sánchez, Eren Elmali, Lucas Torreira, Mario Lemina, Leroy Sané, Yunus Akgün, Burak Yilmaz, Victor Osimhen.
Head coach: Okan Buruk
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Man City vs Galatasaray Prediction: Pep Guardiola’s Side Have Work to Do to Avoid Play-Offs Opta Analyst.
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