Look ahead to Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League clash in Paris with our PSG vs Newcastle prediction and preview. There’s plenty at stake on the final league-phase matchday.
PSG vs Newcastle: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer makes European champions Paris Saint-Germain the favourites, with a 61.4% win probability. Since the 2013-14 season, PSG have hosted an English side on 16 occasions in the UEFA Champions League (W8 D4 L4) – those matches have seen a total of 54 goals scored (31 for, 23 against). This will be Newcastle’s 10th away game against a French side in Europe. They have only won one of their previous nine such matches.The new UEFA Champions League format was roundly criticised when it was introduced, with fans and pundits alike questioning if it would result in a lack of jeopardy.
But heading into the final round of the 2025-26 league phase, there is still plenty on the line.
Reigning European champions Paris Saint-Germain did not finish in the top eight last season, meaning they had to go through the play-offs to claim the trophy for the first time in their history.
Those extra two matches can prove a real strain, as Manchester City found out when they were drawn against Real Madrid, so securing a path straight through to the last 16 is certainly beneficial.
PSG, though, head into Wednesday’s visit of Newcastle United with their fate still in the balance, following last week’s defeat to Sporting CP.
Luis Enrique’s team sit sixth in the standings on 13 points. Newcastle, meanwhile, are seventh, only behind PSG on goals scored. A win would see either of these teams through to the last 16, while a draw may be enough, depending on results elsewhere, though it is unlikely that both teams will finish in the top eight. One side will almost certainly need to go through the play-offs next month.
PSG recovered from their loss to Sporting by bouncing back in Ligue 1 with a 1-0 win at Auxerre thanks to Bradley Barcola‘s goal. With Lens losing to Marseille on Saturday, it meant the champions returned to the top of the French top-flight table.
Inconsistency continues to plague Newcastle, though. After beating PSV 3-0 last week to give themselves a real chance of qualifying directly for the last 16, they then had the opportunity to go into the top six in the Premier League.
However, Eddie Howe’s team slumped to a 2-0 home defeat to Aston Villa, ending a four-game unbeaten run in the league. It was the Villans’ first Premier League win at St. James’ Park for 21 years.
Newcastle failed to score despite generating chances worth 2.3 expected goals, which is their highest xG output without finding the net in a Premier League game since a 0-0 draw with Crystal Palace in September 2022 (2.8).
While Newcastle failed to find that clinical touch in attack, they were also shorn of their best player, captain and key midfielder Bruno Guimarães. The Brazil international sustained an ankle injury in the win over PSV, and he remains a doubt to feature at the Parc des Princes.
Howe could also be without Guimarães’ compatriot Joelinton, who sustained an injury early in the second half against Villa.
Regardless of the fitness of that duo, there is certain to be plenty of onus on Newcastle’s defence, up against one of Europe’s best attacking teams.
No team have scored more Champions League goals this season than PSG (20, level with Arsenal and Bayern Munich). However, Newcastle have kept four clean sheets, which trails only the Gunners and Tottenham Hotspur. Only Arsenal (5.0) and Liverpool (6.2), meanwhile, can boast a lower xG against figure than Newcastle’s impressive 6.5.
Newcastle cannot just rely on their defence to keep things tight, though, especially against the team who have registered the most shots (148) and shots on target (54) in the Champions League this term.
Yoane Wissa scored against PSV, while Harvey Barnes and Anthony Gordon were also on target, and all of that trio should feature.
Barnes has netted 12 goals in all competitions this season, his best-ever return in a single campaign for Newcastle and only eclipsed overall by 13 for Leicester City in 2020-21 and 2022-23.
Gordon, meanwhile, has been directly involved in eight Champions League goals this season (six goals, two assists). The last English player to record more for an English club in a single edition was Raheem Sterling for Manchester City in 2019-20 (nine – six goals, three assists).
While PSG are the favourites, their performances in this competition have dropped off lately.
Across their first five Champions League games this season, PSG scored 19 goals, converting 18.6% of their attempts (19/102). In their last two games, they have actually averaged more shots (23) than in their first five outings (20) but scored just once from 46 attempts (2.2% conversion).
But they still have world-class talent in abundance, and it does not take much for their star-studded forward line to click into top gear.
Since the start of 2025, Ousmane Dembélé has been involved in 15 goals in 15 Champions League appearances (nine goals, six assists). Then there’s Désiré Doué, who created seven chances against Sporting to become the youngest player (20 years, 231 days) Opta has on record (since 2003-04) to achieve that in a Champions League match.
Midfield maestro Vitinha is PSG’s leading scorer in the competition this term, with four goals, ahead of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia (three). Achraf Hakimi leads the way for assists (three), while Barcola has created a team-leading 19 chances. Luis Enrique’s team have threats from everywhere.
PSG vs Newcastle Head-to-Head
PSG and Newcastle’s only previous meetings came in the 2023-24 Champions League group stage – they drew their meeting at the Parc des Princes (1-1), after Howe’s side had won 4-1 in the first game at St. James’ Park.
This will be Newcastle’s 10th away game against a French side in Europe; they have only managed one victory from the previous nine (D3 L5): 4-0 v Sochaux in the UEFA Cup in November 2004.
Since the 2013-14 season, PSG have hosted an English side on 16 occasions in the Champions League (W8 D4 L4) – those matches have seen a total of 54 goals scored (31 for, 23 against), at an average of 3.4 per game, and both teams have scored at least once in 14 of the 16 fixtures.
PSG vs Newcastle Prediction
The Opta supercomputer has run 10,000 data-led simulations, and PSG have come out as the favourites, with a 61.4% win probability.
There is a 19.8% chance of a draw, with Newcastle given an 18.8% likelihood of taking the three points.
Opta’s predictive model hands PSG a 62.3% chance of reaching the last 16, while Newcastle’s probability is 21.1%, with a 78.9% likelihood of the Magpies having to go through the play-offs.
PSG vs Newcastle Predicted Lineups
PSG: Lucas Chevalier, Warren Zaïre-Emery, Marquinhos, Willian Pacho, Nuno Mendes, Ibrahim Mbaye, Vitinha, Senny Mayulu, Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Gonçalo Ramos, Bradley Barcola.
Head coach: Luis Enrique
Newcastle: Nick Pope, Kieran Trippier, Malick Thiaw, Sven Botman, Lewis Hall, Lewis Miley, Sandro Tonali, Jacob Ramsey, Harvey Barnes, Yoane Wissa, Anthony Gordon.
Manager: Eddie Howe
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 10,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday night, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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