Donald Trump’s presidency is spiralling into chaos, much as it did during his first White House term, but with far more dangerous consequences at home and abroad. The hope is that we will be rescued from Trump’s petulant imperiousness by Congress, the Supreme Court or US voters. Dream on.
Trump is shedding popularity at home. Future historians may identify the first anniversary of his second term in office on 20 January as the moment when the US President lost the plot. That this milestone should fall during the 250th year of American independence makes it all the sadder and more grim.
But it won’t mark the beginning of the end of Trump’s reign unless he can be stopped. He thinks he has a minimum of three more years to do as he pleases, notwithstanding the flurry of calls to invoke the 25th amendment on the grounds that he is “unfit” for office. They’re just hot air.
Let’s face it, Europe is not going to deploy its big bazooka in the form of trade retaliation against Trump over Greenland’s fate. Ukraine is going to be left to twist in the wind, now Trump realises he will never get his own Nobel Peace Prize. “I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace,” he told the Norwegian prime minister in a text on Sunday. The “Board of Peace” for Gaza is morphing into a cynical grab for money and power with Trump at its apex.
But Trump thinks he is unstoppable and no longer cares what anybody thinks. Not even Maga, the movement he created and believes he owns. For Trump, being feared is the same as being loved. He got what he wanted – a second term – and is now more fixated on legacy than the needs of the electorate.
Some former cheerleaders are peeling off. Joe Rogan, host of America’s biggest podcast and cultural bellwether, has described the behaviour of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) as “f***ing crazy” and asked: “Are we really going to be the Gestapo? ‘Where’s your papers?’ Is that what we’ve come to?”
Former “hardcore Maga” supporter Michael Levin recently wrote in The Hill that “Trump appears to be high on his own supply, unable to hear the real concerns of everyday Americans worried about pocketbook issues.”
The polls show growing dissatisfaction with Trump’s lack of focus on the economy. According to a CBS poll, 44 per cent of voters say his policies have made them financially “worse off” and 74 per cent that the administration’s focus on lowering prices is “not enough”.
By the same token, 54 per cent say his presidency makes them “uneasy”, 47 per cent feel “unsafe” and 54 per cent believe his policies “will decrease peace and stability in the world” – and all this before his latest threats to acquire Greenland.
For a real estate man like Trump, the ultimate legacy means acquiring territory, even if it makes no sense to anybody else. The libertarian rightwing senator Rand Paul told NBC News he had heard “no Republican support” for invading Greenland. “As far as trying to buy it peacefully,” Paul said on Sunday, “you don’t get purchasers to come around by berating them.”
It’s possible that the Supreme Court will attempt to curb Trump’s untrammelled power by ruling against his unilateral imposition of tariffs, but don’t hold your breath. Why should the conservative majority on the Supreme Court demonstrate more bottle than Congress, which has allowed Trump to trample on its power to “lay and collect taxes, duties, imposts and excises”?
US Vice-President JD Vance declared last year that Trump shouldn’t feel bound by verdicts he doesn’t like. “Judges aren’t allowed to control the executive branch’s legitimate power,” he posted on X.
Congress has the right to act more forcefully on foreign and domestic policy, but lacks the will. There was a salutary display of Trumpian brutality on Sunday when the President encouraged a primary challenge to Republican Senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana.
Cassidy, a doctor who supports science-based medicine and vaccines, was strong-armed into supporting Robert F Kennedy Jr’s nomination as Health Secretary last year. For this merest whiff of rebellion – before falling into line – Cassidy’s political career is being threatened.
As with Liz Cheney and Marjorie Taylor-Greene, Trump critics have a nasty habit of finding themselves out of office. Don’t expect other GOP lawmakers to find a spine.
Finally, there’s the prospect of slapping Trump down in the midterm elections in November. It would take a political earthquake for Democrats to take control of the Senate, given the composition of the seats in play. The House of Representatives is an easier prize, but Trump is planning to dispatch personally signed $2000 cheques to voters (paid for by tariff revenue) next autumn as what looks very much like a bribe.
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Even if Republicans lose control, Trump will keep signing executive orders and claiming fictional “emergencies” to rule by decree.
This is not a counsel of despair. Americans are kinder and less selfish than their President. It is important that Trump is seen to be acting contrary to their interests – because one day there will be a reckoning, and the US is going to have to dig itself out of this mess.
Sarah Baxter is director of the Marie Colvin Center for International Reporting
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