Which teams will make it through the league phase of the 2025-26 UEFA Champions League and into the knockouts? Well, you can find the Opta supercomputer’s Champions League predictions and points projections on this page.
The UEFA Champions League is back after a six-week break, with plenty still to be decided across the final two matchdays of the 2025-26 league phase.
Finishing in the top eight ensures immediate qualification for the last 16, while teams between ninth and 24th will contest the Champions League play-off round for the right to join the leading sides in the knockout stage.
Just like last season, there is no more Europa League safety net either – the bottom 12 from the 36 and the eight teams who lose in the play-off round will all be immediately eliminated from continental football for this season.
The Opta supercomputer can simulate the remainder of the 2025-26 UCL league phase 10,000 times to work out the projected points tallies of every team and their likelihood of making it through to the knockouts. Here are the latest results.
Top 8 – Automatic Qualification to the Knockouts
Arsenal sit pretty at the top of the league phase table, winning every point available from their first six games. With a maximum 18 points, they are now two games away from becoming the first side to win every league phase match in a season within the new format, after Liverpool fell just short last season, losing on Matchday 8 to PSV after winning their first seven games.
The Gunners have enjoyed an exceptional 2025-26 campaign, topping the Premier League table by seven points after 22 games to go along with their 100% success rate in the UCL.
Should they overcome Inter on MD7, Mikel Arteta will be massively confident of finishing top of the league phase with eight wins from eight, as they host Kazakh minnows Kairat in their final game. The Opta supercomputer is bullish on their chance of finishing top of the league too, giving the London club a 93.9% chance of doing so.
While it’s not mathematically impossible for them to fall out of the top eight if they suffer disastrous heavy defeats to both Inter and Kairat, the supercomputer didn’t see it happen in any of its most recent 10,000 simulations, with Arsenal progressing to the round of 16 in 100% of sims.
The battle to be among the seven teams to join them in the last 16 is far more intriguing, with Bayern Munich in pole position to progress alongside Arsenal.
The reigning Bundesliga champions have 15 points from their six games so far, giving them a two-point cushion over the chasing pack of Paris Saint-Germain, Manchester City and Atalanta. All four sides are guaranteed more European football after January, as they are assured of at least a spot in the play-offs, but they will all be hoping for automatic qualification to the round of 16.
While PSG (83.0%), Bayern (99.1%) and Man City (89.9%) are all given a greater-than 80% chance of finishing inside the top eight, Atalanta are less fancied (59.9%). Although the Serie A club have two opponents both currently outside the top 24 in Athletic Club and Union Saint-Gilloise, their opposition will be looking to sneak into the play-offs and could prove tricky.
Despite entering MD7 outside of the top eight places, Liverpool are the fifth-most likely side to finish between first and eighth according to the Opta supercomputer (63.4%). They face Marseille away on Wednesday before hosting Qarabağ on 28 January.
Barcelona are currently two points outside the top eight as things stand and will need to win at least one of their remaining matches – both very winnable games against Slavia Prague (A) and Copenhagen (H) – to stand a chance of finishing in the automatic last-16 qualification spots.
Record winners Real Madrid are currently seventh in the table but will be hoping to win their final two games – against Monaco (H) and Benfica (A) – to fend off a chasing pack of eight teams that are within two points of them.
Madrid currently have a 58.3% chance of making the top eight, while Barcelona failed to do so more often (51.3%) than they were successful (48.7%) in the Opta supercomputer sims.
9th to 24th – Qualification to the Knockout Play-Offs
Sixteen points was enough to secure a top-eight finish in the UCL league phase last season, but there is every chance that might not be the case this time around.
Teams as far down as Barcelona in 15th can still hit the 16-point mark with two matches left to play, and that points tally might only secure a play-off place in 2025-26.
The most likely teams to reach the play-off round are the five sides currently on nine points from six games: Marseille, Juventus, Galatasaray, Monaco and Bayer Leverkusen. Reaching the top eight now feels extremely unlikely, but so does failing to pick up enough points to finish inside the bottom 12 spots and therefore be eliminated.
Last season’s losing finalists Inter may still have to navigate the play-offs too, despite currently sitting in sixth place with two matchdays remaining. Their issue is that they face the current best team in the world (according to the Opta Power Rankings, at least), Arsenal, before a difficult away trip to Borussia Dortmund on MD8. That fixture could potentially be a winner-takes-all clash in the battle for the top eight.
25th to 36th – Elimination
It’s going to take a miracle for Kairat or Villarreal to continue their Champions League journey past the league phase in 2025-26.
Both sides have won just a single point from their six games so far. They’ll need to win both their final two matches and hope that a host of results go their way for that to happen.
The Opta supercomputer didn’t see Kairat finish in the play-off spots across any of its most recent 10,000 simulations.
Villarreal achieved an extremely unlikely play-off berth in 10 of the 10,000 sims, but they’ll have to beat both Ajax (H) and Bayer Leverkusen (A) and hope that the 13 teams above them in the table have disastrous finishes to the league phase campaign to stand any chance of performing one of the most extraordinary turnarounds in UCL history.
There is also little chance we’ll see Bodø/Glimt (1.5%), Ajax (2.4%) or Slavia Prague (2.6%) progress past the league phase, while Eintracht Frankfurt (17.9%) and Athletic Club (19.2%) are the other two teams with a less than 20% chance of progressing out of the league phase to the play-offs.
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Champions League Predictions: Opta Supercomputer’s 2025-26 League Phase Projections Opta Analyst.
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