There’s a cruel joke in Westminster: that every Tory defection to Reform raises the average IQ of both parties.
A bit harsh on Robert Jenrick, who is a proper scalp.
Kemi Badenoch emerges stronger from this week because of the way she brutally exposed, sacked and banished Jenrick. Her decisiveness has cut through with the wider public.
Yet the saga may still not end well for either of them.
Badenoch will be buoyant about the way in which events unfolded. She has eliminated her rival and enforced discipline.
The catch? Jenrick’s defenestration creates a vacancy in the Conservative Party for a future leader. Having a clear successor can help to stop others misbehaving and jockeying for position. Expect turbulence after May’s local elections.
As for Jenrick… his new boss Nigel Farage says he wants experience and a big tent. But Farage has shown a dislike for tall poppies. Jenrick’s bargaining power was damaged in the ambush, leaving him bruised. I’m issuing a yellow weather warning.
Meanwhile, Farage must persuade voters that Reform UK remainsanti-establishment, despite welcoming dozens of Tories familiar from the last government.
Spoiler alert: Reform will emerge jubilant from May’s elections. What is now clear is that Farage no longer wants to beat the Conservative Party but annihilate it. This week’s poison and character assassinations make the chance of an electoral pact vanishingly small.
So the future of Britain’s right-wing politics is at stake over the next four months.
Will centrist forces fight back – or populism prevail?
The answer could shape our country over the next decade.
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