Can hosts Morocco secure their first Africa Cup of Nations success since 1976? Look ahead to the 2025 AFCON final with our Senegal vs Morocco prediction and preview.
Senegal vs Morocco: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer has Morocco as the favourites to win only their second AFCON title, doing so in 55.4% of pre-match simulations. Senegal star Sadio Mané has created the most chances in the tournament (18), all from open play. It is the most chances created from open play on record (since 2010) in a single AFCON edition by a player. Brahim Díaz (five goals) could become the first Moroccan player to be the outright top scorer at a single AFCON.It promises to be a fantastic atmosphere at Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium in Rabat on Sunday as hosts Morocco take on Senegal in the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations final.
Morocco will play in just their second AFCON final, and their first since 2004 when they were beaten 2-1 by Tunisia. They won what remains their only AFCON title in 1976, though that tournament ended with a four-team group, so there was no actual ‘final’.
Walid Regragui’s side – who have been favourites to win the competition with the Opta supercomputer throughout – faced a nervy ending to their semi-final with Nigeria, but Youssef En-Nesyri’s winning penalty in the shootout sent them through after a goalless 120 minutes to scenes of joy in the stands and on the pitch.
There is one more game to go for Morocco as they aim to win their second AFCON title, with an in-form Senegal awaiting in the final. The Lions of Teranga are also looking for their second AFCON success, having won it in 2021.
Sadio Mané rolled back the years with a superb finish to decide their semi against Egypt, with the 33-year-old helping to eliminate his former Liverpool teammate Mohamed Salah in the process.
With his winning goal, Mané became the ninth player to score more than 10 goals (11) at the Africa Cup of Nations, while only four players have ever scored more in the competition’s history (Samuel Eto’o – 18, Laurent Pokou – 14, Rashidi Yekini – 13, Hassan El-Shazly – 12).
Mané has also created the most chances (18) at the 2025 AFCON, with all 18 coming from open play – it’s the most chances created from open play on record (since 2010) in a single edition by a player.
Senegal have looked impressive and have been especially incisive at this tournament. Pape Thiaw’s men have played 398 line-breaking passes in total, at least 107 more than any other team.
Captain Idrissa Gueye has played 92 of them, at least 24 more than any other player at AFCON 2025, so Morocco will need to keep an eye on the experienced Everton midfielder.
Morocco’s main danger man is likely to be Brahim Díaz, who is looking to become the first Moroccan player to be the outright top scorer at a single Africa Cup of Nations. The Real Madrid forward currently leads the way with five goals, ahead of Victor Osimhen and Salah (both four).
Díaz has scored in five of his six matches at the 2025 AFCON, and could become the first player in the tournament’s history to score in six different matches in a single edition.
Morocco’s Ayoub El Kaabi has contributed three goals at the tournament, but his hard work off the ball has also been key. His tally of 200 pressures applied in the final third at the 2025 AFCON is at least 29 more than any other player.
Like many finals, it could well be a tight affair. The last 13 AFCON finals have either been decided by a single goal or have gone to penalties.
In addition to that, among teams to play more than five AFCON matches since the 2019 edition, no team has lost fewer games than Senegal or Morocco (both two). They are also the two teams to have conceded the fewest goals per game on average in this time (Senegal – 0.3, 8/24 and Morocco – 0.53, 10/19).
Morocco have conceded the fewest goals of any team at AFCON 2025 (one) and have kept four consecutive clean sheets in the competition for the first time. Only Côte d’Ivoire (6 in 2012 and 5 in 1992) and Cameroon (5 in 2002) have ever kept more clean sheets in a row in a single AFCON edition. On all three of those occasions, that team ended up lifting the trophy.
Senegal will be without their captain, Kalidou Koulibaly, through suspension, though he may have missed the game anyway after coming off injured in the semi-final win over Egypt. Habib Diarra will also be unable to play after receiving a second yellow card of the tournament in that game.
Morocco do not have any suspensions, so should be at full strength for their biggest game since their run to the semi-finals at the 2022 World Cup.
Senegal vs Morocco Head-to-Head
This will be the first ever meeting between Senegal and Morocco at the Africa Cup of Nations, making it the first AFCON final in which two teams will face each other for the first time since South Africa vs Tunisia in 1996.
Though the two nations met in last year’s African Nations Championship, that tournament was only for players from their own nation’s league.
Otherwise, Senegal and Morocco have not played one another since a friendly in October 2020, which the Atlas Lions won 3-1 thanks to goals from Selim Amallah, En-Nesyri and Youssef El Arabi.
Senegal vs Morocco Prediction
Morocco were the pre-tournament favourites to go all the way, and that hasn’t changed ahead of the final.
The AFCON hosts have a 55.4% chance of lifting the trophy on Sunday, according to the Opta supercomputer, to Senegal’s 44.6% likelihood.
Morocco won the game inside 90 minutes in 41.2% of the supercomputer’s 10,000 pre-match simulations, while the Lions of Teranga did in 29.4%. Exactly the same percentage of sims (29.4%) saw the game head to extra-time after a draw in 90 minutes.
Senegal vs Morocco Predicted Lineups
Senegal: Édouard Mendy, Krépin Diatta, Abdoulaye Seck, Moussa Niakhaté, El Hadji Malick Diouf, Idrissa Gueye, Lamine Camara, Pape Gueye, Iliman Ndiaye, Sadio Mané, Nicolas Jackson.
Head Coach: Pape Thiaw
Morocco: Yassine Bounou, Achraf Hakimi, Nayef Aguerd, Adam Masina, Noussair Mazraoui, Neil El Aynaoui, Bilal El Khannouss, Ismael Saibari, Brahim Díaz, Abde Ezzalzouli, Ayoub El Kaabi.
Head Coach: Walid Regragui
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2025 AFCON Final Preview: Senegal vs Morocco Prediction Opta Analyst.
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