We look ahead to Sunday’s Premier League clash at Villa Park with our Aston Villa vs Everton prediction and preview. The most-played fixture in top-flight history takes place for the 216th time.
Aston Villa vs Everton: The Key Stats
With a 64.4% win likelihood, Aston Villa are the Opta supercomputer’s big favourites. Everton have lost each of their last four Premier League away games against Villa. Only Jérémy Doku (39) has created more chances from open play than former Villa man Jack Grealish (36) in the Premier League this season.When Aston Villa visited Hill Dickinson Stadium in September, Everton were riding high after back-to-back victories and Unai Emery’s team were yet to score a goal in the Premier League.
That game finished 0-0, though Everton could certainly consider themselves unfortunate not to have won. They had 20 shots and generated chances worth 2.08 expected goals to Villa’s 0.54 xG. However, the Toffees only managed to have two attempts on target, and on one of those occasions, Emiliano Martínez pulled off a fantastic save to deny Michael Keane.
Villa went on to score their first goal of the campaign the following week, in a 1-1 draw against Sunderland, and they haven’t looked back since. They have won 13 Premier League matches since, more than any other team in that timeframe, and have scored 32 goals, second only to Manchester City (36), despite registering just 21.9 xG. Only four teams, meanwhile, have conceded fewer goals than Villa (19) in that time.
Everton, on the other hand, have found goals hard to come by, and that performance against Villa back in September probably sums up the Toffees’ bluntness up front.
David Moyes’ team have scored just 23 goals in their 21 games this term. Their 23.6 xG ranks 15th in the division.
Everton are reportedly in the market for a striker this month, and while there is arguably a greater need at full-back, there is no doubt that Thierno Barry and Beto, who is the joint-second poorest performing forward in the Premier League this term when it comes to his goals-to-xG differential (-2.5), have struggled to offer the kind of threat the Toffees need if they are to turn a decent first half of the season into something greater.
Ahead of Sunday’s clash at Villa Park, Moyes’ men have won just one of their last six games, and while Villa are hunting UEFA Champions League qualification, if not a title tilt, Everton’s focus is on remaining in with a shout of European football. They sit 12th, but given the congested nature of the league, find themselves just four points off Brentford in fifth.
However, with key players Iliman Ndiaye and Idrissa Gueye away at the Africa Cup of Nations – Senegal will play against Morocco in the final in the hours after this contest at Villa Park – and Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall and Jarrad Branthwaite absent due to injury, Moyes remains without several of his best players.
Jack Grealish, too, was absent as Everton capped off a difficult week by going down 3-0 on penalties to Sunderland in the FA Cup last time out.
Grealish has not really maintained the levels he displayed in his first few Everton appearances after joining on loan from Man City in the summer, though he still has eight goal involvements to his name this term (two goals, six assists).
The ex-Villa star has created 36 chances from open play in the Premier League in 2025-26, which is a tally bettered only by City flyer Jérémy Doku (39).
Grealish, who has been fouled a league-leading 52 times, created five chances against his old club in the reverse fixture four months ago, and assuming he features on Sunday, will be determined to strut his stuff at his former stomping ground as Everton look to get back on course.
And Moyes may well be pleased to get back on the road. Everton have won just one of their last six home fixtures across all competitions, but they have kept a clean sheet in four of their last five Premier League away games. They are looking to keep three in a row on the road for the first time since May 2021 (four under Carlo Ancelotti).
That run has included wins at Nottingham Forest (2-0), Bournemouth (1-0) and Manchester United (1-0), as well as a 0-0 draw with Burnley in a drab affair just after Christmas. Their only defeat in that time came at Chelsea (2-0), the game in which Dewsbury-Hall suffered an injury that has hampered Everton in the past month.
Since Moyes returned to the club just over a year ago, Everton have won nine of their 19 Premier League away games (D4 L6). Their previous nine away wins had come over a 65-game spell (D21 L35) across three different managers (Rafael Benítez, Frank Lampard and Sean Dyche).
But they are going up against a Villa team who are fearsome at home.
Villa have won their last 11 games at Villa Park in all competitions. They last had a longer run between March and October 1983 (14), while they last had a longer streak in the same season between October and February in 1971-72 (12).
And while Villa fans will be hoping Grealish does not come back to haunt them, the hosts should be confident of getting at an Everton backline that will be operating at bare bones due to the absence of Branthwaite, Keane and Séamus Coleman.
Everton have kept eight clean sheets this season, conceding 25 goals, but their 30.8 xGA suggests they have been fortunate not to ship more.
Looking to exploit any weaknesses will be Villa’s talisman, Morgan Rogers. The England international has scored more goals (eight) and laid on more assists (six) than any other Villa player in all competitions this season, having a hand in 10 goals (seven goals, three assists) in his last 12 starts.
Rogers scored what turned out to be the winner against Tottenham in the FA Cup last weekend, with Emiliano Buendía also on target for the Villans.
Buendía has been involved in 10 goals in all competitions this season (six goals, four assists), his joint-best return in a single campaign for Villa along with 2021-22 (four goals, six assists); one of his goals that term came in a 1-0 win over Everton at Villa Park.
Aston Villa vs Everton Head-to-Head
This is the most-played fixture in the history of the English top tier, and Sunday’s game will be the 216th league meeting between these clubs.
Villa have certainly had the better of it in recent times. They are unbeaten in all 13 of their Premier League games against Everton since their return to the division in 2019 (W9 D4).
Everton have lost each of their last four Premier League away games against Villa, their longest losing run at Villa Park since between October 1995 and April 2001 (six). The corresponding fixture last term saw Ollie Watkins and Jhon Durán score as Emery’s team came from 2-0 down to win 3-2.
Villa have kept more Premier League clean sheets against Everton than any other opponent (25) and have shut the Toffees out in eight of their last 10 meetings.
Aston Villa vs Everton Prediction
The Opta supercomputer makes Villa the big favourites, with a 64.4% win probability.
Everton came out on top in just 16.6% of the model’s data-led sims, while there is a 19% chance of a draw.
Aston Villa vs Everton Predicted Lineups
Aston Villa: Marco Bizot, Matty Cash, Ezri Konsa, Pau Torres, Ian Maatsen, Youri Tielemans, Lamare Bogarde, Emiliano Buendía, Morgan Rogers, John McGinn, Ollie Watkins.
Head coach: Unai Emery
Everton: Jordan Pickford, Nathan Patterson, James Tarkowski, Jake O’Brien, Vitalii Mykolenko, James Garner, Merlin Röhl, Dwight McNeil, Harrison Armstrong, Jack Grealish, Thierno Barry.
Manager: David Moyes
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Saturday at St James’ Park, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Aston Villa vs Everton Prediction: Jack Grealish Heads Home as Toffees Aim to End Villa Park Jinx Opta Analyst.
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