Tottenham are considered the clear favourites by the Opta supercomputer when they welcome West Ham on Saturday. Look ahead to the game at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium with our Tottenham vs West Ham prediction and preview.
Tottenham vs West Ham: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer rates Tottenham as strong favourites, with a win probability of 60.8% to West Ham’s 18.6%. West Ham have lost all six of their London derbies this season. Six of Tottenham’s seven Premier League victories this campaign have been to nil.Thomas Frank will hope to inflict more London-derby misery on West Ham to give Tottenham’s flagging fortunes a much-needed boost.
Spurs were knocked out of the FA Cup by Aston Villa last weekend to crank up the growing pressure on Frank, whose side are 14th in the Premier League and have won just one of their past seven games in all competitions ahead of Saturday’s contest at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium.
The situation is even more desperate for Nuno Espírito Santo and the Hammers, who are seven points adrift of safety in 18th.
West Ham are winless in their last 10 Premier League games (D4 L6). It marks their longest run without a win since a run of 11 between December 2006 and March 2007, with the Irons losing 4-3 to Spurs in their 11th game in that stretch.
Even more troubling for West Ham is the fact they have lost all six of their Premier League London derbies this campaign. Only two sides in English top-flight history have ever lost seven-plus consecutive all-London matches – Fulham (13 from August 2018 to November 2020) and Queens Park Rangers (7 from August 1995 to January 1996).
Coincidentally, this will be Nuno’s third straight Premier League game against a side he has previously managed in the competition, losing 3-0 to Wolves and 2-1 to Nottingham Forest. He will be just the third manager to have such a run in the competition after Roy Hodgson in May/August 2018 (against West Brom, Fulham and Liverpool while at Crystal Palace), and Sam Allardyce in March 2021 (against Everton, Newcastle and Palace while at West Brom).
Nuno has a decent record against Tottenham, having won three of his five Premier League games against them (L2), and was victorious with Forest in April last season.
Moreover, Spurs are in abysmal form on their own turf, having won just four of their last 24 Premier League home games (D6 L14). Their two home wins this season represents their lowest ever after 10 games in a league campaign.
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1 day ago Ryan BensonSix of Spurs’ seven league victories this term have been to nil. Indeed, they have won only one of their last 21 league games when conceding at least once (D6 L14), beating Leeds United 2-1 in October.
This game could be won or lost in the air, with West Ham conceding a league-high 11 headed goals in the Premier League this term. By contrast, only Arsenal (9) have scored more headers than Tottenham (8). West Ham have also shipped more goals from corners than any other side (12), while no team have scored more than Spurs (11).
Frank could hand a Tottenham debut to Conor Gallagher following his arrival from Atletico Madrid, but ex-Hammer Mohammed Kudus, Rodrigo Bentancur and Richarlison will definitely miss out.
Lucas Paquetá could miss for West Ham with a back injury, and Mateus Fernandes is also being assessed. Lukasz Fabianski and Konstantinos Mavropanos are definitely absent.
Tottenham vs West Ham Head-to-Head
West Ham do not have the best record against Tottenham in recent times, winning just one of the last eight league encounters between the teams (D3 L4).
However, that victory did come at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium – a 2-1 triumph in December 2023.
Spurs were 3-0 victors over the Hammers at the London Stadium in September. They could complete the league double over their rivals for the first time since the 2019-20 campaign.
Tottenham vs West Ham Prediction
Tottenham’s shoddy home record has not dampened the Opta supercomputer’s view that they will emerge victorious, with Frank’s men given a 60.8% chance of victory.
West Ham, conversely, are given a 18.6% chance of winning, with the draw ranked as a 20.6% probability.
In terms of the season overall, Spurs – who are 14th in the actual table – are most likely to place 13th (12.8%). The probability of Champions League qualification via the league is diminishing, with fourth a 0.7% chance and fifth 1.9%.
For West Ham, the situation is increasingly desperate. Nuno’s side have just an 11.1% chance of avoiding relegation according to the supercomputer.
Tottenham vs West Ham Predicted Lineups
Tottenham: Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Djed Spence, João Palhinha, Archie Gray, Xavi Simons, Wilson Odobert, Mathys Tel, Randal Kolo Muani.
Head Coach: Thomas Frank
West Ham: Alphonse Areola, Aaron Wan-Bissaka, Jean-Clair Todibo, Max Kilman, Ollie Scarles, Tomás Soucek, Freddie Potts, Lucas Paquetá, Jarrod Bowen, Crysencio Summerville, Valentín Castellanos.
Head Coach: Nuno Espírito Santo
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Tottenham vs West Ham Prediction: Can Either Under-Fire Manager Ease the Pressure? Opta Analyst.
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