The latest studies provided to the Greeley City Council regarding the Catalyst and Cascadia projects indicate the city could be in a unique position to capitalize on the region’s existing growth.
At Tuesday’s work session, the city council received the final drafts of four independent studies commissioned in August by Hotel and Leisure Advisors, Economics & Planning Systems Inc. and Zonda to provide a clearer picture of the Catalyst project. The project looks to construct a hotel, water park and arena for the Colorado Eagles hockey team in west Greeley and is the subject of a special election on Feb. 24.
Two of the studies presented on Tuesday, a feasibility study and an economic impact study, were previously released in draft form by local issue committees — one that supports the projects and another that’s opposed them. The newly released studies examined the commercial demand the project is projected to generate and whether planned housing in the area could accommodate the proposed influx of households or destabilize the area.
The Economics & Planning Systems study evaluated long-term commercial demand in west Greeley, focusing on retail, office and visitor-serving uses associated with population growth and the Catalyst project, including the arena and resort. According to the study, the area surrounding the Catalyst and Cascadia developments are projected to welcome 45,000 new households by 2045.
This residential growth will create demand for regional and neighborhood retail anchored by grocery stores. According to the study, the Catalyst project is poised to capture 20% of that retail demand and another 15% of office space development.
Councilman Johnny Olson and Councilwoman Deb DeBoutez questioned these catchment numbers, showing concerns about what they described as large leaks to surrounding areas.
“The report says that the sub area is well positioned to capture 20% of the retail space that is within the regional trade area, which is a great big area. It goes west to Highway 287, which is in west Loveland, all the way out to the east to our county border,” DeBoutez said. “That’s problematic. We’re spending our Greeley citizens’ money and supporting a much larger regional area.”
Matt Prosser of Economics & Planning Systems Inc. explained that the estimate was conservative but considerable, given nearby competitors such as Loveland and Johnstown.
Olson’s concerns focused on the 15% office space catchment, particularly after Prosser explained that the area’s current catchment estimate is already 15%. Prosser further explained that this remains a conservative estimate, driven by anticipated local demand and offset by leakage to nearby competitors.
This catchment estimate is limited to the Catalyst and Cascadia area, but the expected retail and office space growth in the regional trade area extends to the rest of Greeley. The rest of the city could capture additional growth elsewhere, Prosser added, but the Catalyst and Cascadia area would conservatively capture 15%.
The residential-use property study confirmed that the proposed project area should continue to support the growing housing demand due to easier access to employment centers. At the project’s peak, the west Greeley area could support 1,148 homes if developed, according to the study.
In addition to the studies, the city provided the council with a general project update, noting that the arena seating estimates are now 8,574 for hockey games and 10,510 for concerts. Anticipated event types were also presented, including big-ticket events such as professional bull riding, monster truck shows and Disney on Ice shows.
The hockey arena is now projected to attract 500,000 visitors annually, and the hotel and water park are projected to generate 108,000 overnight stays. The water park is estimated to attract 50,000 annual visitors who will not stay at the hotel.
Councilwoman Melissa McDonald continued to emphasize the potential for youth hockey.
“I think we keep forgetting to talk about the youth hockey and how much traffic that is gonna bring to this area,” McDonald said. “One of my customers is a hockey mom, and she drives to South Denver for 45 minutes on the ice for their team. That’s ridiculous when we can have it right in our own backyard.”
The city has completed 90% of the design work for the Catalyst project and 30% of the documents required to begin construction. The city anticipates that the design will be completed by Feb. 28 and the construction documents by June 18.
By Feb. 28, $68.6 million of the $115 million from the certificates of participation (COPs) will have been spent, city staff reported Tuesday. The remaining amount will be spent by April, and the revenue bond financing that will fund the remainder of the project and pay off the COPs is expected to be finalized by June 4.
A fifth and final study will be presented to the council during its work session on Jan. 27, outlining the infrastructure impacts and fair-share cost responsibilities for development within the project area. This will provide the council with a complete picture of the project’s feasibility and help set the pace of infrastructure development in west Greeley.
Until this final study is released and the city has had time to analyze all the studies together, Greeley Communications and Engagement Director Winna Ironkwe cautioned that the studies should not be viewed in isolation. Each study, she explained during a press briefing on Wednesday, is only part of the puzzle, and until the city processes the fifth study, they won’t have a clear picture of the project or how it will move forward.
The city will hold a special election for ballot measure 1A on Feb. 24, giving voters the opportunity to decide whether to repeal the zoning for the Catalyst and Cascadia properties. This wouldn’t have a direct impact on project timelines, Ironkwe said, as work unrelated to the zoning could continue, but the election would have a broader effect that the city has contingencies for.
“I think there is a cause and effect across the board, but I wouldn’t say it’s a direct point from A to B on something like that,” Ironkwe said. “There are a number of pieces obviously tied to the zoning of the land, but it’s also still a vote on the zoning of the land. So things that fall outside of what the zoning does and does not allow for aren’t necessarily going to be impacted in the same way.”
The city will begin mailing ballots to voters on Feb. 3, and ballots will be due by 7 p.m. Feb. 24, either by mail or by depositing them at a ballot drop-off box. If voters choose to mail in their ballots, they will need to apply postage and allow enough time for the U.S. Postal Service to deliver the ballots, as postmarks will not count.
For more information about the special election, go to bit.ly/SpecialElection26.
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