Tomorrow is the open of the 2026 International Free Agent signing period, which runs through December 15, but most of the action will take place on Day One. So stay tuned for a whole lot of signings tomorrow.
When we talk about IFA, we’re talking about international prospects – primarily from Latin America – signing their first professional contracts with MLB organizations. Clubs have a hard-capped bonus pool with which to work ($6,679,200 for the Cubs, about $1.3 million less than the largest pools, which go to small-market clubs), and from which they can dole out signing bonuses.
Because the system incentivizes early signing, many deals are agreed to years before they can officially be inked. In other words, we already know about some of the Cubs’ signings.
We also know that the Cubs have tweaked their strategy ever so slightly, opting for a larger number of semi-pricey signings, as opposed to how they’ve historically operated with a smaller number of seven-figure signings. The Cubs have just one forthcoming prospect in the top-50 of bonuses over at BA, but six in the top-100.
An important note on ranking IFA prospects and bonuses ahead of tomorrow’s big reveals. You already know that, in many cases, bonus deals are reached years before the player is actually eligible to sign (at age 16(!)), so it’s often the case that the size of the bonus is not reflective of the player’s talent in either direction at the time of signing. The closer the signing comes to the open of the IFA period, the smaller the bonus tends to be, but the better the scouting/projection tends to be. It’s a tricky balance, because if you don’t strike early, you might miss out on the best talents in the class. But striking too early also risks locking your team – and your hard-capped bonus pool – into a poor allocation of resources.
Relatedly, Baseball America reminds us of another reason why scouting and ranking IFA prospects at the time of signing can be very difficult:
“Once a player reaches a deal to sign with a team, that player typically stops going to open showcases. And while there are times when scouts from other teams will see that player, the looks at those players in a competitive environment are limited. Rockies shortstop Ethan Holliday, the No. 4 overall pick in the 2025 MLB Draft, committed to Oklahoma State when he was 14 in 2021, four years before his draft year. Every major league team continued to scout Holliday leading up to the 2025 draft, whereas with international prospects, it’s common for scouts to have not seen some of the top players in the class in years—or ever, in some cases.”
That’s how you wind up, for a recent example, with a prospect like Jesus Made receiving only the 39th largest bonus in the 2024 class, being ranked at the time as only the 23rd best prospect in the class by MLB Pipeline … and then almost immediately exploding as one of the best prospects in baseball. How nice for the Brewers.
Scouting young prospects is very difficult under the best of circumstances. Getting great, long, competitive looks at these players before they become professionals is all the more difficult.
That is all to say, while tomorrow’s signings will be an enjoyable event, and we’ll hear SOME things about these prospects, the reality is that we’re not really going to know what the Cubs do and do not have for a very long time in most cases. That’s especially true for some of the lower-bonus types who’ve not been all over the scouting circuit for a long time, and aren’t generally as well-known by the industry. If the Cubs have loaded up on those types this year – at least relative to past years – then shaking loose valuable information and data may take even longer.
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