We look ahead to Tuesday’s League Cup semi-final first leg at St. James’ Park with our Newcastle vs Man City prediction and preview. Will either team take an advantage back to the Etihad Stadium?
Newcastle vs Man City: The Key Stats
Manchester City are favourites to take a first-leg advantage back to the Etihad, winning 41.6% of the Opta supercomputer’s pre-match simulations. Newcastle have progressed from all three of their EFL Cup semi-final ties, the best 100% record in the competition’s history. Man City have progressed from each of their last six EFL Cup semi-final ties, going on to win the trophy each time.Current holders Newcastle United host Manchester City in the first leg of their EFL Cup semi-final on Tuesday.
Both teams have fond recent memories of this competition, and will be hoping to establish an advantage in the tie ahead of the return leg at the Etihad Stadium on 4 February.
Man City won the EFL Cup in four successive years between 2018 and 2021, while Newcastle ended their 70-year wait for major silverware last season in the competition with a 2-1 victory over Liverpool in the final.
The Magpies, who also beat Nottingham Forest, Chelsea, Brentford and Arsenal on route to glory, have now won each of their last nine matches in the competition. Excluding shootout victories, only Liverpool (11 between 1994 and 1995) and Arsenal (10 between 1987 and 1988) have won more consecutively in the EFL Cup.
Victories this term over Brentford, Tottenham Hotspur and Fulham have guided Eddie Howe’s side into a third EFL Cup semi-final in four seasons. Newcastle will be aiming to maintain the competition’s best 100% record in last-four ties, having won all three of their previous semi-finals.
Lewis Miley’s 92nd-minute winner over Fulham in the last round started Newcastle’s recent trend of late drama at St James’ Park, where Bruno Guimarães and Harvey Barnes struck in stoppage time to snatch a last-gasp 4-3 victory over Leeds United in the Premier League last week.
Anthony Gordon then scored a 95th-minute equaliser from the penalty spot to force extra-time in Saturday’s FA Cup third-round thriller against Bournemouth, who then forced a penalty shootout with a dramatic leveller of their own in the 122nd minute.
Nevertheless, Aaron Ramsdale was the hero, with his save from Bafodé Diakité sealing a 7-6 victory for Newcastle, who have now won five of their last seven shootouts in all competitions.
As for Man City, they enjoyed a much smoother passage into the fourth round, courtesy of a ruthless 10-1 rout of Exeter City at the Etihad.
New signing Antoine Semenyo was among the scorers as the Citizens recorded their biggest FA Cup win since defeating Huddersfield Town by the same scoreline in 1987.
City were also the first English top-flight side to score 10 or more goals in a single match in any competition, since Liverpool beat Fulham 10-0 in the 1986-87 EFL Cup.
Pep Guardiola’s side have netted seven times and conceded just once on their way to the semi-finals of this season’s EFL Cup, while beating Huddersfield, Swansea City and Brentford.
City have progressed from their last six EFL Cup semi-final ties, going on to win the trophy each time, while they have also prevailed from their last two games against the competition’s title holders – beating Birmingham City 2-0 in September 2011, and Liverpool 3-2 in December 2022.
However, only twice in EFL Cup history have the title holders fallen at the semi-final stage (Tottenham in 1971-72 and Blackburn Rovers in 2002-23). That will encourage Newcastle, especially with City in the midst of a defensive crisis, with Josko Gvardiol, Rúben Dias and John Stones all out injured.
Guardiola will also be without Savinho, Oscar Bobb and Mateo Kovačić. However, Semenyo will be able to feature despite playing for Bournemouth earlier in the competition. Under EFL rule 6.4, a player is allowed to play for up to two clubs in the competition in a season.
Newcastle also have a centre-half shortage of sorts, with Fabian Schär recently suffering ligament damage against Leeds, joining Dan Burn in the treatment room.
William Osula and Anthony Elanga are also missing for Howe, who may opt for Yoane Wissa to lead his line. The former Brentford forward has scored five goals in his last six EFL Cup starts, including his first for the Magpies in their quarter-final win over Fulham.
Newcastle vs Man City Head-to-Head
Newcastle have already beaten Manchester City in the Premier League this season (2-1), and are looking to record multiple victories over them in the same campaign for the first time since 1983-84.
The Magpies have also won each of the last two EFL Cup ties between the sides, winning 2-0 in October 2014 and 1-0 in September 2023.
Newcastle vs Man City Prediction
The Opta supercomputer marginally favours an away win, with Man City victorious in 41.6% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations.
Newcastle’s chances of claiming a first-leg advantage are rated at 32.9%, with a draw to leave the tie tantalisingly close given a 25.5% likelihood.
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Tuesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Newcastle vs Man City Prediction: Can EFL Cup Holders Earn Semi-Final First-Leg Advantage? Opta Analyst.
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