Last night, while the Bears were engineering one of the greatest playoff comebacks in league history, the Chicago Cubs were making one of the biggest free agent signings in franchise history, handing Alex Bregman a five-year, $175 million deal, complete with a full no-trade clause and something like $70 million in deferrrals (bringing the present day value of the contract down to around $150M).
We got into the signing last night, the deferral details this morning, and the celebratory recapping shortly thereafter. Now it’s time to get back to work: What does the Cubs lineup look like with Alex Bregman in the fold?
Even assuming no one else is traded and everyone is healthy (two big IFs), this isn’t a very easy thing to project right out of the gate. Because while we know where everyone will play, there are a few outstanding questions to be answered about the batting order itself. But that’s what we’re here to figure out, so let’s try our best.
First, the defensive alignment off which I’ll be working today:
C: Amaya/Kelly (R) 1B: Michael Busch (L) 2B: Nico Hoerner (R) 3B: Alex Bregman (R) SS: Dansby Swanson (R) LF: Ian Happ (S) CF: Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) RF: Seiya Suzuki (R) DH: Moises Ballesteros (L)Bench: Amaya/Kelly, Tyler Austin, Matt Shaw, and … maybe Kevin Alcantara?
© Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn ImagesNow, here are the outstanding questions in my head that make the Cubs lineup difficult to predict this far out from the season:
Who is leading off? Ian Happ has a history there; he’s also a switch-hitter, gets on-base, isn’t slow, sees lots of pitches, and doesn’t have the power he used to, making his bat better suited for leadoff than the middle-of-the-order. However, Michael Busch took over the leadoff job at the end of last season and really ran with it. He’s also potentially the Cubs’ best hitter, so I’m not sure how much lower in the order you want him (certainly no lower than third). Which Pete Crow-Armstrong are we getting this year? If PCA hits the way he did in the first half of the season, he’s also a top-half-of-the-order guy, for the power alone. He’s also a lefty, so you’d have to coordinate him and Busch, so as not to stack them together, probably separated by Seiya Suzuki. Is Moises Ballesteros the full-time DH? And if so, is he going to pick back up where he was last season? I can imagine a world where Ballesteros is the everyday DH, where he is a part-time DH, and where he begins the season in Iowa (doubtful, but not impossible). The everyday DH job seems most likely, but maybe there’ll be days when the Cubs want to put Shaw at third base and Bregman at DH (potentially better defense + rest for Bregman being the goal). But let’s say Ballesteros IS the everyday DH for the purposes of this post, does Craig Counsell have the guts to hit a guy who just turned 22 in the top-half of the order? Plus, he’s ALSO a lefty, so you would want to separate him from PCA and Busch, as well. How good is Alex Bregman going to be with the bat? Is he the guy he was before his injury (156 wRC+), the guy he was after (100 wRC+), or the guy he projects to be in 2026: somewhere in the 110-120 wRC+ range? That changes a LOT. Is Nico Hoerner still our two-hole hitter? He dialed up his offensive production in the second half last year, slugging way more than usual and maintaining a high average. But he moved into the two-spot more out of necessity than design. Will that stay?With all of that in mind, let’s run through a few different options and see which one we like best.
© Kamil Krzaczynski-Imagn ImagesPotential Cubs Lineup
Cubs Lineup #1
Assumptions: Michael Busch leads off, PCA is great at hitting again, the Cubs believe fully in Moises Ballesteros
Michael Busch, 1B (L) Seiya Suzuki, RF (R) Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF (L) Alex Bregman, 3B (R) Moises Ballesteros, DH (L) Nico Hoerner, 2B (R) Ian Happ, LF (S) Dansby Swanson, SS (R) Kelly/Amaya, C (R)This is basically an “everything ideal” scenario. In reality, I have a hard time imagining Ballesteros AND Pete Crow-Armstrong BOTH starting the year out in the top-5 spots of the batting order. The Cubs could get here eventually, though, and I think this is probably their “best” option if those assumptions are correct.
Cubs Lineup #2
Assumptions: Ian Happ leads off, PCA is an average bat, the Cubs slow play Ballesteros
Ian Happ, LF (S) Seiya Suzuki, RF (R) Michael Busch, 1B (L) Alex Bregman, 3B (R) Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF (L) Nico Hoerner, 2B (R) Moises Ballesteros, DH (L) Dansby Swanson, SS (R) Kelly/Amaya, C (R)This feels like a more realistic way to start the year. This lineup is a little safer and a little more “by the book.” It keeps Ian Happ in a familiar spot, it takes pressure off Moises Ballesteros *and* Pete Crow-Armstrong, and it features Seiya Suzuki, who absolutely does have the potential to be the Cubs’ best hitter – at least, in terms of power.
Cubs Lineup #3
Assumptions: The Cubs liked the way their lineup looked at the end of last season and want to try a version of that out again this year.
Michael Busch, 1B (L) Nico Hoerner, 2B (R) Ian Happ, LF (L) Seiya Suzuki, RF (R) Pete Crow-Armstrong, CF (L) Alex Bregman, 3B (R) Moises Ballesters, DH (L) Dansby Swanson, SS (R) Kelly/Amaya, C (R)From July 29 to the end of the season, Nico Hoerner slashed .313/.361/.431 (123 wRC+) with a 7.0% walk rate and a 7.4% strikeout rate. If THAT is the guy he is in 2026, you can convince me to bat him second, even in a lineup this loaded from top to bottom. Advanced analytics supported or not, Hoerner is a guy I want up to bat more often than not, especially with the game on the line. And those at-bats tend to go to guys hitting in the top few spots of the order.
But here’s the thing, in almost all of these lineups, I can imagine minor swaps or tweaks: Maybe Bregman is really hitting, so you want him as your top righty, not Suzuki or Hoerner. Maybe Moises Ballesteros breaks out, so you want him as second lefty (after Busch) not Happ or PCA. Maybe PCA is an absolute monster again, so you can’t imagine not having him in one of the top couple of spots. And so on.
And all of this ignores the presence of Matt Shaw, whose defense can be a factor in every game, and even Tyler Austin, who will probably get some starts against tough lefties.
But at the end of the day, I’m not stressing about it. This Cubs lineup is stacked. It has power, speed, and average ability. It has a very healthy mix of lefties and righties. It has two catchers with league-average+ upside. It has multiple options at DH, third, second, and short, depending on who’s resting. And so on. It is a full and complete group.
There are a dozen other ways to line these guys up (and we didn’t even consider a different lineup vs lefties, which is entirely possible). So let me know what you think about those options, or otherwise drop your preferred order in the comments below!
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