Kurtenbach: The 49ers offense was knocked down. This is how they get back up again ...Middle East

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Kurtenbach: The 49ers offense was knocked down. This is how they get back up again

It felt like the end of the season last Saturday, didn’t it?

The 49ers’ loss to the Seattle Seahawks wasn’t just a defeat; it was a gut-punch delivered with extreme prejudice.

    With the NFC West crown and the No. 1 seed dangling right there for the taking, the Niners were beaten to a pulp.

    It was, arguably, the single worst offensive performance of the Kyle Shanahan era. The machine that usually hums with ruthless efficiency looked broken, battered, and completely devoid of answers. It was enough to make everyone question the validity of the offensive explosion that defined the weeks leading up to Saturday’s rump-kicking.

    But before you go trying to sell off your Levi’s Stadium seat licenses, let me offer this:

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    All the credit in the world belongs to Mike Macdonald and that Seahawks defense. They are fast. They are violent. They are incredibly versatile. They don’t miss tackles. They don’t even bother with sub-packages because their base personnel — with a third, three-level safety and an elite cornerback that can also play linebacker better than anyone the Niners can trot out this upcoming Sunday — run with track stars and brawl with linemen.

    They came at San Francisco in ways NFL offenses simply don’t consider. How do you prepare for Nick Emmanwori? Wasn’t this league tailored to give the offense the advantage? Why does that defense have the upper hand?

    The bad news? The road to the Super Bowl almost certainly involves a rematch with those guys.

    The good news? There isn’t another team in the NFC playoffs that can do what Seattle does.

    Take the Niners’ Wild Card round opponent this weekend, the Philadelphia Eagles.

    On paper, the Eagles boast the second-best defense in the conference. And they are, indeed, formidable.

    But turn on the tape, and a more specific picture emerges. The Eagles are exceptionally susceptible to exactly the kind of football Shanahan wants to play.

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    It starts with Vic Fangio. The legendary defensive coordinator is stubborn about his philosophy. He puts more than six defenders in the box at the lowest rate in the entire NFL — a staggering 13 percent less than any other team. He knows this is a passing league, and so he’s set up to stop you from throwing the ball against him.

    But we know that Shanahan will take him up on that offer. This is the postseason after all; passing is a last resort.

    Opportunities on the ground for the 49ers on Sunday are evident, even to me: The Eagles’ defensive line is coached to fire off the ball and penetrate the backfield, and it’s paired with lighter linebackers — specifically Zach Baun. That’s a recipe for disaster against a disciplined, physical run game.

    In six games this season against playoff opponents, Philadelphia has allowed 162 yards per game. The Bears had two 100-yard rushers and piled up 281 on Black Friday.

    Make no mistake, Philadelphia is an elite pass defense. When opposing offenses are in the shotgun, the formation the Niners prefer, the Eagles boast the second-best pass defense in the league per NFL data.

    But hand the ball off from that same shotgun formation? The Eagles plummet to the ninth-worst defense in the NFL in EPA per play. Go under center, where the run threat is even more visceral, and the Eagles are merely a “good” defense — far from the “great” unit Seattle fielded Saturday.

    So, unless Fangio wants to change how he lines his guys up (I’m not holding my breath), the chess match could turn in Shanahan’s favor.

    The Eagles’ defense flows in unison, which looks pretty until it doesn’t. They are prone to overpursuit. Counter runs and read-options have been their kryptonite all season.

    And then there is the motion.

    Against Seattle, Shanahan’s trademark pre-snap window dressing meant absolutely nothing. The Seahawks’ disciplined defenders didn’t flinch. They didn’t chase ghosts. They stayed home, gap-true, and made every single tackle available to them.

    Philadelphia is different. The Eagles’ defensive line will gap-shift with motion. They react. They adjust. And that is where they can be manipulated.

    This week, Kyle Juszczyk’s “dash” motion out of the backfield might be the most essential tactic in the playbook. “Juice” can create manufactured confusion. He can force a gap shift that opens a lane before the ball is even snapped.

    And if Juszczyk can muddy the waters for those aggressive linebackers, and if Christian McCaffrey still has burst out of the backfield, the 49ers’ offense isn’t just going to stabilize, it’ll find its footing.

    Saturday was a nightmare, but Seattle is a unicorn. The rest of the NFC? They are just football teams with flaws waiting to be exploited.

    And nobody exploits a flaw quite like a cornered Shanahan.

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