Arsenal are six points clear at the top of the Premier League after 20 matches. But how often does a lead like that actually result in a title, and what does history suggest about their chances?
When Emiliano Buendía struck a last-minute winner for Aston Villa in early December, six different Arsenal players collapsed to the ground in despair. It felt like the moment their title charge might start to wobble. The rest of the league had been waiting for Arsenal to stumble, and here it was.
That defeat was only Arsenal’s second of the season, but it came just two games after a frustrating draw away to Chelsea, when Mikel Arteta’s side failed to win despite playing for almost an hour with a one-man advantage.
The chasing pack, led as ever by Manchester City, was closing in. After Matchday 15, Arsenal’s lead at the top of the table had shrunk to just two points over City in second, with a buoyant Aston Villa – in the midst of an eight-game winning run – only three points back in third. The pressure was building and the noise swelling.
But Arsenal have responded to that pressure excellently. Since losing at Villa Park, Arteta’s side have rattled off five straight league wins, including a nail-biting 3-2 win over Bournemouth at the weekend.
Rather than Arsenal buckling, it’s been their challengers who have faltered. Man City and Aston Villa both dropped points over the festive period, with Pep Guardiola’s side drawing their last two matches, and Arsenal beating Villa convincingly at the Emirates on Matchday 19.
So, after 20 games, what had only recently been a slender two-point lead has now grown into a six-point cushion. The table makes for very good reading for Arsenal supporters, with their side in a commanding position heading into the remainder of the season.
Historically speaking, a team finding themselves six points clear at the top of the table at this stage of a Premier League campaign is fairly rare.
The table below details the biggest leads held by sides after 20 games of a Premier League campaign (where both the team in first and second have each played 20 matches).
Prior to this season, there have been nine instances of a side leading by six points or more after both the teams in first and second have played exactly 20 matches. Of those nine seasons, the team leading by six or more points after 20 games has gone on to win the title on six occasions, a conversion rate of 66.6%.
Clearly then, it’s not a foregone conclusion that Arsenal convert their lead into a title from here. In fact, the only previous side to hold exactly a six-point lead after 20 matches, Manchester United in 1997-98, ultimately finished second. Funnily enough, it was Arsenal who beat them to the title that year.
Newcastle led by seven points at this stage in 1995-96, only to be overhauled by Manchester United, while Liverpool’s nine-point advantage after 20 games in 2018-19 was erased by Guardiola’s City. That season finished with City winning 14 consecutive matches to secure the title, and although this is a very different City team, they are still led by the same ruthless manager; there is always the chance that they once again embark on one of their title-winning runs to close out a campaign.
If Arsenal fans want a dose of positivity, though, the Opta supercomputer can provide it. Its current prediction gives Arsenal an 84.8% chance of lifting the trophy, almost the highest title probability it’s given any team at any point this season, and far greater than the historic 66.6% win rate.
Jonathan Manuel / Data AnalystOne element that will be factored into those calculations is the calibre of opposition that Arsenal have played to date. They have already played away games against six of the eight sides currently in positions two through nine in the table.
Still, Arsenal have been here before. In 2022-23, they held a five-point lead after 20 games at the top of the table, a gap that got as big as six points after MD21. And what happened? Another relentless pursuit from Guardiola and City, who eventually hunted Arsenal down.
Only until the title is mathematically secured will Arsenal supporters allow themselves to breathe a genuine sigh of relief. Even then, they’ll probably expect Pep Guardiola to chase them down.
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Six Points Clear After 20 Matches: What Does History Tell Us About Arsenal’s Title Chances? Opta Analyst.
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