We can’t say this is necessarily a comprehensive, behind-the-scenes examination of what the Chicago Cubs are doing this offseason, or what they will ultimately get done. So I wouldn’t take it for MUCH more than a chuckle right now. Well, kind of a gallows, sardonic chuckle anyway.
In a league-wide round-up rumor article at The Athletic, Ken Rosenthal and Will Sammon didn’t exactly offer Cubs fans a whole lot of hope about what comes next:
“Their fan base is waiting. And waiting. And waiting.
The Cubs have spent slightly more than $30 million on five free-agent relievers and brought first baseman Tyler Austin back from Japan for $1.25 million. But if they want to avoid a fan uprising at the Cubs Convention Jan. 16 to 18, at least one splash is necessary.
Like most teams, the Cubs did not value free-agent right-hander Tatsuya Imai highly. Imai’s three-year, $63 million guarantee from the Houston Astros was less than one-third of Tim Britton’s initial eight-year $190 million projection.
The industry-wide skepticism of Imai might very well be warranted. The Cubs, though, still need a starting pitcher (Zac Gallen?). And a top-flight bat to replace Tucker (Bregman?). Based on their recent history, it’s probably best to bet the under.”
Welp.
Heck, I really would bet the under on the Cubs landing BOTH a front-three starting pitcher and an impact bat, and I’ve said as much since the very start of the offseason. So I guess I can’t chuckle at that part, because it’s just fair and expected (even if we hate it).
Instead, what gets me is the fact that, in an article all about the things these many other clubs have done, are doing, or will do, the Cubs’ section is quite brief, and best summed up with something like, “Oh, you thought there was a huge offseason still ahead? Lol, nope.”
If the Cubs are determined to stay under the first tier of the luxury tax during the offseason, leaving some room for in-season moves (and to potentially go over during the season if the circumstances justify), then they might have available only $25 million or so in 2026 dollars available to commit. It sure seems like that should be enough to accomplish SOMETHING of note from here, but I think some concerns are justified.
It bears noting that this is a “competitive” team as currently constructed. They lost Kyle Tucker, though his mathematical contributions (4.5 WAR) to the 92-win 2025 team were muted a bit by the injury issues. The internal fall-off from Tucker to a combination of Moises Ballesteros and Owen Caissie, if it came to that, could plausibly be only a few wins. There is an argument that the Cubs’ median win projection for 2026, even without any further changes, would be in that 87, 88 range.
… but that kinda misses the point of an offseason, right? It’s an opportunity not only to replace what you’ve lost, but also to raise the ceiling of your projections, and also to raise the floor. This team is actually TOO GOOD to justify FAILING to improve it this offseason. We can hope the Cubs will get great performances again from a number of players, plus steps forward from the young guys, plus better health from the rotation. But hope is not a strategy, and the offseason is when you get to do that strategizing.
I’ve written recently about how important it is for the Cubs *at a minimum* to add an impactful starting pitcher, so that’s where I’ll continue to place the majority of my expectations. The Cubs simply cannot fail to bolster this rotation for the near, medium, and long-term. It’s an obvious need, and the market was absolutely replete with options in trade and in free agency. If we’re betting the under on the Cubs doing a lot from here, fine, but “acquire one good starting pitcher” needs to be just under whatever that imaginary line is.
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