Can Pep Guardiola’s side respond to another slip-up? We look ahead to Wednesday’s Premier League clash with our Man City vs Brighton prediction and preview.
Man City vs Brighton: The Key Stats
Manchester City claimed all three points against Brighton in a convincing 63.3% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer. Brighton have never won in 15 away league games against Man City – their longest such run and City’s best streak at home without losing. Erling Haaland has failed to score in his last three Premier League games but has never gone four top-flight starts in a row without a goal.Manchester City have little room for error when they host Brighton on Wednesday, having fallen six points behind Arsenal in the Premier League title race.
Pep Guardiola’s side seemed set to match Arsenal’s victory over Bournemouth with three points against Chelsea on Sunday, only for Enzo Fernández to equalise in second-half stoppage time.
Tijjani Reijnders had earlier put City ahead at the Etihad Stadium, though the hosts failed to close the game out, and have now failed to win two straight games for just the second time this season in the Premier League.
A goalless draw away to Sunderland preceded the late blow against Chelsea. However, Guardiola has only ever shared the points in three successive league matches twice in his managerial career, doing so in April 2017 and December 2023.
There may still be hope of City cutting the gap, with Arsenal at home to defending champions Liverpool a day later, and Guardiola is no stranger to chasing down Mikel Arteta’s title favourites.
Central to any hopes of a turnaround may be getting Erling Haaland back in scoring form – he has failed to find the net in his last three league outings. The Norwegian talisman has never failed to score in four successive top-flight starts, though.
And there may be no better opponent than Brighton for Haaland to find form. He has scored in each of his last four Premier League appearances against them, though City have failed to win any of the last three (D1 L2).
Only two players have scored in four in a row against an opponent while failing to end on the winning side – Jimmy Floyd Hasselbaink against Manchester United (D3 L1, 1998-2001) and Charlie Austin against Arsenal (D1 L3, 2014-2018).
Brighton’s defensive record may also provide the perfect opportunity for Haaland to end an unusually quiet period. They have shipped two goals in each of their last three away Premier League matches, last having a longer run of conceding 2+ goals between August and November 2022 (5).
There are positive omens in this fixture for City, too, given they have won 31 of their last 33 league matches played on a Wednesday (D1 L1). Guardiola’s side have also won their last 22 Wednesday games at home, the longest such winning run on a specific day of the week by any side in Premier League history.
Fabian Hürzeler’s side make the trip north on the back of Saturday’s 2-0 victory over Burnley that ended a six-game run without winning. Georginio Rutter and Yasin Ayari did the damage in a routine win at the Amex Stadium.
Danny Welbeck had to settle for a place among the substitutes last time out, having scored one penalty and missed another in a 2-2 draw against West Ham in Brighton’s last away trip. That spot-kick took his tally to seven goals in his last 13 away games in the competition.
However, the former Man Utd striker has never scored in nine league matches at the Etihad, managing just one shot on target. His goalless run on the blue side of Manchester marks the longest streak in his top-flight career without scoring at one stadium.
Welbeck’s experience may be vital if Brighton are to escape with anything, though, and his nous will pair nicely with James Milner. The midfielder celebrated his 40th birthday on Sunday, and should he appear here, he will be just the fifth outfielder to play in the Premier League while aged 40+, after Gordon Strachan (6), Teddy Sheringham (24), Kevin Phillips (4), and Ryan Giggs (6).
As for the rest of Hürzeler’s team news, Yankuba Minteh could return from a minor thigh issue. Mats Wieffer, Solly March and Carlos Baleba are expected to return later in January, while Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas remain longer-term absentees.
Guardiola has injury concerns over Josko Gvardiol and Rúben Dias after the pair limped off against Chelsea. Savinho and Nico González will also be assessed before Wednesday’s clash, while John Stones and Mateo Kovacic are injured. Rayan Aït-Nouri and Omar Marmoush remain away at the Africa Cup of Nations.
Man City vs Brighton Head-to-Head
Man City have never lost in 15 home league games against Brighton (W12 D3). That marks both the most they have faced a side without ever losing at home, and the most Brighton have played anyone on the road without ever winning.
Guardiola’s side have also scored in all 17 of their Premier League games against Brighton, their joint-best 100% scoring record against an opponent along with Bournemouth.
However, the Seagulls are unbeaten in their last three league games against City (W2 D1), having avoided defeat in just two of their first 14 against them in the competition (W1 D1 L12).
A late Brajan Gruda strike helped Hürzeler’s side to a 2-1 win in the reverse fixture in late August, after Milner’s penalty had cancelled out Haaland’s opener at the Amex.
Man City vs Brighton Prediction
Manchester City may have failed to win their last two games but the Opta supercomputer backed them to get back on track here.
The hosts won 63.3% of 10,000 pre-match simulations, far ahead of Brighton’s 17.2% chance of claiming all three points at the Etihad. The draw accounted for 19.5% of scenarios.
Man City vs Brighton Predicted Lineups
Manchester City: Gianluigi Donnarumma, Matheus Nunes, Abdukodir Khusanov, Nathan Aké, Nico O’Reilly, Bernardo Silva, Rodri, Tijjani Reijnders, Rayan Cherki, Phil Foden, Erling Haaland.
Head coach: Pep Guardiola
Brighton & Hove Albion: Bart Verbruggen, Joël Veltman, Jan Paul van Hecke, Lewis Dunk, Ferdi Kadioglu, Yasin Ayari, Diego Gómez, Brajan Gruda, Georginio Rutter, Kaoru Mitoma, Charalampos Kostoulas.
Head coach: Fabian Hürzeler
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
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Man City vs Brighton Prediction: Will Erling Haaland and City Get Over Mini-Slump Against Seagulls? Opta Analyst.
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